Nerd here: The current state of the primaries reminds me of...... Multiplayer Magic The Gathering.

[redgreenandblue]

For those who don't know it: Magic The Gathering is a card game where two or more players who are "wizards" fight against each other, each with a deck of cards which is their "spellbook". You get to summon creatures, hurl fireballs etc.

The game can be played as a duel, or with many people at once, in case of which everybody plays against everybody. And these multiplayer games have an interesting dynamic to them: The winner is usually the person who holds on to the "second most powerful" slot until the very end.

The way these games play out is that one player usually emerges as the most obvious powerhouse at the table, and that person rarely wins the game. Being perceived as the most obvious threat, what typically happens is that the other players work together to tear that person down. It is not that they have a choice. It is just the natural consequence of everyone working in favor of their own interest.

So, the strategy to win is to become powerful, but not so powerful that you draw the fire of the crowd. Second place is the sweet spot. You are stronger than all but one player, and that player is taking all the fire.

It takes a bit of skill to slide back a slot when number one goes down in flames and let someone else become the new number one. Until the very end of the game that is, when there are only three players left. Then number two can burst out something they have been holding back and take down the other two players at once.

In short: Take note of who is second placed. That person is the most likely winner. Right now Biden is number one, and he is getting trashed.

[jberryhill]

1. Bicycle racing works on a similar principle

Because of aerodynamics, it's not possible to win a race by leading it from the start to finish. Particularly in a multi-day stage race, one of the objectives is to force the leader's team to be responsible for chasing down breakaways and attacks at the front of race to wear out the leader by the time the finish line rolls around.

[ExciteBike66]

2. The biggest a**hole always plays blue...

You want to cast that spell? COUNTER!
You like that card? DISCARD IT!