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NickB79
NickB79's Journal
NickB79's Journal
July 29, 2023
There's something odd about where China is building solar power
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/theres-something-odd-about-where-china-is-building-solar-power/While Chinas deployment of solar panels is highly impressive, its actual generation from these assets is much less so. China is apparently deploying scarce solar assets irrationally, installing substantial numbers of solar panels in several renewables-poor provinces while largely ignoring sun-soaked regions. Even worse, more than half of Chinas new solar installations are dedicated to distributed rooftop generation sites, which suffer from poor utilization factors compared with utility-scale solar from power plants.
While Chinas solar deployment has been extremely wasteful from an economic or environmental perspective, the shape of Beijings solar build may be influenced in part by security considerations. While rooftop solar increases an electricity grids attack surface and potential exposure to cyberattacks, it also disperses generation and generally increases system resilience, especially if microgrids are employed. Beijings solar strategy has evidently prioritized deployment of rooftop solar for government buildings and in provinces that hold key naval bases. If tensions over Taiwan, for example, increase or even break into open conflict, mainland Chinas distributed deployment of rooftop solar could reduce its overall vulnerability to cyberattacks or other disruptions, granting Beijings leadership greater flexibility.
While Chinas solar deployment has been extremely wasteful from an economic or environmental perspective, the shape of Beijings solar build may be influenced in part by security considerations. While rooftop solar increases an electricity grids attack surface and potential exposure to cyberattacks, it also disperses generation and generally increases system resilience, especially if microgrids are employed. Beijings solar strategy has evidently prioritized deployment of rooftop solar for government buildings and in provinces that hold key naval bases. If tensions over Taiwan, for example, increase or even break into open conflict, mainland Chinas distributed deployment of rooftop solar could reduce its overall vulnerability to cyberattacks or other disruptions, granting Beijings leadership greater flexibility.
July 29, 2023
Looks like we've really shit the bed for generations to come.
Removing carbon from Earth's atmosphere may not 'fix' climate change
https://www.space.com/carbon-removal-does-not-reverse-climate-change-effectsIn the study, Korean researchers simulated how removing large quantities of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the air might affect the progress of local climate changes related to global warming. The study, based on computer modeling, examined a hypothetical scenario, in which carbon dioxide concentrations continued to rise from present-day levels for 140 years, then were gradually reduced back to the initial levels over another 140-year period.
The researchers were particularly interested in how these changes would affect vulnerable subtropical regions, which are known to suffer from more intense and more frequent droughts as climate change progresses.
The study results suggest that the local climate in these areas would not return to normal for more than 200 years after the carbon dioxide concentrations drop. The Mediterranean region, for example, plagued by ever more severe heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, would continue to suffer and could become even drier, the study found.
The researchers were particularly interested in how these changes would affect vulnerable subtropical regions, which are known to suffer from more intense and more frequent droughts as climate change progresses.
The study results suggest that the local climate in these areas would not return to normal for more than 200 years after the carbon dioxide concentrations drop. The Mediterranean region, for example, plagued by ever more severe heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, would continue to suffer and could become even drier, the study found.
Looks like we've really shit the bed for generations to come.
July 29, 2023
Imagine all of India and China installing AC units to keep their residents safe from climate change. They're already doing so. If carried out fully, it would consume every watt of wind and solar output installed to date, and then some. And then coal and gas are tasked with picking up the slack, releasing more of the same emissions that required the AC in the first place. A vicious cycle indeed 😞
'Vicious cycle': Heat waves ramp up global burning of fossil fuels (record nat gas use)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/28/natural-gas-heat-waves-climate/Theres a big winner in the record heat waves baking the United States, China and other countries fossil fuels.
The United States is setting records for natural gas consumption this week at the power plants that keep the nations air conditioners humming, according to estimates from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In China, power plants are burning more coal to keep up with electricity needs, helping to feed a record-pace in demand this year for the worlds largest source of carbon dioxide, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.
That demand is feeding what the Paris energy watchdog calls a vicious cycle that further boosts world temperatures. As heat waves multiply and intensify, it creates more demand for fossil fuels, which add to the greenhouse-gas emissions that intensify extreme heat around the world.
The worlds power grids are still too reliant on gas and coal, complicating efforts by the Biden administration and other governments to phase down their use. Despite climate commitments, governments face immediate imperatives to prevent power blackouts and skyrocketing energy prices to cool buildings and protect people from life-threatening conditions.
