538's Latest Projection: SANDERS will get 1796 Delegates !!!

[bluewater]

538:

Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate.

Sanders: 1796

Biden: 818

Bloomberg: 771

Warren: 248

Buttigieg: 235

Klobuchar: 94

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

In order to win the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention in July, a candidate needs a majority of the pledged delegates. This would be about 1,990 pledged delegates according to 270 To Win. (Other sources say 1,991.) These all come from the caucuses and primaries.

So, 538 projects Sanders to be just 195 delegates shy of the 1991 needed to win going into the convention!

Also, Warren is projected to have 248 delegates.

Hence, 538 projects the Progressives will have 2044 delegates entering the convention to the Moderates, and that's ALL of them, 1918.

If these numbers hold up, there is no way to deny Sanders the 2020 nomination.

[Frasier Balzov]

1. Doesn't it depend on

what superdelegates and pledged-but-emancipated delegates do?

[NurseJackie]

2. Tainted results. Russia is helping Bernie... Facebook, Twitter, Poll manipulation.

Last edited Mon Feb 24, 2020, 08:11 AM - Edit history (1)

Donald Trump will get another four years. America will not elect a Socialist to be its president. Russia and the GOP will see to that.

ON EDIT: I am a mighty oak.

[HeartlandProgressive]

4. .

[Hortensis]

13. Russia is helping Sanders. Russia has been

helping Sanders Continuously without stopping since 2015. Our intelligence services say Russia has been working with an express purpose of using Sanders to defeat Democrats and re-elect Trump. This is known fact.

Here’s another fact: Russian counterintelligence calls the victims who unknowingly help them useful idiots. That’s Russia’s term. Both those they manage to delude into voting the way they want them to and those whose behaviors cluelessly assist anyway. They’ve been doing this to bring down governments in many nations for a long time, but obviously the United States is so far where they are achieving their greatest victories.

Way past time for everyone and anyone to be unknowing. This is 2016 all over again, Just a lot better from their viewpoint

[ehrnst]

75. +1000.

[musette_sf]

35. + 1

Yep.

[cheezmaka]

55. Sanders nomination equals 4 more years of Trump

The moderates and independents will not buy into "perceived socialism". Trump will have a "field day" making that contrast on the campaign trail...

[fallout87]

66. Yawn

Just more excuses from the losers. It's getting pretty sad.

[George II]

72. Just who are these so-called "losers"?

[rzemanfl]

74. Oh, FFS!

[USALiberal]

82. Lol, ok! Nt

[HeartlandProgressive]

3. Warren and Sanders would have more delegates than everyone else combined?

Oh my.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

21. The team needs to team up to form the unstoppable team!! GO BERNIE & ELIZABETH!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[mgcgulfcoast]

5. Bloomberg wont have anywhere near that many

But if those numbers are close to accurate it would be an unmitigated disaster to deny Sanders the nomination.

[apcalc]

6. It's a disaster either way imo. 4 more year of Trump.

[rzemanfl]

7. Bookmarking. n/t

[LostinRed]

11. So sad but true

😤

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

23. ZERO chance the DNC would push that... we have to defeat the Orange Menace!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Moderateguy]

8. According to this it says Sanders will have 45.20% of the delegates

I’d like to see him get 45% of the vote in more states before I am going to be convinced he’s going to get that many delegates. So far he’s got that only in Nevada

[bluewater]

10. You seem to be forgetting the 15% threshold to get delegates.

There will be candidates that do not reach the threshold, and hence do not get a share of any of the delegates in that state. (by and large)

I think the data guys at 538 sorta took that into consideration already when making their projections.

They do this sort of thing for a living, after all.

[LAS14]

9. Why "no way?" If 1796 is Sanders top number, then the rest...

... have to keep voting until a different majority is attained.

[Steelrolled]

71. The presumption is that enough of the Warren delegates would vote for Bernie on the 2nd round

Beyond that, there would be a lot of talking and dealing between the first and second vote. I think many delegates would understand that to deny Bernie the nomination to Bernie when he was very close to 50%, and with some distance between him the #2, would be a disaster and practically guarantee a loss in November.

[Celerity]

12. That is over 45% and far more than double anyone else. If he gets to that level and is denied

the party will tear itself apart. It will (even more than nominating him would do) 100% guarantee Trump is re-elected.

[bluewater]

14. Agreed. If the numbers hold.

Honestly, if Sanders has 700 to 1000 more delegates than the next candidate, denying him the nomination would blow up the party.

