'Republicans should be really worried': Enten on special elections

[Uncle Joe]

Democrats notched another victory Saturday in special elections during President Donald Trump's second term, flipping a seat in the Texas Senate in a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024.

0:00 Harry Enten runs the numbers on TX special election
1:40 How do special elections forecast general elections?
3:53 Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) on electoral prospects
5:37 Audie Cornish's Group Chat discussion

[LuvLoogie]

1. They're not worried. They'd be relieved.

They could deny their complicity, while trump seizes ballot boxes.

[Bluetus]

2. Special elections are --- special

I don't know that we can extrapolate too much. However, the big issue is that it is spiraling out of control on the Republicans. Trump can't moderate his behavior, and Bannon/Miller won't. Each one of these special elections seems to be getting worse for the GOP. What that says is that, after a few years of attracting support with social wedges (gay bathrooms, Haitians eating dogs, etc), Americans are coming to realize that having masked goods smash your car windows and drag you out on the pavement is a lot worse then somebody playing girls' softball with a but too much testosterone in their blood., if that ever really even happened at all.

The key thing is that it is now February in election year. We are quickly approaching the point where the GOP can't turn this around by polishing their turds. On the contrary, it seems more likely that Trump is bound to raise the stakes by bombing Iran and escalate his tariff wars. I don't think that is going to help him.

The big question now is, if Dems take the House but not the Senate, do we have a leadership that will use that considerable power aggressively and not just acquiesce things away?

[BaronChocula]

3. Great short-term news

The long-term problem is it takes a lot to create these Democratic swings. It takes a lot less to create republican swings.