Democrats could face first brokered convention?

[left-of-center2012]

Professor who predicted last 9 elections says Democrats could face first brokered convention in nearly 70 years.

“I think the most likely outcomes are [Bernie] Sanders wins or nobody wins, and for the first time in over 50 years we actually have a convention nominating the candidate,” Allan Lichtman, a political science professor at American University who has predicted elections dating back to 1984, told The Independent.

Mr Lichtman noted that his prediction model doesn’t make forecasts for primaries, but that there are plenty of signs that a brokered convention could happen: “And that would be very interesting, who knows what might come out of that.”

A contested convention would mean that no candidate had reached that half-way threshold, and that multiple rounds of voting would take place to determine the winner. After each round of voting, a certain portion of delegates are freed up to vote for whomever they want. Campaigns at that point try to convince free delegates to come over to support their candidate.

According to prediction models by FiveThirtyEight, 2020 is shaping up to be such a year. That website gives Mr Sanders the best chance at winning more than half of the pledged delegates by the end of the primary season — but just a 32 per cent chance of doing so. The chance that nobody receives that majority of delegates is pegged at 51 per cent, and the only other candidate with a significant chance of doing so being Mr Biden, at 15 per cent.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/super-tuesday-professor-predicted-last-160508584.html

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Once the field is narrowed to 2

even if only for all practical purposes, the contrast between Biden and Sanders will accelerate. I'm thinking Bernie will underperform and stall after Super Tuesday, but it will be a roll of the dice to see if Biden can grab a majority of delegates.

[TTUBatfan2008]

5. Agreed...

I think we are about to see pretty strong consolidation in favor of Biden.

[showblue22]

2. Bernie has been itching for a contested convention for a long time.

Maybe he will finally get one.

[empedocles]

4. Contested convention seems to be behind the JB surge

[ . . . and deeper exposure to more voters of BS record].

[Sneederbunk]

3. Old enough to remember they say this almost every four years.

[TwilightZone]

6. SurveyUSA did a ranked-choice poll. Sanders and Biden were within the MOE of each other.

Could be a preview of a contested convention. If so, fur is going to fly.

It's early, though.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287598623