June 26, 2021

Another analyical perspective, a bit more technical

Technically, you can word it so that both statistics consider populations (groups), but the point is that they are as different as fruits.

The probability of dying after a positive test is the same regardless of how many in the general population are vaccinated and regardless of whether being personally vaccinated or not. This is because if you have no protection and get infected, then the disease will take a statistically predictable course: about 1.8%, give or take a few. The percentage vaccinated will have a great effect on how many test positive in the future, but not on the rate of dying after testing positive.

The probability of incurring the event of being vaccinated and the event of dying, is about 0.8%, give or take a few.

The dead are a subset of the tested (almost completely these days).
The tested are a subset of the general population.

That's three sets, three populations, groups, collections.

The vaccinated (a fourth set) is a subset of the general population, but an intersecting set with the set of tested and intersecting with the set of dead.

The 1.8% is the ratio of a subset to its superset; those dead (subset) compared to those tested positive (superset).

The 0.8% is the ratio of a subset to its superset; those dead and those vaccinated (subset formed by an intersection) compared to those dead (superset).

That the 1.8% applies to two groups is strong evidence that they are effectively the same group. The two groups are A: tested positive and vaccinated and B: tested positive and not vaccinated. Both groups together perfectly comprise the larger group C: tested positive.

Very different measures, definitions, delineations of cases that form the 1.8% and 0.8% statistics.

June 26, 2021

Getting the apples and oranges right can be tricky at times

There are the population rates, and the rates among the tested, and the rates among outcomes.

The 0.8% figure I've seen is a rate among outcomes: the percentage of those who died who were vaccinated.

The 1.8%, give or take a few tenths, is usually a rate among the tested: the percentage of those people with positive tests. Of all the people vaccinated AND tested positive, about 1.8%, give or take, died. Like of all the people not vaxed AND tested positive about 1.8% died.

It makes sense because to test positive though vaccinated indicates an effectively total failure of that dose, either a slipup in manufacturing that vial or box of vials, or in the injecting or who knows what.

Further making the statistics murky is the vaccination status. One shot or two rarely makes it into the newsreader's precious seconds reporting the story.

Rates among tested and among outcomes are apples and oranges.

June 21, 2021

Clyde photographed screaming (maskless of course) to be saved from The Normal Tourist Visit.

June 19, 2021

Interesting thesis and may be the beginning of the end of tRumpism & maybe even RepubliQONism

We hope that Democratic Party members are taking note and driving the tRumpism wedge deeper, all the time shaving off the more rational elements of the burbs away from the RepubliQon party.

June 16, 2021

Good catch. Yes, running on poverty is like eating your seed corn. And another:

When you make people small (poor), you find that with small people you can't accomplish great things. Pay people the decent wages they are due and they will raise families that include engineers, nurses, teachers, and yes, even MBAs. Which will greatly benefit the employers' children and grandchildren.

Running economy on poverty is a short run win, long term loss.

June 16, 2021

The plan was, as discussed in RW circles beforehand, such as FreakRepublic for there

The plan was for there to be a violent clash between tRump's goon army and "Antifa" on Jan 6 so that tRump could invoke martial law and block or annul the election under the guise of preserving public safety and order.

"Antifa" wisely figured it out and stayed away. One of the greatest and best cases of "the dog that didn't bark" (not an exact analogy to the Sherlock Holmes story, of course).

June 13, 2021

The real world makers (Biden, Garland) don't talk much about what they are doing while doing it

tRump was a world-shaker, not maker. He was full of talk and tweets and bluster as he was rampaging around wrecking things.

Now Biden and Garland are repairing, quietly, steadily. Rebuilding better.

I think this is time for some patience. Everyone in the Biden administration have tons of work to do and we are all impatient because of the extremeness of tRump's corruption and ignorance.

Don't forget Garland and the Biden administration have the very important issue of voting rights on their desk too, which Garland has announced a big effort to deal with nationwide. It's a big nation.