Bernie Sanders Cancels Mississippi Rally, Shifting Focus to Michigan

[brooklynite]

New York Times

BURLINGTON, Vt. — Senator Bernie Sanders has canceled a planned rally in Jackson, Miss., and will instead travel to Michigan on Friday, a striking indication that his presidential campaign is shifting its focus to the Midwest and largely ceding another Southern state to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., according to people familiar with the plans.

After holding a rally in Phoenix on Thursday night, Mr. Sanders had been scheduled to travel to Jackson on Friday for a rally focused on racial justice.

The change in plans suggests that Mr. Sanders will not challenge Mr. Biden for the support of black voters in the South — a vital base in the Democratic Party — and is instead going all-in on the Midwest as he tries to compete with Mr. Biden for working-class voters there. Black voters in the South have overwhelmingly backed Mr. Biden to this point, and on Super Tuesday their support lifted him in states like Alabama, North Carolina and Virginia.

In Alabama, Mr. Sanders won only 9 percent of black voters, compared with 72 percent for Mr. Biden, according to exit polls. Mr. Biden outperformed Mr. Sanders among black voters in Virginia by more than 50 points, and by 40 points or more in Texas and North Carolina. In several states, Mr. Sanders came in third among black voters, behind not only Mr. Biden but also Michael R. Bloomberg.

[Happy Hoosier]

1. Giving up on Southern Black voters and doubling down on WWC. NT

[Fresh_Start]

2. stop with rallies...do video conferences instead nt

nt

[AGeddy]

3. This is the kind of thing that happens when a campaign has entered a death spiral

When you are cancelling events in some states to try to shore up support in states you used to be strong in, the end is near.


In late October... if we see Trump cancelling events in say, PA, while adding events in Florida or Texas, we will know he is going to lose.

[uponit7771]

6. +1

[totodeinhere]

12. It's a strategic move which acknowledges that Joe Biden has a lock on the African American

vote. But whether the campaign is in a death spiral or not we shall see. If it turns out that Bernie excels in Michigan then this will be viewed as brilliant campaign strategy. But if not then yes maybe it's death spiral time.

This campaign has had so many rapid twists and turns that I am not ready to make any final conclusions just yet.

[AGeddy]

14. It's a hail mary pass on 4th and 15.

But sometimes, those passes are completed.

[democrattotheend]

62. Exactly

An upset in Michigan saved Bernie once (in the short term, at least) and I wouldn't rule out it happening again.

I remember saying the same thing in 2012 when Romney started campaigning in PA at the very last minute after some other states with early voting were slipping away. It was a hail mary pass but sometimes they are caught. Based on 2016 it's possible Romney could have won that state if he'd campaigned there before the 99th hour. Obviously I'm glad he didn't.

[honest.abe]

16. Why not at least try to cover the 15% so he doesnt get shut out entirely??

Doesnt sound like smart strategy to me. Unless he's fairly certain he cant get 15% regardless. Which is quite possible.

[totodeinhere]

19. I don't know what their internal polling is showing about Mississippi or Michigan.

But I guess that they just feel that there are more delegates to be had in Michigan whether he can reach the 15% threshold in Mississippi or not.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Because at this point, it's about optics and losing Michigan looks a lot worse...

...than getting zero delegates in MS. Yes, it's a delegate game but most people at this point aren't focused on delegates. They're focused on wins. If he loses Michigan, the narrative is going to be awful for his campaign and he'll likely not recover. If he wins Michigan, even if he loses 80-20 in Mississippi, he'll at least be able to live another day.

Not so if he loses Michigan, tho.

[honest.abe]

23. Yes perhaps. But I think he loses Michigan regardless.

Seems to me his only hope of keeping his campaign alive is to stop Biden from amassing a majority. He loses all 36 delegates in MS if he fails to get to 15%. If he gets 15% he cuts the loss considerably. But yes I totally get your point. Its a tough call.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. He's not going to stop Biden by losing Michigan.

He has to win Michigan. If he loses Michigan, regardless how many delegates he gets in MS, the floodgates will open and he's going to lose a lot more states by even wider margins.