Not only would Trump win, but Democratic candidates at all levels would be impacted.

[musette_sf]

37. "denying him the nomination would blow up the party"?????

"denying" a non-Democrat the Democratic nomination would "blow up" the Democratic Party??

[bluewater]

39. Like it or not, Sanders is running as a Democrat and Democratic voters are voting for him.

But, hey, if Sanders actually comes in with a 1000 delegate lead as 538 is now projecting, just sit back and watch Trump get re-elected if Sanders does not come out of the convention as the nominee.

But it's basically a non-issue. Because if Sanders actually does come in with a 700 to 1000 deleate lead the superdelegates and other candidates will certainly put him over the top on the 2nd ballot.

[musette_sf]

41. Sen Sanders is not a Democrat.

[bluewater]

42. And that has what to do with 538's projections?

The fact remains, Sanders is running in the 2020 Democratic Primary and Democratic voters are voting for him.

538's projections are about which candidate will be our 2020 Democratic nominee.

[musette_sf]

43. It has plenty to do with the Democratic Party

and with Democratic Underground. I am here to support Democrats.

PS, 538 also projected Sec'y Clinton to win the general in 2016. So pardon me if I don't give a rat's patoot about the prognostications of 538.

[PufPuf23]

54. Only one of those Sanders quotes is under 30 years old.

Better to look at Sanders voting record in Congress and his allies in Congress.

[musette_sf]

56. I'm looking at the fact

that Sen Sanders is not and never has been a Democrat.

And I think it is unseemly that he has the nerve to run AGAIN, as a non-Democrat, under the party aegis. 2016 was more than enough.

[PufPuf23]

57. Deal with the fact that Sanders is likely to be the Democratic candidate in the

general election for POTUS.

I favor Warren but one does not always get what they want.

One could easily argue that Sanders has a longer and more consistent history in supporting Democratic policy than many more conservative Democratic pols. Sanders is the candidate most in concert with FDR (Warren is a close 2nd).

[musette_sf]

59. "Deal with the fact"?

For the fourth time today in this group, I need to say that I'm beginning to feel like supporters of Democrats are being bullied and threatened by supporters of non-Democrats.

And for the fourth time today in this group, I need to say that I'm not aware that Sen Sanders has won the nomination.

As for the, ahem, "more consistent history", so WHY has Sen Sanders never declared for the Democratic Party?

[PufPuf23]

60. I agree with you that there is a long term bullying problem at DU.

Sanders has the wind at his back today regards the primary season, Sanders is the most likely Democratic candidate by popular vote for the general election.

What are you going to do in the general election should Sanders be our candidate?

Note I have been a registered Democrat since 1971. The only non-Democratic vote I have ever made was for John Anderson in the 1980 GOP California primary in an attempt to slow Reagan. The only $$$ I have ever given a pol is $1000 to POTUS Obama in 2008. I am pretty much a realist.

What do you plan to do if Sanders goes into the convention with the most popular vote?

If Sanders does end up the Democratic candidate in the general election, will you vote for him?

[musette_sf]

61. I hope our Democratic Party

will nominate a Democrat. That's what makes us Democrats.

I haven't voted Democrat for 48 years, nor been a member of Democratic Underground for 15+ years, to NOT vote for Democrats.

[PufPuf23]

62. You did not answer my questions.

What do you plan to do if Sanders goes into the convention with the most popular vote?

If Sanders does end up the Democratic candidate in the general election, will you vote for him?

[Sympthsical]

79. No one cares

Truly. Democrats are voting for him.

[Fiendish Thingy]

50. David Plouffe himself has said it would take "a generation" for Dems to recover

If they deny Sanders, as the clear delegate leader, the nomination.

Folks better move quickly through the stages of grief (we’re past Denial, firmly in the Anger stage IMO) and prepare to support Sanders in the general, without fantasies of creating a Moderate Grand Bargain at the convention...

[musette_sf]

52. "Folks better move quickly through the stages of grief

and prepare to support Sanders in the general"???

For the third time today in this group, I need to say that I'm beginning to feel like supporters of Democrats are being bullied and threatened by supporters of non-Democrats.

And for the third time today in this group, I need to say that I'm not aware that Sen Sanders has won the nomination.

[Fiendish Thingy]

67. If current trends continue, Sanders' delegate lead will be insurmountable after Super Tuesday

That is what folks need to come to terms with over the next 10 days.

I wish it weren’t so, but I dwell in the reality based community.

