At first I was skeptical that Biden could flip Trump voters, but...

[JaneQPublic]

...one such voter I know said he could see voting for Uncle Joe.

He's an old friend of mine, a white male in his 60s, living in a small midwestern city, and always claiming to be an Independent disgusted by both parties yet always voting Republican while ridiculing the Dems.

Well, yesterday as a joke he posted on Facebook a list of songs to commemorate Biden's campaign announcement, e.g., "U Can't Touch This" by MC Hammer, "Sometimes When We Touch" by Dan Hill, and many others.

After a bunch of folks responded how Biden's touching wasn't anything compared to Trump's sexual assaults and how #45 was rotten and despicable to the core, my old friend agreed and said, "That's why I would seriously consider voting for Biden."

I was gobsmacked.

Perhaps before Nov. 2020 he'll find some excuse to retreat to the Trump train, but if his consideration of a Biden alternative is any indication of how a few other Trump voters are thinking, then that certainly ads some credence to the Biden "electability" claim.

[MineralMan]

1. There's more than one kind of Trump voter.

The hardcore right-wingers don't matter. They'll vote for him no matter what. But, there are a lot of people who just voted for the Republican, not realizing that they were voting for a madman. Those voters are switchable.

Biden has a quality that will attract some of that second group. I don't consider it all that important, but it possibly could be, in states like PA, WI and MI, which we really need to get back. Joe's a regular guy. That will bring in some of the regular guy vote, and we can use all the votes we can get, frankly.

[JaneQPublic]

7. At the very least, he should win back the former Obama voters...

...who voted for Trump in 2016.

[MineralMan]

8. Do we know how many of those there were?

I'm not sure we do, really.

[JaneQPublic]

11. Best info I could find:

From Larry Sabato:

Different sources offer varying estimates of Obama 2012-Trump 2016 voters. The ANES found that about 13% of all Trump voters cast a ballot for Obama in 2012. Meanwhile, the CCES found a slightly smaller figure of around 11%. Lastly, the UVA Center for Politics poll found that about 15% of Trump voters claimed to have backed Obama four years earlier. Using these percentages (not rounded) and Trump’s overall 2016 vote total, estimates of the raw number of such Obama-Trump voters range from about 6.7 million to 9.2 million. That’s a wide range, and considering the caveats regarding voter recall of past votes, it is important to be clear about the relative uncertainty of these figures.

MORE...
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/just-how-many-obama-2012-trump-2016-voters-were-there/

[MineralMan]

13. Well, getting those voters back would be very, very useful.

Biden probably could do that, I think.

[betsuni]

24. Obama to Trump, 9%. Romney to Clinton, 6%.

According to John Sides, Michael Tesler and Lynn Vavreck's "Identity Crisis":

"... attitudes concerning race, ethnicity, and religion were more strongly related to how Americans voted in 2016 than in recent elections. By contrast, the apparent impact of economic anxiety was much smaller and not particularly distinctive compared to earlier elections. This activation of racial attitudes helped Trump more than Clinton. Despite the ongoing alignment of racial attitudes and partisanship, as of 2012 a substantial minority of white Obama voters still expressed less favorable views of immigration, undocumented immigrants, African Americans, and other minority groups. Trump's appeal to these voters helped ensure that Obama supporters in 2012 who voted for Trump in 2016 outnumbered Romney supporters who voted for Clinton. And because these voters were disproportionately represented in battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, they helped Trump win the Electoral College -- especially when the coalition that elected Obama did not show up for Clinton in comparable numbers.

"Many observers dismissed the role of race in 2016 by arguing that Obama voters could not have had unfavorable views of racial minorities. The liberal filmmaker Michael Moore said this about voters who had supported Obama and then Trump: 'They're not racist. ... They twice voted for a man whose middle name is Hussein.' But this is just as inaccurate as saying everyone who voted against Obama was racially prejudiced. In fact, Obama even garnered support from whites with explicit prejudiced views. ... Although many of those voters then left the Democratic Party during Obama's presidency, there were still plenty of white Obama voters who could end up voting for Trump specifically because of a campaign centered on issues like race and immigration.

"Trump's success among whites without a college degree was a key reason that voters who voted for Obama in 2012 but Trump in 2016 were more numerous than voters who went in the opposite direction, from Romny to Clinton."

[bloom]

21. I don't think we can assume

that people who voted for Obama with Biden as VP would vote for Biden as president.

I think a candidate more like Obama would do that. Biden does not seem like he would draw the same people at all.

Actually - I think having a woman to vote for would get more people mobilized that Biden.

[Demsrule86]

26. Yes he can ...fired up and ready to go.

I think we can assume he would attract the same voters, he can win the rustbelt.

[DownriverDem]

17. Don't forget blue collar workers

Biden has always had a close relationship with blue collar workers. They will vote for him because they know how much trump has screwed them. trump needs Pennsylvania to win. Biden was born and raised in Pennsylvania and should win the state. Biden/Harris would sure be a winner.

[MineralMan]

18. That group is unpredictable, really.

It can vote for Democrats or it can vote for tyrants. It all depends on the message that is delivered. Trump delivered a message of fear. Biden would deliver a message of fairness and benefits.

Fear is the stronger emotion. Fear of the "others" is the strongest tool of the populist from the right. Trump leveraged that fear successfully.

It can be very difficult to counter that approach.

