Details on tomorrow's South Carolina Primary

[brooklynite]

Polls open at 7 AM Eastern; close at 7 PM

Open Primary - all voters can participate

No on-site early voting. 67,000 absentee ballots were distributed; 61,000 have been returned.

54 delegates will be awarded based on the outcome of the Primary: 19 based on the Statewide vote total, 5 awarded to each of the 7 Congressional Districts. Delegates are awarded proportionally to any candidates achieving 15% or more of the vote. Delegates will be elected at a May Party Convention.

Results will be posted at: https://www.scvotes.org/2020-democratic-presidential-preference-primary-results

[AGeddy]

1. What is the expected turnout? What was it in 2016 and 2008?

Anybody know?

[k2qb3]

2. About 375K in '16 and 550K in '08.

I suspect Joe will win the popular vote but Bernie will get more delegates.

[AGeddy]

4. According to the article, it would almost be impossible to win the popular vote in SC and get less

19 delegates go to the statewide winner

5 delegates go to the winner in each congressional district


That means the statewide winner has an absolute MINIMUM of 24 delegates of the 54. And that's if they only win one district and lose the other six. That's almost an impossibility.

[k2qb3]

6. It's proportional for over 15%

Because of the concentration of Biden support in Clyburns district the delegate count is almost certainly going to be closer than the popular vote.

Sanders will probably only get shut out of one district.

Biden could easily get shut out of two or three.

[AGeddy]

7. ok, assume your scenario

Biden:

19 for statewide
5 for Clyburn's district
2 for three districts he doesn't get shut out of
0 for three districts he does get shut out of

That's still 30 out of 54.

And that's his floor.


The numbers in SC look to more more likely that Biden gets to at least 15% in every district. A conservative estimate right now would be 36 for Biden, 15 for Bernie, 3 for "other" (likely Steyer).

[k2qb3]

8. No, you're not understanding how this works. It's proportional.

Say Biden gets 37% and Sanders gets 24% statewide and no other candidates get above 15% anywhere. ( I think Steyer might in a district or two, we'll see.)

Biden gets 12 statewide delegates and Sanders gets 7.

Biden gets 5 delegates from Clyburn's district if Sanders doesn't get 15%

Sanders gets 5 delegates from any districts where Biden doesn't get 15%, 10 or 15 maybe.

The other districts most likely split the delegates 2/3 one way or the other.

It's more likely Biden will get more delegates than less, it depends on how big the margin is and how big the youth vote is in places like Greenville, but it's very difficult for him to get more than 30 delegates in SC.

[AGeddy]

9. Ok, yes.

I was looking at polls showing Bernie around 15% statewide, but yes, if he is over that then the 19 for statewide will be split.

I also think Biden gets at least 15% in every district.

[k2qb3]

10. That's possible, sure.

I don't think the polling is reliable, a lot of bad methodology on both sides.

Plus no R primary.

If Biden really surges it could split like 34 for biden and 20 for Sanders.

I think the likely outcome is more like 30/24, and it could even invert due to a bigger than usual independent vote and mayhem crossovers, I guess we'll find out soon.

[AGeddy]

11. Care to rethink your prediction?

[Sloumeau]

3. Results Below:

For 2016:

[link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#South_Carolina|]

Candidate.................................Count.......Percentage............Pledged.............Unpledged....Total

Hillary Clinton............................272,379........73.44%............39....................5.................44
Bernie Sanders............................96,498........26.02%............14....................0.................14
Willie Wilson.................................1,314..........0.35%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)..............713..........0.19%
Uncommitted.........................................................................0....................1...................1
Total votes................................370,904...........100%..............53..................6.................59

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

For 2018:

In 2018, residents of South Carolina voted in Midterms and had the Governor's race. Total votes for Governer were 1,705,524 total votes, including 784,182 votes from Democrats.

[link:https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/south-carolina/|]

[AGeddy]

5. So if Joe beats Bernie by 60,000 votes, which is possible, Joe takes over the pop vote lead overall

That will be a tough talking point for the Bernie supporters for the 72 hours that follow.