Biden sneaks up on Sanders in Washington

[RandySF]

Bernie Sanders is already scrambling to blunt Joe Biden’s momentum in Michigan, where a loss on Tuesday could cripple him.

But an even more potentially disastrous outcome for Sanders is taking shape in the West.


In Washington, a progressive-leaning state that Sanders carried by a massive margin in 2016, two recent polls — both fielded after Super Tuesday — show Biden erasing the Vermont senator’s advantage. Biden led narrowly in each, though within the margin of error.
If a loss in Michigan would suggest a weakening of Sanders in the Rust Belt, an upset in Washington hours later would suggest a total crumbling of his base.



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/09/biden-sneaks-up-sanders-washington-123947

[ProudMNDemocrat]

1. If Joe takes Michigan, so goes the West.....

I believe this race for Delegates will be decided by the end of March. There might be no course for Bernie Sanders other than to realize that going on to the Convention way behind may not be in his best interest..

Voters are watching the Polls, who is ahead, taking into consideration who is behind.

[DrToast]

2. He shouldn't sneak up on someone with a bad heart!

[George II]

3. They're just about even now in Washington....

According to 538 this morning:

Michigan Biden 73, Sanders 52 (+21)
Washington Biden 44, Sanders 44 (even)
Missouri Biden 40, Sanders 28 (+12)
Mississippi Biden 27, Sanders 9 (+18)
Idaho Biden 10, Sanders 10 (even)
North Dakota Biden 7, Sanders 7 (even)
Dem Abroad Biden 7, Sanders 7 (even)

[Moderateguy]

6. Bernie needs blowout wins in MI and WA

Anything else will help him in some momentum but not in the delegate counts where it really matters

[BidenBacker]

10. So according to Nate & Boys

Biden might pick up ~50 delegates or thereabouts total on Tuesday. Not bad, but certainly not enough to put it away. Joe will probably haul in a lot more than that in Florida alone on St Pat's Day.

I look at Michigan as more of a symbolic victory...a state Dems shockingly lost in the 2016 GE and desperately needs back in the fold. Bernie barely beat Hillary there in the last primary so if Joe can get a convincing win that would show where all the auto union workers' hearts lie and would bode well for November.

Of the big 3 blue states that got away in 2016 I suspect WI will be fairly close, MI will be a solid Biden win and PA will be a blowout for Joe.

[George II]

11. Each time he gains delegates and states vote, Sanders needs a larger % of fewer available delegates.

[BidenBacker]

12. I'm not worried about the delegate math

I would just like to see Biden win the vast majority of states themselves even if he only picks up a few delegates from many of them.

I don't wanna see a map that looks like this...

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/timeline.php?year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=1

Even though Bernie was several hundred delegates behind Hillary it just gives the visual impression that it was closer than it really was.

Would much prefer one that is overwhelmingly Biden blue.

[LiberalFighter]

13. I predict it will be closer to 54 - 34 for Biden in Washington.

Biden will get at least 30 in Mississippi.


The delegates in 2016
Clinton - Sanders
MI * 63 - 67
WA * 27 - 74
MO * 36 - 35
MS * 31 - 5
ID * 3 - 12
ND * 5 - 13
DA * 4 - 9

Totals * 169 - 215 * Net 46

Biden - Sanders
538's totals * 208 - 157 * Net 51

It will in my opinion be about a Net 71 based on my projection for Washington. Probably higher.

[Johnyawl]

4. This article is somewhat misleading re WA state

...In Washington, a progressive-leaning state that Sanders carried by a massive margin in 2016,....

In 2016 we were still using caucuses to chose our delegates, and that was followed by a primary a couple of months later. Sanders won the caucuses in March overwhelmingly getting 70+% of 230,000 votes cast. HRC won the primary in May getting 52% of the 800,000 votes cast.

Think of it as the "electoral college" (caucuses) vs the "popular vote" (primary). Sanders had an overwhelming victory in the caucuses, winning the majority of the delegates, but lost the popular vote.

We have since gotten rid of the caucuses and gone to just a primary. I expect Biden to win this, although not by a significant margin.

One caveat, we have mail-in voting and that has been underway for the past 3 weeks. We send our ballets in right away, I voted for Biden, my wife voted for Warren. My wife is in a 'women in tech' social media group, and she says the majority of those women voted for Warren. Warren could cut into Sanders support.

[NurseJackie]

5. If Bernie wins small... it's as good an outright LOSS.

He needs some BIG WINS in BIG TICKET states if he's going to have half a chance of even looking like he's viable. At this rate, he's not going to make it. His campaign is as good as over, and he knows it.

[MineralMan]

8. I don't think there are any big ticket states left

that Sanders will sweep, frankly.

[MineralMan]

7. Since Washington uses mail-in ballots exclusively,

a lot of people have already voted. I suspect that will blunt some of Biden's momentum in that state's results.

There will probably be plenty of votes, too, for candidates who are no longer running in WA.

[BidenBacker]

9. Question

Biden sneaks up on Sanders in Washington

How do you sneak up on somebody who's behind you?

[LiberalFighter]

14. Walk backwards?

[BidenBacker]

15. I've liked Joe a long time

but I could do without watching him try to do the moonwalk.

[Cha]

16. Joe Biden came out of South Carolina

Full Steam Ahead!