Let's talk about Iran's new leader, oil disruptions, intelligence, and Trump's lack of planning.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Iran's new leader, oil disruptions, intelligence, and Trump's lack of planning.

We're going to run through a string of developments to try to keep everybody current. But things are evolving quickly.

First, in an attempt to stem rising oil prices, the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of strategic reserves. It did not work, and the organization is now referring to the situation as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

People turned to the US Navy, especially because the Trump administration has repeatedly indicated the Navy would escort ships only to find out the reporting says the Navy has refused requests and the US energy secretary has said the Navy isn't ready to provide escorts yet.

Meanwhile, Iran's new Supreme Leader released his first statement. He basically promised to continue hitting US bases around the region as long as they're used to launch attacks against Iran and to keep pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also seems confident enough to be making demands and seem to be demanding reparations for the damage caused by the attacks. As I'm putting this together, oil prices were right at $100 per barrel again.

The US is trying to pin the strike on the school as being the fault of old targeting information, which might be part of the problem. But the old targeting packages being used without updates and double-checking is actually a larger problem. The problem doesn't end with we got old info. The problem continues with we used old info. This is going to be a tester fence moment of ROEs. They're not politically correct. They're not woke. They save lives.

US intelligence is saying they're more worried about drones and missiles hitting ships in the Strait than mines. Experts have told us that US intelligence is probably correct about the higher priority, but that they might be underestimating the threat Iran's naval mines pose.

And to round things out, we have US intelligence saying the government in Iran is still largely intact and is nowhere near falling. That lines up with previous assessments that said the opposition groups in Iran were unlikely to be able to take power after even an extended campaign.

Trump's Iran campaign is weakening US positioning and the balance of power elsewhere as resources are having to be redeployed from other regions to the Middle East. At this point, it's becoming clear that Trump will need to alter his victory conditions for his elective war. That's a nice way of saying that his stated objectives won't be achieved. It's likely that intelligence assessments told him this before he plunged the region into war based on his feeling.

He wanted to have a say in Iran's new ruler. That didn't happen. And it seems unlikely that it will even if the US continues to target leadership in the country. In fact, at this point, it seems like the US has steeled the resolve in the country and that continued forced leadership changes will likely lead to even more hardline personalities coming to power. We won't feel the full results from Trump's war for years.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.