Vulnerable House Dems fear a Bernie nomination could end up costing them their seats

[pnwmom]

and costing the Dems a majority in the House.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sanders-success-ramps-concern-among-congressional-democrats-n1136456

WASHINGTON — While congressional Democrats share in their party's overriding goal of defeating President Donald Trump in November, there is growing concern that their efforts to retain a somewhat fragile House majority and hopes of winning control of the Senate could be hampered with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., at the top of the ticket.

Democrats worry that Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, and his policies are too liberal for the broader electorate they need to win in states and districts that Trump won in 2016.

In particular, they are concerned that having Sanders at the top of the ticket could drive away suburban voters who favored Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections in the nation's small number of closely divided districts and put potential Senate seats out of reach in GOP-leaning states.

[JohnBoltonsmustache]

1. It's only February, these stories do more to promote Trump

If these Representatives worked for their constituents instead of their donors, they’d be less venerable. Granted, some are in gerrymandered districts that add to that venerability, but they had two years to prove their worth.

[pnwmom]

5. What do you think these vulnerable Reps in swing or red districts haven't been doing

for their constituents?

Are you aware that Mitch McConnell is blocking virtually all legislation that the D's have passed, with the help of these vulnerable legislators?

[ibegurpard]

2. A lot of them also ran against Nancy Pelosi

It happens and she understood and condoned it.

[Gothmog]

3. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker come 2021

Kevin McCarthy also wants sanders to be the nominee

Link to tweet

THE TUMULTUOUS POLITICAL CLIMATE has given fresh hope to REPUBLICANS, who were privately skeptical of TRUMP’S prediction that House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY will be the next speaker come 2021. Internal polling commissioned by the NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE showed that voters in districts targeted by both parties are skeptical of SANDERS -- his approval rating is 42%, and disapproval stands at 53% -- which they believe will help boost their candidates for the House. In these districts, voters prefer TRUMP, 48% to 43%. If SANDERS is atop the ticket, Republicans believe, they can credibly label every Democrat a socialist without fear of overreach.

[Qutzupalotl]

4. David Frum goes district by district and agrees:

Link to tweet

Meanwhile, it’s very hard to identify congressional districts where the hypothetical return of Sanders-to-Trump voters to the Democratic column would swing the district—and it’s easy to identify many where discomfort with Sanders could swing the district back to the Republican column.

In 2018, Democrat Lizzie Fletcher won Texas’s Seventh, a wealthy district in and around Houston. The district had been held continuously by Republicans since 1966, when it was won by George H. W. Bush. In 2016, Republican John Culberson got almost 144,000 votes; Democrat James Cargas, 112,000. In 2018, the Democratic vote improved to 128,000; the Republican vote fell to 116,000. Yet the district remains Republican +7 according to “The Cook Political Report.” What happens to Lizzie Fletcher if Bernie Sanders wins the nomination on a message of higher taxes, no private health insurance, and admiration for Fidel Castro? Do you think a Republican House member cannot recover to 144,000 running against that?

.....

But in an important way, Sanders represents an even greater danger to Democrats than McGovern did. McGovern ran in an age of ticket-splitting. In that same election where McGovern did so disastrously, Democrats lost only 12 seats in the House. They actually gained two in the Senate and also won a governorship.

That pattern will not repeat itself in 2020. If Sanders loses badly as moderate voters swing away from Democrats, he will take with him a big clutch of House Democrats and Democratic Senate hopefuls. It will be a loss up and down the ticket, a loss that could not only reelect Trump, but also enable him, by preserving his elected bodyguard in the Senate and restoring his majority in the House. The question to weigh before Super Tuesday is thus not only Sanders versus Biden or Sanders versus Bloomberg. It is whether you prefer Speaker Pelosi or Speaker McCarthy, and Chairman Schiff or Chairman Nunes. The hopes of congressional Democrats hang in the balance in the fateful week ahead.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/state-democratic-race/607024/