Biden's Delegate Lead Is Small, but Could Be Hard to Overcome

[RandySF]

But an Upshot analysis suggests that the close delegate race might not last for long. If the race doesn’t take a decisive turn in favor of Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden is likely to build an insurmountable delegate lead over the next few weeks.

Mr. Biden largely swept the Eastern half of the country, where most of the delegates awarded after Super Tuesday are at stake. And in many states, Mr. Sanders was able to forestall greater defeats only because of the large number of early voters who cast their ballots before the South Carolina race, when the party’s moderate voters were still divided. He will no longer have that advantage.

Mr. Biden got an additional lift on Wednesday as his leading moderate rival, Mike Bloomberg, dropped out of the race. His departure could free additional moderate voters to join Mr. Biden, and it seems Mr. Bloomberg will be willing to use his considerable wealth to support him. Even in the unlikely event that his voters don’t break toward Mr. Biden, Mr. Bloomberg’s absence would allow Mr. Biden to claim even larger delegate majorities in the remaining Southern states. In Florida, for example, Mr. Bloomberg might have otherwise cleared the 15 percent threshold for earning delegates, at Mr. Biden’s expense.

Mr. Biden swept the South with expected, overwhelming support among African-American voters, who backed him by a margin of 56 percent to 19 percent across the Super Tuesday states, according to exit polls. His success among white voters was less expected and allowed him to extend his strength well beyond the South.



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/upshot/biden-sanders-delegate-count-analysis.html