The United States is setting records for natural gas consumption this week at the power plants that keep the nations air conditioners humming, according to estimates from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In China, power plants are burning more coal to keep up with electricity needs, helping to feed a record-pace in demand this year for the worlds largest source of carbon dioxide, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.
That demand is feeding what the Paris energy watchdog calls a vicious cycle that further boosts world temperatures. As heat waves multiply and intensify, it creates more demand for fossil fuels, which add to the greenhouse-gas emissions that intensify extreme heat around the world.
The worlds power grids are still too reliant on gas and coal, complicating efforts by the Biden administration and other governments to phase down their use. Despite climate commitments, governments face immediate imperatives to prevent power blackouts and skyrocketing energy prices to cool buildings and protect people from life-threatening conditions.
Imagine all of India and China installing AC units to keep their residents safe from climate change. They're already doing so. If carried out fully, it would consume every watt of wind and solar output installed to date, and then some. And then coal and gas are tasked with picking up the slack, releasing more of the same emissions that required the AC in the first place. A vicious cycle indeed 😞
July 21, 2023
CO2 concentrations at the time was actually less than they are today, to boot (280 ppm vs 425 now). And they're going up 2-3ppm per year.
Much of Greenland's ice could melt even if world doesn't get warmer (5-15' of sea rise)
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2383500-much-of-greenlands-ice-could-melt-even-if-world-doesnt-get-warmer/A sediment core from underneath the Greenland ice sheet has provided the first direct evidence that much of the ice disappeared during an interglacial period 400,000 years ago, when global temperatures were similar to what they are today.
The findings show that even if the planet doesnt get any warmer than it is now, ice loss from Greenland alone would add at least 1.5 metres to the global average sea level and possibly as much as 5 metres. This is in line with existing projections, but the study provides direct evidence to back them up.
Its a pretty sobering warning that we not only have to stop putting carbon in the atmosphere, weve got to start taking it out if we hope to save Greenlands ice, says Paul Bierman at the University of Vermont.
The findings show that even if the planet doesnt get any warmer than it is now, ice loss from Greenland alone would add at least 1.5 metres to the global average sea level and possibly as much as 5 metres. This is in line with existing projections, but the study provides direct evidence to back them up.
Its a pretty sobering warning that we not only have to stop putting carbon in the atmosphere, weve got to start taking it out if we hope to save Greenlands ice, says Paul Bierman at the University of Vermont.
CO2 concentrations at the time was actually less than they are today, to boot (280 ppm vs 425 now). And they're going up 2-3ppm per year.
July 14, 2023
This is really bad, as we've invested heavily in the use of natural gas to back up solar and wind. Most studies I've seen put leakage rates around 2%, or 10X the cutoff point found in this study, and many suspect those are still undercounts. And the piece I find most interesting is that they took into consideration the solar dimming effect of burning coal, wherein the sulfur emissions from coal smoke actually offset some of the heating by reflecting incoming solar radiation. I haven't seen any other studies incorporate this before.
I've actually been worrying lately that the massive heat spikes we've seen this year are in part because, as coal plants have been shut down and the remaining ones cleaned up, the atmosphere has lost enough sulfur to let the greenhouse gases, especially methane, really show their true warming potential. This concerns me greatly.
Without backups provided by natural gas, the only other real option we have to keep the grid stable and not cook the atmosphere is to construct nuclear reactors. Likely hundreds of them globally, especially the smaller, next-generation modular reactors currently being trialed out by several companies now. That, or accept a global de-growth strategy that means those of us in the developed nations accept a serious cut in our standard of living.
Leaks Can Make Natural Gas as Bad for the Climate as Coal, a Study Says
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/climate/natural-gas-leaks-coal-climate-change.htmlNatural gas, long seen as a cleaner alternative to coal and an important tool in the fight to slow global warming, can be just as harmful to the climate, a new study has concluded, unless companies can all but eliminate the leaks that plague its use.
It takes as little as 0.2 percent of gas to leak to make natural gas as big a driver of climate change as coal, the study found. Thats a tiny margin of error for a gas that is notorious for leaking from drill sites, processing plants and the pipes that transport it into power stations or homes and kitchens.
The bottom line: If gas leaks, even a little, its as bad as coal, said Deborah Gordon, the lead researcher and an environmental policy expert at Brown University and at the Rocky Mountain Institute, a nonprofit research organization focused on clean energy. It cant be considered a good bridge, or substitute.
The peer-reviewed study, which also involved researchers from Harvard and Duke Universities and NASA and is set to be published next week in the journal Environmental Research Letters, adds to a substantial body of research that has poked holes in the idea that natural gas is a suitable transitional fuel to a future powered entirely by renewables, like solar and wind.
