Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumLatest 538 Projection (ST morning)
Yeesh...
[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo|
Brokered: 61%
Biden: 31% (1740)
Sanders: 8% (1362)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,360 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
zackymilly
(2,375 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
4139
(1,893 posts)Lot of early voting for Super Tuesday
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Biden likely will win Texas, maybe by a good margin and Biden seems to be winning smaller states than Cali and Texas, but which have good sized populations.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Way...WAY too sensitive to data variability.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Happy Hoosier
(7,387 posts)SC really DID change everything in this race, and it was only 4 days ago!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)I think the model was overestimating Bernie for the last few weeks.
Its uncertainty was too low given the lack of any data.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Happy Hoosier
(7,387 posts)I don't mean that in a snarky way. Models like this include a lot of judgement, of course. It's interesting to see what different kinds of models show.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Too little payoff given that my job is to build statistical models of things.
Maybe if I get some serious free time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dansolo
(5,376 posts)The predictions we're based on polling, except every poll that screamed Bernie up by N% ignored the large chunk of undecideds. Those people are now breaking towards Biden, which changes the calculations immensely.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,668 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Yes I know Nate professionally. Or did, at one point. Its been a few years.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Even tiny amounts of information can change probabilities drastically.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
John Fante
(3,479 posts)Fuck you, James Comey!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)That means the model heretofore has been almost all error bars. Reporting out a leader in an information starved model was a little irresponsible on the part of 538.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
karynnj
(59,504 posts)to follow that.
What seems to have happened this year is that - other than Sanders supporters - people have been open to several candidates. With speeches, debates and elections, there have been BIG shifts in national polling. However, until this week, consider how stable almost all of the candidates have been DU's preferences, which allow us to select undecided if we really are not completely behind any one candidate, have been.
The models use the more variable polls where people are somewhat pushed to select a candidate. What that means is for several candidates - maybe all but Bernie's - a portion of the support is very soft. That causes the swings. The only way to get rid of this variability is to do the polls - which they do not do or control - making it clear that undecided is a valid choice.
It is interesting that this week, we have seen the biggest shift (I think) in the DU polls. 15 to 22 is a huge shift - especially as Sanders and Warren remain fixed or not fixed.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
njhoneybadger
(3,910 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hav
(5,969 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
njhoneybadger
(3,910 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,668 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,668 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)After tonight I suspect Biden over 50%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,668 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden