Will "non Southern" Black voters give greater support to Sanders than have Southern Blacks?

[Tom Rinaldo]

Bernie's chances to rebound from Biden's strong showing on Super Tuesday depend to some extent on a "yes" answer to that question. Bernie doesn't necessarily have to outright win the total Black vote, but he certainly can't afford to keep losing it by 40% and have any chance of winning. It has already been widely reported that Sanders had more Latino support on Super Tuesday than did Biden. Not as widely reported was the fact that Sanders also led among Asian American voters:

"According to an NBC News analysis of exit poll data across Super Tuesday States, Sanders is actually leading with Asian American voters across the landscape. According to their tally, Sanders gets 39% of their votes, and 21% of Asian American voters back Biden."

It has been easy to find exit poll data about how poorly Sanders performed with African American voters in the South, with plenty of news stories highlighting that fact. Outside of the South however it is difficult to find any reporting on how Sanders did with Black voters. For example I can find no reporting on how well Bernie Sanders did with African American voters in California (if anyone knows where to find that data I would love a link to it). I did find this little tidbit of information, somewhat buried in a New York Times story that emphasizes the failure of an "increased youth vote" for Sanders on Tuesday, intriguing however:

" Mr. Sanders did do unusually well among black voters, who were a point of struggle for him in other states: He won 43 percent of them. But he only won 27 percent of white voters, who account for most of the Minnesota electorate." As an aside, since when has the New York Times starting referring to the sitting Senator from Vermont as "Mr. Sanders"?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/politics/bernie-sanders-young-voter-turnout.html

[apcalc]

1. Not a chance.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. I pointed to some polling data that suggests yes there is a chance

Do you have exit polls outside of the South that support your assertion?

[brush]

4. Try Nevada. Biden won the black vote there, and Sanders stupidly...

didn't go to Selma where every other candidate was. He drops the ball ever time with black voters, and we notice.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Nevada was before Biden's late surge, but the African American voter breakdown was much closer there

"Although Biden held the lead with black voters at 36%, Sanders was in a close second at 27%, according to entrance polls."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/22/nevada-caucus-bernie-sanders-scores-huge-victory-and-other-takeaways/4830409002/

[brush]

8. And you think somehow it's going to get better after Biden's huge wins?

No, that won't happen, and all of us have roots/relatives in the South. We think the same. He's just not popular with black voters.

And what about Selma?

[BeyondGeography]

9. Not going to Selma was classic Bernie

“Sorry, I got delegates to win for ME that day.” He can be charming and gracious when he needs to be, but his default setting is self-absorbed tone deafness.

[BlueIdaho]

22. A real blunder...

Not understanding the importance of that even speaks volumes.

[TwilightZone]

10. 27% isn't close to 36%.

In any election contest, 36/27 would be a blowout. A 9% difference is only close for narrative purposes.

If he's still losing the AA vote by 9% in a state he otherwise won easily, he's unlikely to do much better elsewhere, especially now that Biden has momentum.

[True Blue American]

3. No, most

Northern blacks migrated from the South to work.

[yardwork]

5. The NYT refers to Hillary as Mrs. Clinton.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. Thanks for pointing that out. I think it is poor form in both cases n/t

[yardwork]

12. It's been their standard for decades. It's outdated.

[TexasTowelie]

11. I'm almost certain that Sanders did much better with black voters

in Vermont.

[brush]

14. All 15 of them.

[True Blue American]

30. All 5?:)

[Todd79]

13. Doubt it

First time poster, long time lurker.

No- look at the support among the members of the Congressional Black Caucus for one thing. They hold a lot of influence in their communities. Second- the biggest states left on the map are what- Georgia, Florida, New York, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan (off top of my head)?

There won’t be a debate before Michigan, and let’s say Bernie makes a Biden-esque comeback and wins. The win would be offset because on the same day you have Mississippi (where Biden will absolutely crush Sanders) and Missouri.

Now Bernie won Missouri last time, but by that point it was clear that Hillary was the nominee and her supporters weren’t as determined to show up and it had a smaller black turnout. Last I heard Biden had a substantial lead in that state already and it will only grow bigger.

After that you have Florida and Ohio. There will be a debate by that point and it’s possible that Bernie could leave with some momentum, but it won’t matter because Florida is the one and only state where he will get crushed by not only the southern black community, but the Latin American community as well. On top of that, Democrats in Florida have a high population of wealthy retirees (remember Palm Beach)? You think they are fond of the constant attacks on millionaires and billionaires? Not too mention that Bloomberg’s endorsement will help as he is very popular in the state as well.

Pennsylvania? Biden is from Pennsylvania.

New York? Hillary, Bloomberg and his endorsements which will likely swing dramatically in Biden’s direction in the days leading up to the primary.

Georgia? If the margin closes, John Lewis has yet to publicly endorse.

Bernie is a decent man and I admire him in a lot of ways, but he’s never found a way to connect with the black vote and it seems his own instincts prevent him from realizing that they are a block of voters who can’t be courted in the same way that Latinos are. They’ve heard the promises and are much more skeptical of politicians who haven’t spent time in their communities. AOC is a rock star in the Latino community. I don’t want to generalize about an entire community and this is just my observation, but African American voters aren’t revolutionary as a voting bloc. They vote for politicians they have their interests out front. You can’t just visit black colleges- you have to visit their pulpit, something Sanders has never been comfortable doing.

If you marched with King in the 1960s, that’s wonderful, but don’t skip the Selma march in 2020. Dumbest move ever.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Secretary Clinton won Missouri.