Sanders has also said that if Biden has the delegate lead prior to the convention, that he should be the nominee. At this point, Sanders understands his only option is to prolong this race as much as possible on the off chance something happens between now and summer. Winning Michigan can help formulate a narrative that he's still in this. But losing Michigan will kill that narrative and likely end any hope of visibly carrying on.

[honest.abe]

25. I think he's done regardless.

I suspect Biden will win MI by double digits no matter what Bernie does or doesnt do.

Barring some earth shaking event Biden is our nominee.

[Drunken Irishman]

28. Probably but at that point, MS is irrelevant.

Any comeback path for Bernie starts with MI. Just as SC started Biden's. Even if Biden narrowly lost SC and claimed a good amount of delegates, losing would have ended his campaign too.

[honest.abe]

43. Yeah, that's probably correct, but I dont think he has a prayer of winning in Michigan either.

The latest polling looks good for Biden and he's still riding momentum from ST. Not sure a 10+ percent loss in Michigan does him any good.

[pampango]

59. "Sanders has also said that if Biden has the delegate lead prior to the convention, that he should

be the nominee."

I had not heard that Sanders had said that but it is good news. The idea that a 'delegate lead' (a plurality) is conclusive is the way it should be, regardless of who has the 'delegate lead'.

[wiley]

60. People are focusing on decency and integrity. Biden is winning. Bernie just quit. We won't forget.

Bernie's scurrying off to a state of any size after promising a rally for racial justice says I actually never cared at all about any voter unless I thought I could get their vote. Even if he wins Michigan - extremely unlikely at this point - he loses all standing amongst Democrats that will never forget his bared fangs of ambition that led him to discard a constituency adored by the party.

[StarfishSaver]

29. So Bernie doesn't think he needs to even try to get our votes?

And if Biden has a lock on the African-American vote, shouldn't Bernie give it up since we are a critical core of the party?

[Moderateguy]

30. Black voters are a lost cause to him

Holding a massive campaign rally in MS is not going to change that and his campaign realizes this. His only hope is that he can get a convincing win in Michigan--he needs momentum to be viable going forward. If he loses MI badly, he might as well not show up to the debate on the 15th

[StarfishSaver]

32. If black voters are a lost cause to him, maybe he should stop thinking he should be president

[squirecam]

56. This

100%

[greenjar_01]

41. Lemme tell ya bout a little place called

Detroit.

[totodeinhere]

40. He has been trying to get African American votes throughout the campaign.

But it has suddenly got to the point where he must choose his battles carefully. A loss in Michigan would probably finish him off for good so he has made the strategic decision to concentrate his resources there. But that doesn't mean that he doesn't want to continue to try to get the AA vote. It's just that Michigan is too important and he must pull out all of the stops there. And I'm sure the he will continue to welcome any and all votes from African Americans who are as you correctly indicated a very important part of the Democratic coalition.

[democrattotheend]

63. Aren't there also a lot of black voters in Michigan?

I thought a lot of the UAW members are black.

[wiley]

33. Bernie cancels "a rally focused on racial justice"

Not exactly the smartest move in any state. He also didn't show in Selma before he was trounced by women and African Americans on Super Tuesday. That's not a death spiral?

[NurseJackie]

36. Interesting priorities. Not the decision that I would have made...

Interesting priorities. Not the decision that I would have made... but then again, I'm not a Socialist who's running a lackluster campaign that's struggling to get support from AA and POC voters.

Looking at the newest and most recent polling data from Florida, it appears that Bernie won't even be a VIABLE candidate and may end up walking away with ZERO delegates. Of course the final count remains to be seen, but all I'm saying is that it's pretty clear that this is a lost cause and that Bernie should have a little dignity and bow out gracefully.

[totodeinhere]

44. It's interesting that just a few days ago he was the front runner for the nomination and the pundits

were wondering out loud if he could be stopped. Now suddenly he is a lost cause? What a rapid fall from grace. But since he has invested so much time and energy into his campaign I think that we can at least allow him to pursue his dream for a big longer. After all, there have been so many rapid twists and turns in this campaign that perhaps we should allow it to play out a bit longer just to be sure that there are no more surprises.

[StarfishSaver]

53. "We can at least allow him to pursue his dream for a bit longer"

This is about voters and beating Trump, not catering to Bernie's dreams.

