Let's talk about how Trump lost and gave Iran something better than a nuke.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about how Trump lost and gave Iran something better than a nuke.

Okay, we're going to start off by going over why nations engage in conflict. It isn't to hold a boxing match and see who can fight the best. It's to advance the position and policies of the state. As Clausewitz said, war is a continuation of politics by other means.

The purpose of war is to achieve a goal. It's an instrument of policy. You can win all the battles and lose the war because policy aims weren't achieved. Likewise, you can lose the battles and win the war. War isn't a video game where winning the battles gets you a victory.

What were the policy aims of this war? Nobody really knows, right? But vaguely it's something to do with nuclear weapons. Trump won't let Iran have a nuke, and they want one, right? But do they though? Or would a nuke just be the means to affect policy? What's the purpose of nukes today? To destroy cities? No, it's not 1945. Once that power was demonstrated, their use changed. It's to tie your national security to international security.

We've talked about it before when we talked about the EU standing on its own and needing more nukes to establish deterrence and make sure nobody brings a war to their soil. How do nukes do that? Is it the number of people lost? Do you believe the ruling class cares about that? Look at the numbers of Russians lost in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands. The power of a nuke is the removal of economic and production capability.

Don't believe me? Look at the response to COVID. Millions of people globally. The ruling class response was to encourage economies to stay open. The economy and production was more important. Iran really doesn't need a nuke anymore because they now know, not think, but know they've tied their national security to international security.

Trump admitted it himself. "Look, problem with the strait. A guy can take a mine, drop it in the water, and say, oh, it's unsafe. It's not like you're taking out an army or you're taking out a country.”

Even after Trump claimed they were militarily defeated, they control the strait. Trump just gave Iran their Trinity test. They know they can inflict global economic pain. Their national security is now tied to international security via economics. Not through mastery of vision, but by mastery of geography.

Iran wanted to create a deterrent against invasion. Shutting down the strait gives them a deterrent. No deal Trump might be able to work out can take that away from them. Their deterrent might be even better than a nuke because shutting down the strait doesn't carry the moral implication of threatening to wipe out a civilization.

Iran's policy aims were advanced. Were US policy aims advanced? Winning wars is about changing the international landscape for the betterment of national interests. Do you think the US achieved that?

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.