It takes as little as 0.2 percent of gas to leak to make natural gas as big a driver of climate change as coal, the study found. Thats a tiny margin of error for a gas that is notorious for leaking from drill sites, processing plants and the pipes that transport it into power stations or homes and kitchens.
The bottom line: If gas leaks, even a little, its as bad as coal, said Deborah Gordon, the lead researcher and an environmental policy expert at Brown University and at the Rocky Mountain Institute, a nonprofit research organization focused on clean energy. It cant be considered a good bridge, or substitute.
The peer-reviewed study, which also involved researchers from Harvard and Duke Universities and NASA and is set to be published next week in the journal Environmental Research Letters, adds to a substantial body of research that has poked holes in the idea that natural gas is a suitable transitional fuel to a future powered entirely by renewables, like solar and wind.
This is really bad, as we've invested heavily in the use of natural gas to back up solar and wind. Most studies I've seen put leakage rates around 2%, or 10X the cutoff point found in this study, and many suspect those are still undercounts. And the piece I find most interesting is that they took into consideration the solar dimming effect of burning coal, wherein the sulfur emissions from coal smoke actually offset some of the heating by reflecting incoming solar radiation. I haven't seen any other studies incorporate this before.
I've actually been worrying lately that the massive heat spikes we've seen this year are in part because, as coal plants have been shut down and the remaining ones cleaned up, the atmosphere has lost enough sulfur to let the greenhouse gases, especially methane, really show their true warming potential. This concerns me greatly.
Without backups provided by natural gas, the only other real option we have to keep the grid stable and not cook the atmosphere is to construct nuclear reactors. Likely hundreds of them globally, especially the smaller, next-generation modular reactors currently being trialed out by several companies now. That, or accept a global de-growth strategy that means those of us in the developed nations accept a serious cut in our standard of living.
July 14, 2023
Texas solar and wind are going to double by 2035, but if the states grid isnt upgraded, then all that power is going to go to waste, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIAs analysis released this month, A Case Study of Transmission Limits on Renewables Growth in Texas, found that if Texas doesnt expand ERCOTs electrical transmission network, congestion and curtailments are going to rise. (ERCOT, or the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, operates the states electrical grid.)
The study states that the curtailments are due to both inadequate transmission capacity and surplus generation during high availability periods of variable renewable generation. So, the grid operators need to find a balance between electricity supply and demand to achieve reliability.
Adding wind and solar is ineffective without a concurrent increase in high-voltage power lines spanning multiple states. And the problem isn't just a Texas one either; they're just hitting it first on a major scale. All states are lagging in their grid interconnections right now. A city next to mine here in Minnesota has stopped permitting rooftop solar thanks to insufficient grid space.
Nobody wants new transmission lines run through their property.
Texas solar and wind are setting records, and the state's grid can't handle it
https://electrek.co/2023/07/13/texas-solar-wind-grid/Texas solar and wind are going to double by 2035, but if the states grid isnt upgraded, then all that power is going to go to waste, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIAs analysis released this month, A Case Study of Transmission Limits on Renewables Growth in Texas, found that if Texas doesnt expand ERCOTs electrical transmission network, congestion and curtailments are going to rise. (ERCOT, or the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, operates the states electrical grid.)
The study states that the curtailments are due to both inadequate transmission capacity and surplus generation during high availability periods of variable renewable generation. So, the grid operators need to find a balance between electricity supply and demand to achieve reliability.
Adding wind and solar is ineffective without a concurrent increase in high-voltage power lines spanning multiple states. And the problem isn't just a Texas one either; they're just hitting it first on a major scale. All states are lagging in their grid interconnections right now. A city next to mine here in Minnesota has stopped permitting rooftop solar thanks to insufficient grid space.
Nobody wants new transmission lines run through their property.
July 13, 2023
Burning coal like crazy to beat the climate-change-induced heatwave 🤦
The increase in consumer AC appears to be offsetting a large portion of the gains in renewables to date.
China's heat wave leads to record-breaking production of electricity
A major Chinese power generator says its electricity production has reached a record high as the country grapples with a punishing heat wave.
China Energy Investment Corporation, one of the worlds largest generators of coal-fired power, says the volume of electricity it produced on Monday had hit a daily record.
The state-owned company recorded total electricity generation of 4.09 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) on that day, an increase of 210 million kWh from the day before, according to a statement on Tuesday.
China Energy Investment Corporation, one of the worlds largest generators of coal-fired power, says the volume of electricity it produced on Monday had hit a daily record.