[squirecam]

57. He was never actually threatening to win until Nevada

People here tried to be blunt. Bernie had a ceiling. He was never going to get more than he had in 2016, which wasn’t enough even then.

As soon as it looked like Bernie might start to be a front runner, And win with 1/3 of the vote, Biden immediately shot up in South Carolina. And then Super Tuesday.

One of the candidates would have eventually gotten the same coalition. It was not going to be Bernie. For a multitude of reasons hashed out here for years.

[democrattotheend]

64. Well said

And it's not just about him. It's about all of us who haven't had the chance to vote yet.

I find it really funny that supporters of a candidate who was left for dead a week ago are now demanding that Bernie drop out and everyone fall in line before more than half the voters even get the chance to weigh in.

Like you said, there have been many twists and turns. FWIW, I wasn't planning on voting for Bernie this year but now I'm more than 50% likely to do so. In part because I'm angry about the demands that he drop out before a lot of us even get to vote, and because I want people in states even later than mine to get a say.

[bearsfootball516]

78. What state do you vote in?

[democrattotheend]

79. New York

I think our primary is April 28.

[brooklynite]

58. Sort of like a retreat is described as a "strategic withdrawal"...

[democrattotheend]

61. Hmm, I seem to remember Biden cancelling his New Hampshire election night rally

Which a lot of people thought was in poor taste, and it probably cost him votes in the state. But it paid off in the long run for him.

[Gothmog]

68. yep

Link to tweet

[TwilightZone]

4. Smart move.

He's going to lose MS, regardless. If he loses MI, it's going to be looking grim.

[NurseJackie]

37. Grim indeed. Have you seen the latest polling data from Florida? He's not even VIABLE there!!

Grim indeed. Have you seen the latest polling data from Florida? He's not even VIABLE there!! NEARLY FIFTY POINTS BEHIND BIDEN!!!

He even poll lower than someone who's not even in the race!!

[TwilightZone]

45. With Warren out, he might make it, if barely.

If that poll is right, it would be close. 14% for Bloomberg, though, which would put Biden in the 70 range.

It's kind of funny - all of the emphasis is on the 140 or so delegates left to be awarded in CA, while 200+ could go to Biden just from Florida and it's so far a non-story. If other polls come out and back up the SPP one, it'll get some attention.

[TheCowsCameHome]

5. I guess he thinks nobody will notice.

Not good, Bern.

[Happy Hoosier]

7. He knows that if he loses MI, he is done.

Tactically, it's what he must do, but it's not a good look.

[empedocles]

15. Hope he knows he is done, if he loses Michigan. Doubt it though, he, and staff, must

know that BS lost California to election day [non early voters - mislead?] voters. If this get pounded down to voting masses - BS should be done.

Michigan allows corrected ballots. BS guess is not that many votes will be corrected/amended?

[msongs]

8. looks like he wants to avoid all those establishment working class dems lol nt

[George II]

9. Wonder if Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement of Biden today had anything to do with it?

[Submariner]

10. Will Biden make multiple trips to Wisconsin?

We lost it last time because I heard Hillary did not visit there, and they rightfully probably felt ignored. Can we win the right wing cheeseheads over, or does Trump have it locked in already?

[msongs]

18. dems stayed home in WI, like they did for supreme court race a few months back nt

[NurseJackie]

11. The population of Jackson, MS is 81.4% Black or African American, 16.4% White, and 1.14% Hispanic...

Hey google... what are the ethnic demographics of jackson mississippi?

The ethnic composition of the population of Jackson, MS is composed of 139k Black or African American Alone residents (81.4%), 27.9k White Alone residents (16.4%), 1.94k Hispanic or Latino residents (1.14%),

I guess the Sanders campaign learned a (humiliating) lesson that one time when he held a rally in North Charleston, SC... a majority black city, in a majority black neighborhood, in an historically black church's community multipurpose room... and it turned out that those in attendance were whiter than the demographics of Vermont. He was completely REBUKED and SNUBBED by the AA and POC community... even though he was right there in their own district/city/neighborhood/church, they wanted NOTHING to do with him.

I'll be he's still stinging over that, and didn't want a replay of the same thing in Jackson, MS.

[nolabear]

13. Mississippi might surprise you.

Yeah, 45 will take it in the general, sadly, but the popular vote might shock some people. The minority population in MS is YUGE.

