Early-state Democratic activists have very different views of the candidates than the polls

[DesertRat]

Link to tweet

@NateSilver538
Early-state Democratic activists have very different views of the candidates than the polls. Quite down on Sanders & Biden, and not really feeling Beto at all.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-asked-democratic-activists-who-theyre-backing-and-who-theyd-hate-to-see-win/

[tblue37]

1. I'm glad to see they're feeling good about Warren and Harris. nt

[snort]

2. Harris/Buttigieg

[Kurt V.]

3. Obviously booker is the surprise here. i could vote for the top 4 quick.

[BlueWI]

4. Good news IMO.

Warren and even Inslee do better here, and the best moderate candidate, Kloubuchar, does better too. I would love to see the race shift this way, and we have on this platform been hyperfocusing on the general polls.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

5. Wait. What?

As part of my ongoing book research, I’ve been in touch with roughly 60 Democratic activists in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and Washington, D.C.,1 asking them about their preferences for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. About 35 people from the respondent pool participated in each wave of interviews. I’m interested in learning about whether these activists are committed to a candidate or whom they’re considering if they still haven’t made up their mind.

Lol. Why even use a graph? For such a tiny sampling he could have just said 3 people liked this candidate and 5 people liked that candidate etc etc.

I guess a graph looks more scientific and official.

[Go Vols]

6. lol

[Hassin Bin Sober]

7. A couple more people jump in and we'll have more candidates than the sample size.

[DesertRat]

8. Yeah, Nate is getting a lot of pushback in that twitter thread. nt

[Kurt V.]

9. right. the sample size definitely is representative of us

[Gothmog]

10. Thank you for posting this

[ecstatic]

11. I think Booker is very underrated on DU. He's definitely going to be

one of the heavyweights come debate time, alongside Harris.

[a kennedy]

12. Wonder why Cory Booker wasn't invited to this event.....

and will CNN have another, wonder how their ratings are doing?? Wonder how all those students are handling all the candidates, yikes.....having to sit there for 5 hours.

[ecstatic]

13. IKR? I was just thinking that (Re: sitting for 5 hours).

I know CB had a town hall on CNN a few weeks ago, which is still sitting on my DVR. But I'm sure they'll have him back again soon for the next marathon session.

[BlueFlorida]

14. Eye opening

It is great that the activists have their feet firmly planted in reality and are not supporting Gabbard or Sanders.