If a SC primary and a couple low-percentage candidates dropping out

[pnwmom]

was enough to cause such a massive swing, then Sanders support was shaky all along.

Tomorrow's going to be a key day.

[PubliusEnigma]

1. a mile deep, an inch wide

[NurseJackie]

2. It will be DEVASTATING for Bernie. He needs to WIN BIG in Michgan... he wont.

It will be DEVASTATING for Bernie. He needs to WIN BIG in Michgan... he wont. Instead, he'll LOSE BIG.

[customerserviceguy]

17. It's probably

going to be bad for Sanders, but we have another debate coming on Sunday.

Yes, Joe Biden had a pretty good one (probably his best) in South Carolina, but it was the exception. He'll have a lot more talk time in the next debate, and Bernie tends to stay on message during debates.

Remember, a lot of us (me included) thought Biden was dead in the water after the "lying, dog-faced pony soldier" comment. If he trips up on his words again, or utters insane non-sequiturs during the next debate, the nomination is not necessarily in the bag.

Besides, both candidates are still fully engaged in retail campaigning, it is not impossible for one, the other, or both of them to contract coronavirus while on the trail, and the consequences of a serious illness will have effects on their electability.

They're walking through a minefield.

[Demsrule86]

27. If Biden wins big tomorrow, the debate should be cancelled...having Sanders attack our

nominee for two hours is foolish to say the least. And we have Corona virus to worry about.

[DrToast]

3. 2016 was a mirage

He had support against Hillary, but Biden, it seems, is much more likable.

[pnwmom]

10. Hillary won by 4 million primary votes. Her supporters found her plenty likable. n/t

[DrToast]

12. Bernie got 44% of the vote

But he’s getting nowhere near that in 2020 against Biden.

[pnwmom]

13. It's not been a 2 person race. Biden also hasn't getting nearly what Hillary did.n/t

[DrToast]

14. I'm talking about head-to-head

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287650333

[pnwmom]

21. The polls don't matter, except for the ones at the ballot box.

Tomorrow will be key.

[BidenBacker]

19. I think the numbers back up your assertion

Michigan will make that clear.

But I just got booted off another Hillary thread so I best bite my tongue and say no more.

Ouch! Bit too hard.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Sanders has baggage from 2016

Sanders is no longer a novelty. Ironically, Joe Biden, who's been in Washington almost forever, is new and fresh because he sat out 2016. He's fresh, and his campaign sounds it.

Don't know how the same ol' same ol' Sanders message expected to win new converts this time around. The portion of his base that is non-working must be quite a bit smaller.

[Vivienne235729]

26. I think you hit the nail on the head.

[Firebrand Gary]

5. I hope that Sanders ends his campaign on Wednesday.

I watched a clip today where he's claiming that he'd be leading if other candidates had not dropped out. What concerns me about that is he's not operating in pure ego. He doesn't seem to understand that people are voting for other candidates; that they're not interested in his message.

If he loses Michigan, he needs to drop out. period.

[pnwmom]

11. He doesn't even realize how silly that sounds. He'd be leading if there weren't

five other candidates.

He thought having 30% would be enough to make him inevitable. It isn't.

[BidenBacker]

20. Bernie must be a big fan of the Italian system

where they got like 30 different parties and the winner is the one who gets 5% of the vote.

Not real stable, that Italy. They change governments more than I change socks and underwear.

[el_bryanto]

6. We'll see what happens

If Biden wins the nomination - than we'll support him and enjoy somewhat more intelligent public policy. I still hope things go the other way and we get Sanders.

Bryant

[TwilightZone]

7. Biden was already trending upward and he was always going to do well in SC.

That's a part of this that nearly everyone forgets. The trend was already starting to swing in the last few polls pre-SC. The apparent trend wasn't this drastic, but the projections of 538 and others gave people a false sense of where the race was at the time.

What I didn't realize about Sanders' huge swing at 538 pre-SC is that the model was partly so strong for Sanders because it thought Biden might drop out before SC. Of course that would have a huge effect on projections.

[pnwmom]

22. Their model thought Biden might drop out? What a joke. nt

[TwilightZone]

24. Yeah, that surprised me. I've looked at their models a bit differently since then.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-hasnt-exactly-collapsed-since-new-hampshire/

"Ever since he finished fourth in Iowa, Biden has no longer been the favorite in South Carolina, according to our model. Sanders currently has a 1 in 2 (47 percent) chance of winning South Carolina, while Biden has a 2 in 5 (37 percent) shot. However, part of the reason our model has Sanders as the favorite is that it thinks Biden could drop out before South Carolina even votes. In the scenarios where Biden is still in the race come Feb. 29, though, he is probably still favored in the Palmetto State."

[pnwmom]

28. "it thinks"??? A human being programmed some assumptions in. That was a big assumption."

[LizBeth]

8. Democrats got behind one as opposed to five. Sanders never had it.

[BidenBacker]

9. 2020 was a weird year

The field was abnormally and ridiculously large. I guess everybody looked at Trump and figured "hell, if that imbecile can become President then I sure as hell can!".

2008 and especially 2016 were the exact opposite...very few people ran and it quickly became a head-to-head match with not much choice.

There must be a happy medium somewhere between the two extremes.

[MineralMan]

15. I think it was all fooling everyone. Sanders hit his ceiling

early, but there were so many candidates that the rest got divided up. Once they dropped out, Sanders stayed at his ceiling, and Biden leaped ahead.

[BidenBacker]

18. Didn't help matters

that the first contest was a totally screwed-up caucus in a lily-white state. The second was a primary in a lily-white state in Bernie's back yard. And the third contest was some weird hybrid caucus/primary.

In retrospect, none of these first three was indicative of the electorate as a whole and a lotta people put way too much emphasis on the results. Bernie was probably nowhere near as formidable as he seemed at the time.

[MineralMan]

23. Exactly.

[NCProgressive]

16. Just like with Trump

we now know what Sanders is ... we didn't back then.

[Demsrule86]

25. Today's polls at real clear politics are Biden all the way.

And the support was never deep...you are right.

[Turin_C3PO]

29. I'd call Bernie's support

deep but not wide. Biden’s is both.