[LongtimeAZDem]

2. A lot of my moderate Republican friends are disgusted with Trump, and have said that

if our candidate had been anyone other than Clinton (the Right hates her with a purple passion), they would have voted against Trump.

One of the best things about Biden is that, despite his liberal positions, he's been around for so long that he actually works as a conservative choice.

[bloom]

22. The right are going to be taught to hate any Democrat who might win.

Yes - they had years to work against Hillary. But still - people need to keep that in mind. Anyone will be tarred.

[Demsrule86]

33. Biden has already been vetted. They won't have much success .

[bearsfootball516]

3. Biden is very popular in the midwest

There are a lot of Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania Obama/Trump voters who would vote for Biden if he gets the nomination. They voted for Trump in 2016 not so much because they loved him but because they really didn't like Hillary but didn't want to stay home.

[louis c]

4. Those are the voters that Biden can capture...

...I see the same thing at work sites. Men who derided Hillary say they can vote for Joe.

Take just the international firefighter's union. In 2016, they sat out the primary and the general election. They endorsed Biden before he even announced.

White, male union workers who were evenly split in most swing states and slightly for Trump in others, like Ohio, will vote 2 to 1 for Biden. In addition, upper, middle class moderate independents who lean Republican and will be appalled by a "Socialist" candidate will vote overwhelmingly for Biden.

So, if Democrats who say they hate Trump don't vote 3rd party out of spite and do vote for Biden as the binary choice, we'll win without a problem. But if those Democrats pull a 2016 pity party, we can still win by taking votes away from Trump. Remember, Trump won 4 states by 1% or less: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

[Demsrule86]

27. Excellent analysis. Biden has the best chance in 20.

[WeekiWater]

5. The right wing attacks on Biden's empathy are going to backfire.

They recently backfired when it was coming from the "left".

[HopeAgain]

6. This is my honest concern

Do we focus on the changeable Trump voters who would go for someone like Biden, or do we try to really animate the more liberal voters who either stayed home in 2016 or voted for an independent?

I have three sons under thirty, all now eligible to vote. I know their friends and associates, many of whom I can't say for sure will vote for a moderate just to get rid of Trump. There's a chance they will because Trump is so bad, but they are not at all excited by a moderate. If it weren't for Trump, I could pretty much guarantee they wouldn't come out for Biden, just as they weren't excited with Hillary.

Personally, I think there are more votes to be picked up by an animated left than by disillusioned former Trumpers. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm not a pollster, and I am seeing a more suburban/urban electorate where I stand.

[Pisces]

9. No, you go for people who have proven to vote in the past.

Warren does not animate or excite any young voters. She has great policy ideas but does not have “ It”. She would be great in the cabinet. This is a serious time and we must get Trump out. He’s a wrecking ball

[LongtimeAZDem]

10. Well put

[yardwork]

12. They had better grow up if they want the country to survive.

I'm very annoyed and disappointed that so many people in the US are so sexist they can't bring themselves to vote for a woman. However, I'm not going to stay home or vote third party. Like millions of other American women, I'll vote for our Democratic candidate even if they aren't my favorite choice.

[Demsrule86]

32. I hear you. I am disappointed too,

[honest.abe]

15. If another 4 years of Trump isnt enough to get them "excited" enough to vote...

then they are hopeless.

It probably wont matter as Biden will bring in other voters enough to win this thing.

[Cosmocat]

19. A poll shows that the the candidate most favored by milinials is ... Biden

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/434639-poll-biden-leads-among-millennial-voters

[Demsrule86]

31. Interesting. I am not surprised...such a decent man

[UniteFightBack]

23. But are those people who need to picked up by an animated left living in the states we need?

[Demsrule86]

29. I said essentially the same...and no we will win the popular vote with such voters but not the

Electoral College.

[Demsrule86]

28. We need to win three states to stop Trump...OH,PA and MI,

The more liberal voters of which you speak are in the wrong states, Trump is going for an electoral college win

[honest.abe]

14. No doubt he will capture many moderate Republicans.

Many are freaked out about what Trump is doing. Joe is an about face to all of that and is moderate enough to not scare them off.

[Chakaconcarne]

16. Perhaps part of that equation is Joe is a white male.....

Unfortunate but true... but I guess if it means Trump will be gone and hopefully the prosecutions can proceed, then i guess we can't complain too much.

[JaneQPublic]

20. Yeah, because Biden hasn't yet stated any policy positions.

Everyone ID's him as a moderate, but that's based on what? His votes 40 years ago? His stances in previous POTUS campaigns, the last one being over 10 years ago? His pronouncements as Obama's VP, when his job was to publicly back up Obama's decisions?

Keep in mind, Joe was the one who got the Obama administration to finally embrace same-sex marriage, putting him to the left on at least one issue.

So, yeah, whether former Trump voters will support Biden clearly has more to do with his gender, race, and perhaps age/experience than it does his current positions and plans.

Plus, he's so darned "likeable," which is an attribute rarely attributed to women candidates.

[Demsrule86]

30. He is not actually moderate. He hold progressive opinions on climate change and

free college...other things as well. He is pragmatic and will get what he can

[NYMinute]

25. People want order, normalsy and dignity

Joe provides that. He may not win the trumpanzees close to Trump's nucleus but people in outer orbits can easily be pried away.

[NBachers]

34. For now, I see Joe as the monster who overshadows the rest of the pack. Let's see if that continues.