[mgcgulfcoast]

18. AGREED

[totodeinhere]

20. If he gets that close they won't dare deny him.

One or more of his opponents would probably release their delegates allowing Bernie to go over the top.

[Sympthsical]

78. Agreed.

If Sanders gets over 40 % and is denied, we’re in deep, deep trouble.

Still disappointed in Warren’s numbers, but we’ll see how Tuesday shakes out.

[msongs]

15. wishful thinking by bernie fans cannot cancel math. if he's not wanted by more than half too bad nt

[bluewater]

17. 538 are "Bernie Fans" now? It's 538's projection.

[Steelrolled]

73. Conventions can be like the game of horseshoes.

Being very close to one half counts.

[underthematrix]

16. Based on this model, it looks like the

nominee will be either BIDEN or BLOOMBERG. Interesting.

[bluewater]

19. 538 disagrees, they have Sanders far and away most likey to win on the 1st ballot

Sanders: 48% chance of being the nominee on the 1st ballot

Biden: 9%

Bloomberg: 4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[underthematrix]

49. You should study up on conventions. There will be consolidation BEFORE

the convention, which means Sanders will unlikely have more delegates than one other candidate.

[bluewater]

51. Time will tell.

And, please, don't shoot the messenger...

This is 538's projection, not mine.

The data guys at 538 do this sort of thing for a living.

[Fresh_Start]

24. liz is going to emerge as the unity candidate

progressive but not a socialist

[bluewater]

25. Honestly, not if Sanders does get 1700+ Delegates going in to the convention.

as 538 is projecting.

I'm a die hard Warren supporter, but I try to stay in touch with reality.

[Fresh_Start]

26. sanders isn't going to get that

people are paying attention to liz now

[Garrett78]

28. If Sanders wins SC, that projection will jump even higher.

I wouldn't be so sure 1700 is out of reach.

[still_one]

34. Steyer has completely messed things up in South Carolina, and I suspect he will do the same along

with Bloomberg on Super Tuesday, and effectively push Sanders as the Democratic nominee

I think having Sanders as the Democratic nominee is going to be a very difficult road for the Democrats in the general election, because whether we like it or not, the Socialist label is going to be applied to him, and by proxy the whole Democratic party, and I believe that is a political liability

[Garrett78]

36. Not all of Steyer's support would go to Biden. Besides, I don't think Steyer's numbers will hold.

[still_one]

38. From what I have heard his ads are playing non-stop in South Carolina. I know here in California

both Bloomberg and Steyer's ads are playing, though from what I have observed Bloomberg's are more frequent

As to where Steyer's votes would go if he wasn't in the race, I think he is definitely hurting Warren most. No question that Bloomberg is hurting Biden the worst, and I think Bloomberg has pretty much finished off Biden, and helped Sanders secure the nomination, unless something changes drastically

[Sympthsical]

80. Bloomberg and Steyer are all I hear in California

I don’t watch much tv, but there’s some in the break rooms at work. I swear every commercial break involves Bloomberg.

[still_one]

81. Pretty much my impression also. We will see if the debates change the dynamics

[nsd]

27. Warren is not a unity candidate.

Witness the last debate: she laid fire on everyone else on stage except for Sanders.

I tend to think of her as Sanders-lite, not a middle ground candidate. If she had run a different campaign from the start, she might now be an acceptable unity candidate, but not now.

[Fresh_Start]

29. I'm looking at what people I'm connected with are saying

there are a lot of completely pissed off voters about the old white men candidates.

[nsd]

30. The Democratic Party is much bigger than that.

People who complain about "old white men" have loud voices on internet forums, but I would submit that they don't represent the party's ordinary voters. (And I say that as someone who is neither old nor white, but is quite ordinary.)

We'll see what happens in SC, but I very much expect that a Democratic electorate -- a real Democratic electorate made up of ordinary voters, many of whom are African-American -- will choose one of two old white men (Biden or Sanders). I have my fingers crossed for Biden.

[jimfields33]

64. A real democratic electorate?

Are you saying that Nevada due to majority Hispanics and a decent amount of African Americans was not an adequate representation of the United States democratic electorate? Come on.... I mean I know that South Carolina has 60 percent but Nevada had a decent representation.

