Harris Snubs Iowa and New Hampshire - WSJ op-ed

[question everything]

By David Avella

Iowa and New Hampshire voters are reportedly vexed with California Sen. Kamala Harris, who hasn’t spent much time in their states since announcing her presidential candidacy. As the primaries approach, you’ll be likelier to find her at California’s In-N-Out Burger or Texas’ Magnolia Café than at Iowa’s Pizza Ranch or New Hampshire’s Red Arrow Diner.

It appears Ms. Harris and her team have paid close attention to delegate rules and the changes to the primary calendar. Compared with 2016, the number of delegates awarded in Super Tuesday primaries—which will be held March 3 next year—has nearly doubled, to 37% in 2020 from 21% in 2016. In large part that’s because the Golden State, which has traditionally held its primary in June, has joined the Lone Star State in holding its vote on Super Tuesday.

California and Texas, the two most populous states, account for 17% of total available delegates, but they’re awarded according to different rules. California will have 416 delegates up for grabs, more than half of which are apportioned by congressional district, of which the state has 53. Texas has 228 delegates, 149 of which are allocated among the 31 state Senate districts.

In addition, many Californians vote early. The state will send mail-in ballots Feb. 3, the same day as the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. Early voting gives Ms. Harris an added home-state advantage because of her experience as a candidate with “vote harvesting”—in which campaign workers collect ballots before Election Day and deliver them to election authorities. In 2018 several California Republicans were ahead on election night, only to see harvested votes wipe out their leads in the ensuing days. Vote harvesting is illegal in many states—including in North Carolina, where it led to a dispute that ended with the state election board overturning a House result.

(snip)

Here is a scenario to consider: While Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders duke it out in Iowa, Ms. Harris visits those states only to attend debates, while focusing on winning California and funneling Texas votes away from favorite sons Beto O’Rourke and Julián Castro. Pundits and reporters holed up at hotel bars across Iowa shout that Ms. Harris is ignoring the Hawkeye State. Likewise in New Hampshire, which holds its primary Feb. 11. Three weeks later, Ms. Harris scores a big victory in California and finishes strong in Texas. That rockets her from also-ran to top of the pack and wins her massive favorable press coverage.


More..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/harris-snubs-iowa-and-new-hampshire-11554661604 (paid subscription)

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I have no idea how accurate these calculations are. Really here just the messenger, but I would imagine that they will become relevant in less then 12 months..

[namahage]

1. So actually studying the rules and planning a strategy around them.

Like Obama did in 2008.

Leaving aside, of course, the totally problematic nature of the op-ed's title and its author, GOPAC chairman David Avella.

But thanks for bringing that message here. Really.

[question everything]

2. And if she will start a new "tradition" of not letting IA and NH make the first cut

more power to her.

[still_one]

10. I agree. Also the fact that Iowa is a caucus state, and NOT a primary one is more reason in my view

that it shouldn't go first in the primaries because of the discriminatory nature of the caucus, which discriminates against those who are less mobile, and also it is too easy in the caucus process to allow harassment in persuading voters how to vote.

[msongs]

3. loads of time left to visit iowa and NH. loads and loads of time nt

[Takket]

4. geez she better get her act together......

only like, another year to visit there!

[still_one]

11. LOL

[DURHAM D]

5. Drivel from the NY political chattering class.

[BlueStater]

6. Why are they always the first two states that get to vote anyway?

Why do they get the first say over New York, California, Florida, and Texas every time? Fuck that.

I'm a Floridian and by the time I get to vote it usually doesn't matter anymore. It's already done and decided who the nominee will be. Pisses me the hell off.

[question everything]

7. They certainly do not represnet the country

not demographically, economically, immigration effect..

Only two candidates won both the Iowa caucus and the White House: Bush in 2000 and Obama in 2008. (Oh, Carter, in 1976, came second after "undecided.&quot

[rogue emissary]

8. Good. I've hated those two states being first for over a decade.

I only wish more candidates would follow her lead. We're fifty states plus territories.

If you think I'm being petty or short side. ask yourself how many candidates have gone to Puerto Rico?

[RandySF]

9. FFS it's only April.

[namahage]

13. But not too early to pin a "snub" on one of the Democratic frontrunners

as well as "vote harvesting"--a RW talking point.

But we mustn't blame the OP--they're just "the messenger."