[democrattotheend]

65. If any candidate could have won it, it was Obama

He got a huge black turnout and a higher share of the black vote than any Dem before or after him in recent years. He got 43% in MS in 2008, but he didn't even campaign there, because he knew he'd never get that additional 7%. The white vote there is so heavily Republican that it puts the state out of reach no matter how high the black turnout.

If Biden can get the same turnout and percentage of the black vote, I suppose he could theoretically have a chance, because he'll probably get a little more of the white vote than Obama did. But I don't see him or any white Democrat getting the same turnout or percentage of the black vote as Obama did. They say Hillary lost because the black vote wasn't as high, but her percentages and turnout among black voters was comparable to Gore and Kerry. Obama's was extraordinary, and it made a difference.

[Demsrule86]

17. Good luck with that...Sander's record on the auto bailout is spotty at best...he voted against

the rescue bill Bush wanted and the autos were only saved by Bush using Tarp money...He also didn't vote to release the money either...the excuse was he as against bailout...it was not really pushed before but this time the truth will out.

[democrattotheend]

66. That was before 2016

And he still won Michigan in 2016. I think most voters there would have preferred no need for a bailout that probably wouldn't have been necessary but for NAFTA.

[Demsrule86]

72. Hillary didn't go after Bernie much...you can bet it will be an issue this time...had Bush not

pulled the auto money out of TARP, the autos would have gone under. And Sanders didn't lift a finger or cast a vote to stop it.

[grossproffit]

20. He skipped Selma and now this?

[Blue_true]

70. His relationship to Black voters seem to be transactional.

He appears if it looks like they support him, otherwise he finds other things to do.

[LanternWaste]

22. He's adhering to a pragmatic tactic.

Investing more time, effort and money in the south simply to pick up a few additional percentage points in what will most likely be (all things being equal) another stunning series of losses would be an absurd decision.

He's using his resources where he believes those resources will be net him more benefit than cost.

[Jarqui]

26. That's a concession that even the Sanders campaign realizes

the pickle they are in with black voters (-41%)

On March 10th
Sanders will probably win Idaho & North Dakota as he did so in 2016.
They'll be offset by a significant loss in Mississippi where Biden will probably clobber Bernie.

Washington state is a caucus that Bernie did well in 2016 but I'm not so sure of this time around - I'm not clear if the rules changed. Hillary won the primary vote that did not seem to count but Bernie cleaned up caucus delegates. I doubt it will be that easy this time. Voting has been going on by mail for some time which should help Sanders. I'd guess the edge is with Sanders here but I'm, not sure how much the primary vote means this time around.

Missouri was a competitive state in 2016 that Hillary edged out. Bloomberg & Buttigieg did better than Sanders there while all were behind or well behind Biden. Looks good for Joe here.

Michigan looks somewhat competitive. Bernie won the state by 4 delegates in 2016. Biden has led every poll but one and that one was when Bloomberg had 11% support - in 3rd place. In the two recent polls, if you give all of Warren to Sanders and all of Bloomberg, Buttigieg & Klobuchar to Biden, Biden wins handily. I'd say it's a contest that Biden has the upper hand on.

[StevieM]

27. This is similar to what he did in 2016.

He didn't seriously contest the southern states after losing badly in South Carolina. As a result, Hillary ran up enormous margins in those states, and picked up a big delegate lead.

In 2008 Hillary was losing those states badly, but she fought for every last vote. People gave her a hard time about the caucuses, but at least she kept pursuing the southern states and the African-American vote right up to the end. Not even the media swift boating of her would prevent her from trying her best to win their support until the last dog died.

And in 2016 Hillary carefully studied the 2008 race and made improvements. The media has since written that out of the history books, but she was widely recognized as having done so during the primaries. Bernie, by contrast, has repeated some of his biggest mistakes.

I do want to be fair so I will acknowledge that Bernie has dramatically improved his standing in the Latino community. That was his big success in this race. And it speaks highly of Hillary that she was able to dominate the Latino vote against a candidate who has shown in this election that he is more than capable of building strong support among them.

