Dare we make a prediction?

[kentuck]

Nobody knows what is going to happen?

There is no air of invincibility.

The race between Bernie and Joe is taking up a lot of oxygen. Bloomberg is the wildcard.

There is another person in the race - Elizabeth Warren. In the end, it is all about delegates.

Elizabeth is no dummy.

She knows that if she takes a good chunk of the delegates today, in California and Colorado, and maybe reach the viability stage of 15% in two or three other places?

If that were to happen, Elizabeth would have a number of delegates that could help either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders. Do they try to make a deal with her? Her votes will be very valuable.

It could turn into a very interesting Democratic Convention.

[deurbano]

1. I'm voting for Warren today in SF, and my daughter (in NYC this week for a meeting in support of

domestic workers) is a Warren texting leader, so she will be participating in the GOTV online from a Brooklyn hotel. She said the Warren campaign rewards them for their efforts with videos of Bailey!

I'm hoping for Warren as the compromise candidate at a brokered convention, or as VP for Biden. Harris was my original choice for prez, and I think she'd make a great VP, too, but Warren might be able to get the support of more Sanders supporters. (Not the Bern-It-Downers... with their stupid snake emojis...but those operating in good faith.) I'm not thrilled to be down to two white men pushing 80 (especially when one had a heart attack DURING this campaign, and won't provide the more detailed medical records he promised)... but I could strongly support a Biden administration, since that doesn't require me to be that wild about the actual candidate. We HAVE to get back the executive, with qualified, competent people heading executive agencies (which Biden certainly has the experience, history and contacts to achieve) and we HAVE to take back the Senate, a goal I believe would be undermined if Sanders was our nominee. I want to reset to NORMAL (and then move forward to where we thought we'd be by now after the 2016 election). Even though I may be closer to Sanders ideologically, that doesn't mean much if we don't have the congressional votes, and just repeating popular slogans won't change anything. More than that, though, is that his campaign this time (like last time) has toxic elements, and I'm more than fed up with this toxicity, both on the right and the so-called left. (But my first choice is still the brilliant, innovative, tireless, compassionate Warren!)

My high school daughter will be a poll worker from 6 am to 9 pm! (She was exhausted after her first time as a poll worker last November.)

Happy Super Tuesday!!

[Amishman]

3. The tie breaker will be an old white guy dunking contest

A basketball hoop will be set at regulation height, each candidate will attempt to dunk. It will be lowered in two inch increments until one of them can dunk.

It might take a while, but will be comedy gold.

[zackymilly]

7. I hope Bernie's heart is in it. n/t

[Happy Hoosier]

4. Mine:

Bernie comes out ahead today, but not by a lot.

Bloomberg fades.

Liz not really a factor except in MA. MAYBE a couple other spots.


But this one is really hard to call.

[whopis01]

5. I don't think Warren is going to make third place today. n/t

[kentuck]

6. So you think Bloomberg's money will get him third place?

He has spent a ton of money, although he has not been in one primary.

[Celerity]

8. latest 538 delegate tracker, just updated within the hour, shows, at end of all states, Bloomberg

outpaces Warren 2 to 1 overall.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[kentuck]

9. That's scary.

Because he will take a lot of votes away from Biden.

[Celerity]

10. yes, with no Bloomberg, Biden would win on a first ballot, and with no Klobuchar, Bernie

would have got his ass truly handed to him in both IA and NH by Pete, so Bernie's momentum would have been greatly blunted already. I am NOT saying that even if that happened, Pete would still be in the race. Odds are very high he still would have dropped out after SC. It is just that Klobuchar literally had zero pathways to anything, never had them at any point in the race once the field shrunk to around 10 or 15, and she popped up as a flavour of the week at a horrid time in terms of Bernie blocking in the first 2 states.

[whopis01]

12. I do think that is going to happen.

He has spent so much money in these upcoming states.

I think that Sanders is going to get the big portion of the very progressive crowd.

I think that Bloomberg is going to get the big portion of the "we need someone radical to fight Trump" crowd.

I think Biden is going to get most of the rest.


Just my opinion - and what I think the outcomes are going to be aren't necessarily reflective of which candidates I like the best - just what I think the outcomes are going to be. I have recently switched from Buttigieg once he dropped out. I like Warren a lot. I just don't think she is going to make it at this point. I still don't get to vote for a while, so we shall see.

[AGeddy]

11. Liz wants to be the kingmaker at a brokered convention. And I don't blame her.

She can get serious concessions from Biden or Sanders to help put them over the top.

[Celerity]

13. The maths do not work at her level of projected delegates

The bar goes up from 1991 to 2375 needed to win. Even if Bernie comes in with 1600 delegates, he will only get 150 to 200 MAX of the 771 SD's (probably far less)

That leaves a massive gap of around 600 or more he still needs to win, which is far beyond what her delegate total will be (and all of her delegates will NOT go to Bernie anyway)

Biden will be at 1600 to 1700 at least (if he was a great ST he has shot at 1991 IF Bloomberg does poorlyband drops out quickly) and will get at least 500 SDs or so. Bloomberg's pledged will partially (almost all) go to him, and seeing as Biden only needs less than 200, and already will get most of Petes and Amy's small number, he will easily clear the bar without Warren's aid.

Also, if she advised her delegates to vote for Sanders in a Charge of The Light Brigade pointless blaze of glory, she is destroying any further ambitions she might have in the Party.

So no kingmaker role is the probable outcome I am afraid.