Let's talk about Trump cutting your healthcare to pay for his war.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump cutting your healthcare to pay for his war.

Republicans are talking about another budget reconciliation package and we're already getting questions. So, to head off some clickbait and doomsaying, we're going to run through a question really quick. Here's a question.

"Miss Belle, Republicans are trying to do another budget reconciliation to fund ICE and Trump's Epstein war. Some of my friends are crashing out because a lot of libs are saying they'll use it to get around the filibuster, to cut healthcare, to fund the war, enact the SAVE Act, and more. The birdie bath still applies here, right? They won't actually be able to do all of this, right?"

The birdie bath is a reference to something called the Byrd rule. It's a Senate rule that limits the budget reconciliation process to things, you know, related to the budget. The Byrd rule, which leads to things being bird bathed, will still apply. A bird bath is things being tossed because they aren't really budget related. There will be an explainer below.

Okay. So, what can they do? Almost all of the SAVE Act is out immediately. Those aren't budget provisions. They can cut federal spending on healthcare to pay for the war or ICE or anything along those lines and it looks like they plan to. They'll try to frame the healthcare cuts as an attack on fraud, waste, and abuse. But as we saw the last few times they use that rhetoric, it's not true.

House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington of Texas has already brought up the idea of cost sharing reductions to the Affordable Care Act. The CBO said the plan would lead to another 300,000 people being uninsured.

The big thing is they need to pay for the war and they probably don't want to put all of the money it'll take to repair the bases, replace the planes, along with all of the money Trump is wasting on this into a single bill and just try to pass it because the American people will see what Trump's war cost them. So they'll try to use the budget reconciliation process.

Now, there is one bit of good news here. This isn't just after an election like the last budget reconciliation package. It's going to be just before one. Vulnerable politicians will probably be very leery of making more cuts right before an election and reminding voters of all the other things Republicans took away from them. A lot of Republican politicians have serious buyer remorse over the one Big Beautiful Bill, which was basically the rich kicking their voters in the teeth.

Napkin Math says that right now Republicans don't even have the votes to get it out of the House. You have angry fiscal hawks burned by the last budget reconciliation. You have people opposed to the war who don't want to fund it, and you have vulnerable Republicans who will only hold their seat through divine intervention, and you have the fact that Trump is quacking louder and louder.

This is something to watch, but it doesn't look like Republicans have the votes for anything controversial right now.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.