[RandySF]

31. I'm so glad we have the NYT around to tell us there is no working class in Mississippi.

[StarfishSaver]

34. You didn't know Mississippi is full of black oligarchs taking advantage of the white working class?

[TwilightZone]

46. As I jokingly said in another thread...

black voters in SC will be thrilled to learn that they're suddenly rich and powerful.

[sunonmars]

35. Signs of the wheels coming off when you have to start firefighting like this.

[greenjar_01]

38. Ooooof

It's over, Johnny.

[RandySF]

39. Bernie's making a mistake.

If Joe sweeps MS. and at least keeps it close in MI, hes going to have another good night.

[SidDithers]

48. +1...

It’s all about math now, and the math isn’t in Bernie’s favour.

Let’s say Bernie puts maximum effort into MI and miraculously beat Biden by 10%. He maybe nets a +10 or +12 in delegates.

But in abandoning MS, he gets trounced like he did in AL, by 50 points. Biden nets out +18 or +20.

Bernie has a feel-good victory but falls further behind in the delegate count.

Sid

[Yavin4]

42. Sanders is going full spoiler here.

Stacking the deck in MI in order to bolster his claim that only he can win in one of the big swing states.

[TwilightZone]

47. Not really a spoiler role. It's more like a last push.

If he loses MI, it's hard to see him making any kind of run, especially if he gets blown out in Florida.

He's "stacking the deck" in Michigan because he has no choice. It's either pull that out or likely start planning his summer vacation.

[ucrdem]

74. He's going negative.

That's a problem.

[TwilightZone]

76. Agreed.

His "nobody can stop us" tweet really riled some people up, and I don't think he understands that that might have been a catalyst.

[ucrdem]

73. Yep. 2016 redux.

[zackymilly]

49. First Selma and now Mississippi. What is up with Bernie? n/t

[MineralMan]

50. Sanders can't win in Mississippi, but might in Michigan, maybe.

That's the calculation he's making. It's sad, though, since he is basically writing off the AA vote by skipping MS for MI.

There is an AA vote in Michigan, too, though. It's a lose-lose decision he's making.

[Happy Hoosier]

52. I agree overall. It's a desperation move.

But one he has to make

If he loses MS, even big, the narrative is he was expected to lose big there.

It isn't all that likely going to MI will make much more difference than a handful of delegates, But the narrative if he wins is that he is still in it, whereas if he loses, the narrative is he's finished.

I have to admit, if Biden wins MI and really finishes Sanders, it will be one of the most shocking turnarounds in history.

[MineralMan]

54. It's Hobson's Choice for Bernie Sanders

Both decisions are sketchy and likely to backfire. One, though, is certain to backfire. The other might be a little less likely to backfire.

So, he's heading for Michigan and showing his back to Mississippi. Odds are he's going to lose in both of them at this point. Biden's momentum and local support in Michigan at this point is probably strong enough to give him the win. Without multiple active candidates, it has become a binary choice for voters there.

I don't see a good outcome for Bernie in this, either way.

[Happy Hoosier]

55. Ayup.

One of my Bernie supporting friends messaged me: "He sounds confident, but he's scared. He knows this is it."

[Blue_true]

71. Biden needs to hit Michigan at least once more before Tuesday.

Even though he is ahead in MS, he needs to visit or do a tele event there.

The goal should be to cut off all paths of retreat for Sanders and basically end this thing on Tuesday. After Hillary smashed Sanders in NY and other states that voted that day, she went home for a week instead of to Indiana where she was leading in polls, Sanders used Indiana to resuscitate his campaign.

[mcar]

51. Bad move, Bernie

[Gothmog]

67. So sanders is giving up on Mississippi?

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Blue_true]

69. So, Sanders gave southern Black people another stiff-arm.

The tone deafness of his campaign is astounding, him shunning Blacks in Mississippi is going to cause Blacks in places like Detroit and Lansing Michigan to turn out to bury his campaign.

[cwydro]

75. So, he's going to his base lol.

Midwest white people.

Dayum, but that sounds familiar...

[LisaM]

77. He should still go to Mississippi, maybe in the nature of a listening tour.

I think that would be really good optics - hey, I know I'm probably not going to get your votes, but I'd love to hear what you say, and what your concerns are.

Isn't Mississippi one of the most poverty-stricken states in the nation, also? What are the optics of ignoring a poor state for one that's more relatively affluent?