[bluewater]

65. Nevada is a minority-majority state.

[nsd]

69. No, I was contrasting real voters with the friends of the poster who were said to be ...

... fed up with “old white men.” I was suggesting that those friends were unrepresentative of rank-and-file Democratic voters, who are fine with Bernie and Joe. (Probably “unrepresentative” would have been a better word than “real.” ) I was suggesting that people who reduce candidates to caricatures like “old white men” do not speak for most of the party.

In any case, I wasn’t talking about NV — or IA or NH for that matter.

[jimfields33]

70. Thank you. I get it totally.

[in2herbs]

31. If it came down to a 2-person candidate convention and those present candidates that did drop out

pledged their delegates to the candidate that was not BS, the other candidate would beat BS in the delegate count. Or is my math wrong?

[bluewater]

32. That's a bit too vague.

For us to comment on that, you would need to be more specific.

Right now 538 is projecting Sanders with almost a 1000 delegate lead going into the convention!

Sure, if 538 is wrong, if something else happens, if a 2nd candidate is closer...

That's just too many "ifs" to make a reasonable comment on such a hypothetical.

For example, how close are those top two candidates? On what basis does anyone make a projection like that?

But I take your point.

If Biden or Bloomberg were to drop out and drop out soon, that would change 538's projection, I am sure.

Which way though?

Of that, I am not so sure.

[colsohlibgal]

33. This Is Totally About Beating Trump

I will vote for the Democratic Nominee. I like some of them comfortably more than others but they all are infinitely better than the Evil Creep now in Office.

[The Mouth]

40. Love or hate Bernie

No other candidate, not even President Obama, has followers with so much passion and energy.

Maybe no one since the Kennedys. Or maybe Goldwater.

The energy, the hope, the whole attitude, not just amongst young kids but among MANY of the OHs (Original Hippies, my 60-something friends who went through the 60's LOVE Bernie.

It's amazing.

I still think Pete or Liz could do a better job of actually getting things done, and all due props to Joe who has served this country loyally for decades, but Bernie followers have a level of commitment that I've never seen in my 58 years (44 of those passionately following politics). I know 69-year-old ladies who drove 100+ miles to go to his rally the other day!


I hear the whole 'electability' thing, but fuck, if he's the nominee campuses are going to turn into ghost towns while the 'kids' go for it. I like Pete both because I think he's smart as hell, aware of what needs to be done, can build coalitions and my many gay friends will be incredibly joyful if he got elected.

But I'm seeing something with Bernie I've not seen before.

[Garrett78]

46. It really is astounding. And what's changed since 2016 is the diversity of his support.

The exit poll demographic data from Nevada is mind-blowing.

[Blue_true]

44. If Sanders come in with that number of delegates, that would say that his support

is fairly broad. In that case he should be the nominee and all of us will just have to put our backs into helping him in the General.

[book_worm]

45. Well, then why even have any more votes?

The 538 have spoken.

[bluewater]

47. Right. Why even have polls then too?

Maybe, just maybe, because people like to have an estimate of how elections are going to turn out?

Sure, if no one had that curiosity, there would be no projections or polling...

Yet here we are, on a political web forum where people speculate almost constantly about these things, trying to make educated estimates about how these elections will go.

Go figure.

[Bumperstickers]

48. 538 is now up to 1803

As Nevada results continue to come in Sanders keeps moving upwards, mite have all he needs by nights end.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

53. Delegates to the Nevada state convention

That's where they'll pick those going to the national.

[SidDithers]

58. If he doesn't have 1990 delegates at the first ballot of the convention...

then he'll need 2376 delegates on the second ballot, when all those "Democratic Establishment" superdelegates get to add their votes into the mix.

Only with #Berniemath does 1796 delegates win the primary.

Sid

[bluewater]

63. He's damn close to getting those 1991 delegates if this projection is at all accurate.

But in any case, It will be interesting to see what happens.

Personally, I don't see the super delegates not giving the nomination to the person with the 700 to 1000 delegate lead.

But hey, time will tell.

[TexasBushwhacker]

68. I know she's progressive

but I wouldn't assume Warren will throw her support to Sanders. Yes, in terms of ideology they are close, but there's no denying:

He's 78

He just had a heart attack and said he won't release his full medical records

He's being helped by Russia.

Are we really going to have to choose between 2 men that are both being supported by Putin? SHOOT ME NOW!

[counting]

76. i think

sanders will get 1991 delegates before the convention, the other candidates will run out of money, only bloomberg might stay in the race.

[ehrnst]

77. So you think that other candidates should drop out when one candidate wins the pledged

delegates necessary to win the nomination?

[wyldwolf]

83. oops.