[NBachers]

14. Now that you mention it . . .

[question everything]

16. If you are not going to know what the other side says

and be ready to respond, then you should not run any campaign.

It has been suggested that Harris had the luxury of campaigning only in California where Democrats win.

Perhaps she, and her supporters, are not ready for prime time.

[namahage]

20. So take it up with the management of the site.

Don't peddle right-wing talking points, smears, or sources

Do not post right-wing talking points or smears. Do not post content sourced from right-wing publications, authors, or pundits. Exceptions are permitted if you provide a clear reason for doing so that is consistent with the values of this website.

Why we have this rule: News media and the Internet are already awash with conservative propagandists attacking our candidates and our values -- we're not interested in providing them with another outlet. We understand that many of our members might hold some conservative viewpoints on isolated issues, but nobody here should be parroting hateful garbage from the RNC, the NRA, or the Family Research Council. Forum members should expect that the only time they'll have to read a right-wing smear or an article from Breitbart is when someone is pointing and laughing at it.

[question everything]

43. Changed your mind, a case of identity theft?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128760682#post1

namahage (936 posts)

1. So actually studying the rules and planning a strategy around them.


Like Obama did in 2008.

Leaving aside, of course, the totally problematic nature of the op-ed's title and its author, GOPAC chairman David Avella.

But thanks for bringing that message here. Really.

[namahage]

47. Of course I changed my mind.

That’s the ONLY explanation for me thanking you for posting the chairman of GOPAC’s op-Ed riddled with RW talking points.

Thanks for reminding me that some can’t—or pretend not to—recognize obvious without the appropriate smiley.

No, really.

[LanternWaste]

25. Perhaps you could provide objective evidence supporting that (not a) smear?

"Perhaps she, and her supporters, are not ready for prime time"

Perhaps you could provide objective evidence supporting that (not a) smear, rather than relay on the always popular after-this-therefor-because-of-this fallacy...

[Kaleva]

45. By "other side", do you mean the other Dem candidates?

I cannot imagine the Trump campaign wasting any effort attacking Harris on this.

[question everything]

46. As a start and then, of course, other parites including the "independents"

Wonder whether, in 2016, anyone was paying attention to Jill Stein who cost us Michigan.

[Indykatie]

12. Harris is Smart to Skip Iowa and New Hampshire

This is just smart politics. With the changes in the primary calendar I hope to see some other candidates skip the Iowa caucus and focus on the early states that actually resemble the demographics of the Democratic party.

[Hortensis]

15. Why post "SNUB" smear headline from a right-wing op-ed? Tomorrow

Harris will be campaigning in Iowa on her third visit. Among other things no doubt, she's going to host a town hall at the University of Iowa. She will talk about her plan to substantially increase teacher incomes.

Questions, your author, David Avella, is a slimy Republican operative. That trashy propaganda headline would never have passed editorial review for the news content of the WSJ, while its opinion sections are famously highly dishonest and even extreme. In fact, his group, GOPAC, specializes in training Republican politicians in how to lie and smear Democrats at every opportunity. Check your headline for just one example.

[question everything]

17. "Snub" - well, this is the WSJ, after all but, as I posted, above

if you do not intend to study what your rivals are saying and doing, if you are not ready to response, then you do not belong in any national campaign. This is not cozy California where Democrats only have to face other Democrats.

[Hortensis]

32. Copying their smears in headlines is VERY different

from studying. I think this is worthwhile for reading to understand that a smear is a smear even when masquerading as discussion by someone who "likes" Biden.

Again, that title. We're not that clueless, surely? We should be able to recognize the smear (s)words GOPAC teaches Republicans to use and NOT repeat them ourselves.

[BlueFlorida]

18. I like this

IA and NH, two tiny states with 98% white population get too much power. Time to strip them of that power.

[Stuart G]

19. Sarcasm: Is this election next week?..Next month? Two months?...OH NO.!!!!

sarcasm: Primary elections they are talking about in this article are on March 3 of next year.

More than 10 full months away. An article discussing an election next year on March 3 is a bit ridiculous, as well as what the candidates do in April 10 months away...?? What Harris does in relation to going to a state for an election 10 full months away is absurd.
...I guess the Wall Street Journal is running out of ideas to write about...

[Politicub]

21. I trust Harris' strategic approach

And I want to win. She is strategically using her time for the big voting blocs.

It's long past time Iowa and New Hampshire getting so much attention over the other states.

