Deal by No Deal! Markets to Reverse? May 9, ,2025

[Quixote1818]

Was just listening to a bit of this trader talk about Trump and the market. He seems to think Trump hyped up the UK deal way to much and it's pretty much a dud now that everyone has had a good look.

If it's still live go to the start of the video. He's pretty harsh with Trump's BS.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Well I watched the whole thing because I've never seen it before

He seems to be a right-winger who is negatively impressed by tRump, sees through his BS.

I've only begun again 9 months ago to get interested in markets again after decades of non-participation. I like to do basic chart reading, setting trend lines, trend channels, resistance, support. I haven't found moving averages to be much use and all the indicators even less. I don't have time for detailed analysis, so I'll let the Buffets do the fundamentals and make their plays and the techs do their thing and make their plays. Sooner or later it all shows up in the charts. If I can get 70% of years long up move from a breakout or up from a base I will be happy.

The waves he draws seem to be about what I would probably draw, but the predictions I don't get into, so his are interesting and he may have some insight but I don't think anyone does have much, least of all me.

It is interesting he suggests a fair chance of an early summer of drift and maybe go into late summer. The 90 day pause on a lot of tariffs is about July 9 from April 9. With all the uncertainty, drift is likely but if some hard data beyond port traffic starts kicking in along with not much real progress on "deals" or "deals" that are pittances like today's "deal", then the market could sour before we get to early July.

If the Fed cuts in June or July or both, and beyond, we could see some propping up. But personally I think downside risk is greater than upside potential so I'm all out of stocks. I'm in a preservation of capital mode.

Who knows. I don't.

[Quixote1818]

2. I'm mostly out too. I got mostly out in February knowing the tariff stuff was going to cause a pretty big drop.

It seems with Powell saying things are looking shaky, I don't want to be anywhere near the market right now. I'm just waiting for the rug pull any day now. It may rip a few more times until the recession data starts showing up and that will be it until it bottoms out and starts going back up at the end of the year anticipating the end of the recession. What's interesting is how gold is skyrocketing which makes me wonder if a lot of Governments and smart money see something really bad coming. I just don't know enough about any of this other than I am near retirement and dowt trust Trump and don't want to see half of my retirement up in smoke.