Let's talk about Trump, Madman theory, and the search for reason.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump, Madman theory and the search for reason.

To explain Trump's apparent bumbling about on the foreign policy stage that consistently seems to undermine his own objectives, those seeking to defend his actions on the international scene have latched on to an explanation for his behavior. Madman theory. It's pretty clear that many of those offering this as an explanation are not really familiar with it, nor familiar with the historical examples. If they were, they probably wouldn't be suggesting it as a defense.

So, what is Madman theory? It's a foreign policy theory that suggests it is advisable to make the world think you're a volatile, irrational, emotional, and belligerent person and therefore, you're so unpredictable it's best to just leave you alone or give you concessions when the time comes. The rhetoric says that Trump said all of that stuff about eliminating a civilization and so on because he's trying to be a madman. He's not really so unbalanced that the 25th amendment should be on the table.

Cool. Was it Madman theory when he claimed to stop a war between two countries that haven't been at war or when he claimed to stop a war that ended before he took office? Was it Madman theory when he demanded unconditional surrender, thus creating a situation where if Iran survives the war, it wins and he loses? Was it Madman theory to threaten our allies so much they cut off assistance and got ready to fight the US? No, this is just incompetence.

So Mad Man theory is a ready mask for a leader who's actually inept, emotional, or simply ignorant and there's no real evidence of coordinated strategy here. I don't actually believe Madman theory is being applied or if he's trying, he's so bad at it that it's failing.

There's a historical piece of information, too, that's pretty important. Nixon was actually a believer in Madman theory. Nixon's chief of staff wrote that he had said it bluntly. He once wrote that Nixon told him, "I call it the Madman theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that for God's sake, you know, Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry and he has his hand on the nuclear button and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.”

How did that work out?

Another person believed to deploy Madman theory was Nikita Khrushchev. Things like the Berlin Wall and his behavior during the Cuban missile crisis are attributed to him using Madman theory. In the US history books, he got stomped by Kennedy's more even keeled foreign policy and Khrushchev definitely lost, but it actually wasn't as one-sided as people in the US believe. The Berlin Wall, well, I have a piece of it in my living room.

Other proponents of Madman theory or people who were believed to employ it are Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, and Vladimir Putin. Let's set aside the fact that all of them except Khrushchev were viewed as absolute villains in the West. That's irrelevant. Foreign policy isn't about morality. It's about power. Does Madman theory achieve it? Historically, it doesn't look like it works. Or maybe the guy I support is using a failed theory that weakens his country isn't really the great talking point you think it is. It's just something that sounds cool to the people who aren't well informed.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.