[Skidmore]

33. +1 nt

[namahage]

23. Which is why she's making a THIRD visit to Iowa.

(h/t Hortensis above).

But good to see that RW sources, written by RW authors, are not only freely posted but believed. This does indeed indicate what we're up against here.

[JuJuYoshida]

24. wait your turn, she'll get to them

[Skidmore]

26. She's been here several times,

starting in January. WSJ trying to make trouble.

[PupCamo]

27. I'm more disturbed by the fact she eats and In and Out burgers

food sucks

[namahage]

31. That's interesting.

Is it something verifiable, or just some imagery cooked up by an author who has no interest in seeing Democrats succeed?

[Caliman73]

35. I grew up near Baldwin Park, where In-N-Out started.

It really a matter of opinion. In-N-Out has historically treated their employees very well and has engaged in pretty high quality standards for their franchising and operations.

I am surprised that she eats there as well because until a several years ago, it was primarily a Southern California thing and Harris has mainly been in Oakland and the City.

[PupCamo]

37. I used to live in Alameda-East Bay

and there was one close to me I think; an ex of mine liked their food

[Caliman73]

40. Like I said, a matter of preference.

To me they are pretty good, but I could never understand how people thought they were the best thing ever, or White Castle, or Fatburger, etc... All tasted and all decent burgers but it tends to come down to nostalgia and brand loyalty. I particularly liked the burgers at Bob's Big Boy, but likely because it reminds me of going to the mall with my mother and the fun I had there as a child.

[JI7]

38. in n out is very popular , especially in California

[Caliman73]

41. Until several years ago, they were only in California and mostly in Southern California

They have (had) a policy that they would NEVER freeze their beef, so that meant that they would only open branches within the acceptable distance where they could ship the beef they used in refrigerator trucks, not to be frozen. I am not sure if they still do that. Like I said up thread, they are decent burgers. I moved from the San Gabriel Valley where In-N-Out was born, to Santa Cruz County. There are no In-N-Outs locally. The closest is in Gilroy but every time I go there or to San Jose, I see long lines of cars there and I can't see myself sitting in that line. Perhaps because it was so easy to access In-N-Out growing up that I didn't see it as anything special. Good, but not worth sitting in line for to me.

[MineralMan]

28. I think Iowa and New Hampshire are going to be far less important

in 2020. The shift of major states to March 3, along with smaller ones like Minnesota, are going to make campaigning in those larger, delegate-rich states far more important than in two of our smaller states.

Kamala Harris is making a smart move. I expect others to follow.

[CentralMass]

29. I have to say that I've never been slighted about the number of times that a candidate

visits my state.

[Caliman73]

42. True.

My thinking is that our Reps and Senators are much more important in how they will interact in Congress rather than how many times the President comes to the state. I live however, in California and we like to do our own thing here. Harris is also from California so we know where she lives and what she's done here.

[NastyRiffraff]

30. IA and NH are desperate to hold onto their historic privilege

There is no objective reason why those 2 states should be first, and plenty of reasons that they shouldn't be. They're about as non-representative of the country as a whole as you can get. Yet they whine like bratty children when candidates don't kiss their rings. Good for Kamala. It looks like she has a good strategy. We shall see.

Personally I'd be happy to see those two, particularly the caucus loving Iowa, bumped from their positions. Go ahead and flame!

[Caliman73]

34. You do realize you are posting a rightwing Op-ed piece yes?

Look up who David Avella is and remember that we do not post right wing stuff on DU.

[namahage]

36. But how else will we be able to study what the RW will say

and respond accordingly?

You know, besides going to just about ANY OTHER media site.

[Caliman73]

39. I actually have no problem with people posting information from RW sites...

When it is done in the context of critiquing it and discussing exact what you stated... how right wingers are seeing an issue and what responses we can have to counter.

It seems like someone who does not particularly support Senator Harris posted this, OR perhaps they were simply unaware that they were posting a right winger's analysis. Usually there is information about the author and in this day and age we need to be particularly careful about the bias of the author, especially in an Op-ed, and especially especially in a right leaning Rupert Murdoch owned paper like the Wall Street Journal.

[WeekiWater]

44. Isn't she in Iowa right now? NT

[George II]

48. "As the primaries approach"? The Iowa Caucus is NINE months away, New Hampshire after that!

This is just the Wall Street Journal trying to stir the pot.