Election Update: Biden's Delegate Lead Is Now Nearly Insurmountable

[NurseJackie]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-bidens-delegate-lead-is-now-nearly-insurmountable/

Mar. 18, 2020, at 12:52 PM
Election Update: Biden’s Delegate Lead Is Now Nearly Insurmountable
It might be a while before the next primary is held, but the race is all but over.

By Geoffrey Skelley
Filed under 2020 Election

With Tuesday’s elections now in the rearview mirror, we’ve turned the FiveThirtyEight forecast back on. It now accounts for the results in Florida and Illinois, plus partial results in Arizona. But overall, very little has changed. Biden entered the March 17 primaries as an overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, and he remains in the same position today.

Our updated forecast shows Biden’s average pledged delegate count just shy of 2,400 delegates — about the same as before. A candidate needs 1,991 pledged delegates to clinch the majority, so Biden looks set to easily clear that bar even though it might now be a while before the next primary. Sanders did gain very slightly in our average delegate forecast — and some of that is because of how bullish the model has been on Biden — but his chances of winning a majority essentially did not change.
Biden is still an overwhelming favorite to win

Change in our forecast for the top two candidates after the March 17 primaries, as of 10 a.m. Eastern on March 18

[data table here]

The chances that no candidate wins a majority also inched up, but again, we’re talking about tiny shifts that aren’t all that meaningful in the grand scheme of things.

In terms of the pledged delegates that have been awarded so far, Biden has won about 300 more than Sanders, which is a nearly insurmountable lead. To claim the nomination, Sanders would need not only to win a bunch of states, but to do so by very large margins. And after yesterday’s races, there’s no reason to think that’s going to start happening.

[more at link]

[Sloumeau]

1. NurseJackie, thanks for posting this! :)

This is good news for Joe Biden!



The short version of this is: Senator Bernie Sanders is toast.

[NurseJackie]

2. The inability of the BS campaign to accept this, move forward, and make the right decisions...

The inability of the BS campaign to accept this, move forward, and make the right decisions... well... it's a very good indicator of what a Sanders Administration would be like. It also indicates to me that a Sanders Administration wouldn't get very much accomplished.

All I'm trying to say is, if he (and staff) can't check their pride and ego at the door, and make simple and obvious decisions, then there's no way a Sanders Administration would be able to make the tough decisions.

It's my firm belief that all future chair and committee assignments should be contingent on his swift withdrawal and his full throated and sincere endorsement of Joe Biden... along with his continued, cooperative, and coordinated help in taking the fight directly to the GOP... and an immediate and permanent cessation of all hostilities, smears, lies, divisive and derogatory remarks about Democrats, the Democratic party, and Joe Biden.

There's really no two ways about it. Either he's with-us, or he's not. If he's an "ally" then he needs to start acting like one. If he cannot act like one, if he cannot get with the program... then the Democratic party (which he refuses to join) needs to stop affording him certain honors, assignments, privileges. I think that's a perfectly reasonable condition to make. There's nothing wrong with setting minimum standards and having higher expectations.

[Iamaartist]

3. He is is just wasting time for all...by staying in.

[Indykatie]

4. And Yet Bernie Persists

[NurseJackie]

5. It's a dangerous game. His top campaign staff continue their efforts at kneecapping Biden.

It's a dangerous game. His top campaign staff continue their efforts at kneecapping Biden and denigrating the party. Such efforts do not help Bernie at this late date. But it does help to divide and weaken the Democratic party. Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

[Vivienne235729]

12. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

6. Kick

[Cha]

7. Can't wait until it's..

"No Way In Hell".

Thanks Jackie

[NurseJackie]

8. Stand by.

[Cha]

14. Yeah.. not holding

breath.

[NCProgressive]

11. No way in hell doesn't stop Bernie

Which makes me question his motives.

[Cha]

15. omg that's right.. well that's

his choice if that's how he wants to be remembered.

[oasis]

9. Bernie's stringing this out but we're supposed to schmooze his fans.

[NCProgressive]

10. Bernie will need to win approximately 60% of the remaining delegates

to get to 1991.

He has never won a primary by that huge a margin and there are no caucuses left in high-delegate states.

[GulfCoast66]

13. I don't care. Do you?

The entire nation knows this is between trump and Biden. Bernie has turned himself into a parity of himself. Let him keep hanging on. Americans want normalcy. They are tired of radical trumpism and are in no mood for a radical socialist revolution. Ironically, the longer Bernie hangs on the more it helps Joe and hurts the socialist revolution.