[OnDoutside]

29. Welcome (!), and that's a great point about AOC helping Sanders with the Latino vote. Makes a lot

of sense. It's just amazing that in the 4 years since 2016, Sanders has clearly made no inroads with the African American community. I wonder what that suggests ?

[Todd79]

31. Thank you

[honest.abe]

15. Hillary Clinton won 75% of the black vote across the entire country in the 2016 primary.

To get that high of a total average would suggest she had high black vote percent in every state in every region.

I suspect Biden will do the same.

[JustAnotherGen]

16. I won't

I've made up my mind - though it will be in June - for Biden. My brother, sister, nephews, niece - most of my circle of black family and friends are not voting for Sanders.

They have their reasons, I have my reasons - and it is what it is. Working class and working poor black folks in the South have spoken - and we are listening to them.

[abqtommy]

17. I know that ALL voters are individuals. I'd rather try to herd cats than make predictions. I'll

just say that I'm looking for a good outcome for our Democratic Family...

[greenjar_01]

18. Michagan's the test case

We'll know the answer by this next Tuesday, 9pm or so.

My prediction: complete wipe out of Sanders in metro Detroit.

[NCProgressive]

19. African-Americans' love for Obama is a lot stronger than their love for Bernie

Doesn't matter where they reside.

Biden got over 70% of the AA vote on Tuesday -- going forward, it will be a much larger percentage.

[we can do it]

21. Why should they?

[Jarqui]

23. Ask yourself this question:

How does Sanders make the case that he would be a better leader for blacks than Joe Biden?

I wonder if that question has become rhetorical.

Sanders couldn't do it in 2016. And there's little evidence after Biden's surge and Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar endorsing Biden that it is going to change.

We know Bernie was wiped out by blacks in the south in 2016 and that appears to be continuing. So what about the north?

In 2016 Black Vote for large states in the north:
Illinois: Clinton 70%, Sanders 30%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 70%, Sanders 30%
Maryland: Clinton 75%, Sanders 22%
Michigan: Clinton 68%, Sanders 28%
New York: Clinton 75%, Sanders 25%
New Jersey: no exit polls but Hillary won the primary handily

Minnesota had no 2016 exit polls and was a caucus in 2016.

So the +41% margin for Biden among blacks we saw this past Super Tuesday is very similar to what we saw in many of the large northern states in 2016.

Let's look at the states with over 100 delegates that are left:
New York - the one time Sanders is ahead is when Bloomberg is in the polls, rest of the time, Joe wins the poll over Sanders
Michigan - ditto New York
Florida - Biden clobbers Sanders in the polls there
Ohio - Biden leads the polls
Georgia - Biden clobbers Sanders in the polls there
Pennsylvania - Joe was born in Scranton PA - only poll Sanders leads there is with Bloomberg - Joe leads the rest
New Jersey - only poll Sanders leads there is with Bloomberg - Joe leads the rest

Large delegate states above 80 and below 100 delegates
Maryland - only poll Sanders leads there is with Bloomberg - Joe leads the other
Wisconsin - the two polls since last April that Sanders leads are with Bloomberg, Biden leads the rest - some with Bloomberg
Indiana - Biden +10 in that poll
Washington - Sanders could win that caucus as he did in 2016 - Clinton won the primary vote for that state

The above states represent 67% of the non super delegates left in the primary.

From those states, in 2016, Sanders handily won the Washington caucus by 47 delegates, he won Indiana and Michigan by 4-5 delegates and won Wisconsin by 10 delegates. He lost the other 7 pretty badly by 20 delegates or more.

Biden is about to get a bump from Bloomberg, Buttigieg & Klobuchar dropping out and undecideds joining due to his Super Tuesday results.

So if things remain the same, and Warren stays in, there is little basis to project Sanders coming out on top.

If Warren drops out and endorses Biden, Sanders is toast because he won't get the bump he needs from her supporters.

If Biden offered Warren the VP position and she accepted, he snares a bunch of her progressives and this thing is over.

Sanders only slim hope is that Warren endorses him. Even then, it is an almost impossible task to overcome Biden without black support and the core of the party who endorsed Biden.

[Raftergirl]

24. No.

[Tarheel_Dem]

25. Anecdotally, I heard more chatter about Bloomberg than Bernie. I'm in the South, but every...

black family in the South has relatives; as we call it...."up the road". So, I don't fancy BS' chances in the broader black community any more than his chances were in the Southeast.

[zackymilly]

26. When Sanders dissed Selma, he dissed African Americans nationwide. n/t

[nolabear]

27. Nope. I'm surprised people are surprised about the AA vote.

The pragmatism and suspicion of promises of being given things runs deep. I only know the people I know but they’re proud, independent and aspire to a pretty idealistic view of what America could be. And it’s a broad mix of a fair hand up and respect for their values and hard work.

Like Joe.

[William769]

28. The only people Sanders is leading with is non voters, nt

[Moderateguy]

32. Sanders had a chance with black voters and he messed up

Black voters are not monolithic and would have been open to Sanders. But he choose to skip Selma in order to attend a majority white rally for himself. That was a slap in the face for black voters. Running false ads pretending to be besties with Obama is not going to overcome that insult.

[beachbumbob]

33. highly doubt any big increase of black voters support for Sanders. Why would they?

Nope, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania will not be kind to sanders. All have significant black population who will vote

[TwilightZone]

34. "I can find no reporting on Sanders AA vote in California"

That's probably because the counting is still ongoing, currently at 57% of the expected total.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=634329

The reports that it was done or close to done were false. Reporting figures were misinterpreted, intentionally so by some.