The state-owned company recorded total electricity generation of 4.09 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) on that day, an increase of 210 million kWh from the day before, according to a statement on Tuesday.
Burning coal like crazy to beat the climate-change-induced heatwave 🤦
The increase in consumer AC appears to be offsetting a large portion of the gains in renewables to date.
July 3, 2023
snip
It goes on to point out how desalination plants large enough to supply hydrogen generation facilities can cost upwards of $1 billion. And that's not including the wind and solar farms you would need to supply the electricity to run the desalination plants.
For years people have been saying that the wars of the 21st century would be fought over water, not oil. And now here we are, trying to figure out how to literally use water to replace oil as fuel.
Insight: Biden's green hydrogen plan hits climate obstacle: Water shortage
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/bidens-green-hydrogen-plan-hits-climate-obstacle-water-shortage-2023-07-03/Reuters interviewed six researchers who study hydrogen as green power and had exclusive access to an analysis by Rystad Energy consultancy that showed that the Biden administration's vision of low-carbon hydrogen may run into a challenge that is itself exacerbated by climate change: water scarcity.
snip
Nine of the 33 projects on the Department of Energy shortlist for the hydrogen hubs are in highly water-stressed regions, according to Rystad data.
Those locations include Southern California, Colorado, Kansas and New Mexico as well as Texas. Globally, the picture is even worse, with more than 70% of proposed green hydrogen projects located in water-stressed regions like the Middle East.
"Most of the world's planned green hydrogen projects are to be located in water-stressed regions," said Minh Khoi Le, renewable energy analyst at Rystad, adding that this would create demand for more desalination plants.
Those locations include Southern California, Colorado, Kansas and New Mexico as well as Texas. Globally, the picture is even worse, with more than 70% of proposed green hydrogen projects located in water-stressed regions like the Middle East.
"Most of the world's planned green hydrogen projects are to be located in water-stressed regions," said Minh Khoi Le, renewable energy analyst at Rystad, adding that this would create demand for more desalination plants.
It goes on to point out how desalination plants large enough to supply hydrogen generation facilities can cost upwards of $1 billion. And that's not including the wind and solar farms you would need to supply the electricity to run the desalination plants.
For years people have been saying that the wars of the 21st century would be fought over water, not oil. And now here we are, trying to figure out how to literally use water to replace oil as fuel.
June 28, 2023
The title is wrong; it's farming that is a threat to the Ogallalla. The Great Plains won't be able to support more than cattle ranching in 50 years at this rate. I say we reseed it with native prairie grasses and forbs, and use what irrigation water we have left to get them well-established.
The Hidden Underground Lake in the Center of the U.S. Threatening Farming
https://www.newsweek.com/hidden-underground-lake-center-american-farming-1809530?amp=1In Chase County, the water levels have dropped by 100 feet since the 1950s, a report from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln found.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the Ogallala could be largely gone within the next century.
The Ogallala Aquifer fills naturally incredibly slowly. This means conservation efforts are ongoing to better protect the integral water source.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the Ogallala could be largely gone within the next century.
The Ogallala Aquifer fills naturally incredibly slowly. This means conservation efforts are ongoing to better protect the integral water source.
The title is wrong; it's farming that is a threat to the Ogallalla. The Great Plains won't be able to support more than cattle ranching in 50 years at this rate. I say we reseed it with native prairie grasses and forbs, and use what irrigation water we have left to get them well-established.
June 25, 2023
Hodson said Omnis intends to build a so-called quantum reformer next to the power plant. That facility would heat hydrocarbons at extremely high temperatures to produce synthetic graphite, and generate large quantities of hydrogen as a byproduct. In turn, the hydrogen would fuel Pleasants Power Station to produce electricity.
We think theres an opportunity to save the coal-fired plants by retrofitting them, Hodson said. We cant keep shutting power plants down and not expect the cost of power to go up. Were trying to preserve these plants wherever we can by producing two products.
West Virginia bets on hydrogen in gamble to save coal plant
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/25/west-virginia-hydrogen-coal-plant-00102047Hodson said Omnis intends to build a so-called quantum reformer next to the power plant. That facility would heat hydrocarbons at extremely high temperatures to produce synthetic graphite, and generate large quantities of hydrogen as a byproduct. In turn, the hydrogen would fuel Pleasants Power Station to produce electricity.
We think theres an opportunity to save the coal-fired plants by retrofitting them, Hodson said. We cant keep shutting power plants down and not expect the cost of power to go up. Were trying to preserve these plants wherever we can by producing two products.
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