Let's talk about Trump's record low consumer sentiment.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's record low consumer sentiment.

The University of Michigan surveys of consumers was released. Trump's moves against Iran and the accompanying price surges shook the American consumer more than I think anybody expected. Consumer sentiment fell to a record low. And by record low, I mean that sentiment dropped about 11% early this month and fell to a reading of 47.6. To put that in context and give you a comparison, there really isn't one. This is the lowest reading post World War II.

Consumer sentiment is a loose leading indicator of consumer spending, which greatly impacts the GDP and overall economic health. Given the fact that fourth quarter GDP of last year was revised down to a meager 0.5%. This isn't a good sign.

The survey's director said that the decline in sentiment was felt by pretty much everybody. "Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks and sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month's fall."

This isn't a case of people opposed to the war overreacting. It's not a case of partisan wish casting. This was a result of the immediate effects of Trump's war.

But that's not the only problem in Trump's Golden Age. She went on, “one-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%. With consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values, buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened, again on the basis of high prices.”

Open-ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes in the economy. Sentiment is down. Expectations are down.

The surveys also look at expected inflation. "Year- ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025.” April, of course, was when Trump launched his Liberation Day tariffs that really only succeeded in liberating money from the pockets of the American working class.

Now, this is clearly tied to Trump's Iran war, which may or may not be coming to a close. Either way, the problem is that even if everything was resolved today, the mess in the Strait will take weeks, if not months, to straighten out. The economic impact won't just disappear when and if a peace agreement is actually reached. Most of the economic anxiety is fed by elevated gas prices. Like the saying goes, gas prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather.

Trump keeps saying that gas prices will come down soon, but his own energy information administration, that's part of the Department of Energy, said, "We forecast retail gasoline prices to peak at a monthly average of close to $4.30 per gallon in April and average more than $3.70. The average before Trump started this nonsense was less than three bucks.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.