These Nevada poll numbers are disturbing

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/03/31/nevada-2020-biden-and-sanders-lead-democratic-primary-field-trump-looks-to-flip-the-silver-state-red/

Typically lower trump approval goes hand in hand with bigger match up leads for Dems

Trump approval only 43% in Nevada . Yet trump wins in match up with everyone but Biden who only has a very slim lead.

Read somewhere that if trump has a 45% approval in a state, he can win it.

Biden +4 over trump
Trump +3 over Sanders
Trump +3 over Harris
Trump +4 over Buttigieg
Trump +8 over Warren

[Sherman A1]

1. It is way, way too early

to worry about poll numbers.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. Knew I should have put that in my post:)

[Hortensis]

17. Agree. Seriously, not "disturbing" at all.

But if this picture helps even one more person understand that a large majority of those who voted Trump/Republican before will vote Trump/Republican in 2020 because being against us, liberalism, socialism, etc., has become a huge part of who they are, it'll have accomplished something. They expect Trump to pass, they know the big threat they must fight, us, will not.

[bearsfootball516]

2. Hillary only won Nevada by 2.5 points.

It's a lean blue state, but there's a reason it's seen as a battleground state. I doubt whoever wins it in 2020 takes it by more than 3-4.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. It's like they don't like anyone. Think it show that we can not count on a state

Automatically picking a Dem just because they don’t love trump.

[sarabelle]

14. But she did win. Capitalize on that is what we should be doing.

Sexism, racism, homophobia would be my guess as to why Trump is ahead of all but Biden.

[shanny]

4. Early days.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. Yup

[Mike Nelson]

5. I'll give a slightly...

… different interpretation. Good for Biden, as most voters know Biden and Trump. Great for Harris and Buttigieg, as most voters may not know them very well and being that close this early is excellent. Not so good for Warren, as the majority would know her. Not so great for Sanders, as most voters would know him from the last run.

But, it's still early!

[Lochloosa]

8. I disagree about Warren. I don't think she is as well known to a lot of people.

I doubt she will be our candidate, but unless you pay attention you wouldn't know her. Most people don't pay attention this early in the process.

[Mike Nelson]

9. I can see that...

… It might be better for her, if she has some good debate moments.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. I agree. I don't think there is anyone more

Impressive as far as really understanding the details and big picture of issues. She's quite the analyst ! I think it would serve her well to modulate a bit more. Show a bit more calmness. Not dissing, just constructive criticism.

[dsc]

11. His approval is 49 in Nevada

chart just before Anita Hill in article and text in paragraph 6 just below headline Head to heads and approval

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. Ew you're right. Was going by morning consult 43%

On March 1.
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

[Demsrule86]

13. Biden can beat Trump period....our only shot.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Nevada has 36% conservatives and 25% liberals, which is identical to Florida

I have no idea how so many people are taking Nevada for granted. We have been overachieving lately, thanks to early emphasis and sophistication in Clark County, which dictates the state. But because one county has been so vital, it is equally available for the other side to figure things out and make gains, just like the GOP has done in Florida with Miami-Dade County.

I lived in Las Vegas for 24 years. I've mentioned many times that many white male friends who supported Gore and Obama then switched to Trump in 2016. That dynamic is playing out all over the place. So it is a battle between our steady demographic gains elsewhere and the simple fact that white non-college educated types were moving right in the first place, and then Trump yanked many more of them.

Hispanics have a tendency toward benefit of a doubt toward the incumbent. I mentioned that last year before any related polling. Now it has shown up in polling. Nevada is one of the states that is up for grabs depending on who squeezes out of Clark County and whether or not there is some shift in the other direction among Hispanics.

Bottom line, Florida is not as hopeless as some here prefer to believe, and Nevada is not as guaranteed. It is amazing how many states we are depending on that are in that teeter totter area of 6-11% more conservatives than liberals. The national gap is 9%.

[Gothmog]

16. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

[cwydro]

18. I think this becoming more and more apparent.

I can’t take another term with the shitgibbon.

[oasis]

19. It's Joe or bust. We can't count on Trump's image getting more shitty.

The Deplorables will like him even better.

[Gothmog]

20. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

While I am undecided, I do think that Joe Biden is the most electable candidate.

Link to tweet

Biden has been in the public eye since the 1970s, and unlike Hillary Clinton, who claimed the public never really knew her, voters feel like they know Biden pretty darn well. Many voters don’t remember anything before his vice presidency, his demonstrably warm relationship with President Barack Obama, his remarkable dignity after the death of his beloved son Beau, and his emotional goodbye to the late senator John McCain. He has established a level of emotional intimacy with voters that few politicians attain. He’s the chatty next-door neighbor, the avuncular relative and the co-worker who remembers everyone’s birthday.....

They are also unlikely to decide he’s not progressive enough. Being vice president to the most progressive president we’ve had (including his role in seemingly pushing Obama forward on gay marriage) has its advantages. Moreover, the media periodically lapses into the delusion that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are representative of the entire party.

The recent Monmouth poll of Iowa voters is instructive: Biden not only leads, but has a 78 percent favorability rating and support from the kind of Democrats who show up in primaries — moderate, older voters. Biden has support from 44 percent of seniors and 35 percent of self-described moderate and conservative Democrats. Among lower income/working-class voters whom Democrats have been desperate to attract, he gets 38 percent. Those kind of voters — not self-identified socialists, not Bernie activists on social media — are numerous and dependable voters. And they’re not exactly the kind to punish him for hugging people in distress.

The most important hurdle for Biden and for his competitors will be convincing voters he can beat President Trump. Right now, Biden has a big advantage. “While issue positions are important to Iowa Democrats, the overwhelming majority (64%) prefer to have a nominee who would be strong against Trump even if they disagree with that candidate on most issues,” the pollsters found. “If they were forced to choose, just 24% say they would favor a candidate who they are aligned with on the issues even if that person would have a hard time beating Trump. Biden garners more support among voters who prioritize beating Trump (33%) than he does among those who are looking for issue alignment (15%).”

I agree with the premise of this piece. I know Joe Biden and I like Joe Biden. The polling indicates that Joe is the most electable candidate.