US blockade threat on Iran risks wider global disruption, analyst warns - Al Jazeera English

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The United States military has announced a plan to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports on Monday after peace talks in Pakistan concluded without a deal.

Professor Mehran Kamrava of Georgetown University in Qatar and Director of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies told Al Jazeera that Trump has once again engaged in "extremist rhetoric," adding that "the devil is in the details" regarding whether a blockade can be enforced without triggering Iranian retaliation.

Kamrava warned that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has not hesitated to hit energy facilities in Gulf states, and that Iran has "consistently surprised us" throughout the conflict — from hitting Gulf states to not buckling early on — suggesting more surprises may be in store. He noted that Iran has already laid mines in the strait and has "lost track of those mines, which adds to the hazardous journey."

On great power dynamics, Kamrava said there are indications that China and Russia are giving Iran intelligence information but not necessarily supplies, though a prolonged war could change their calculus — especially China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, which would be "extremely detrimental" to its economy if the strait is closed.

Despite progress in Islamabad talks except on one or two key issues, Kamrava said neither side wants escalation, but Trump is a "victim" of his own extremist rhetoric and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's expansionist policies. - 04/13/2026.