March 31, 2023

I think he expected to lose the nomination 2016 and expected it to boost his brand

He was wrong on both points. His brand got a temporary boost with Saudi investors limited to during his presidency.

But once he won the nomination, he was in it to win, backed by the RepubliConning machine, Parscale, Manafort (and his connections) and sheeple.

Once he won the Electoral College, he was in it for the grift.

Now he is in it for escaping a lifetime of consequences.

March 25, 2023

Worth posting from time to time. Author of "Anti-Intellectualism in American Life": a key issue

Thanks for posting.

"Anti-Intellectualism in American Life": a key issue today in this increasingly technological and complex world. When human footprint on the neck of the planet is this heavy, stupid people in large numbers are dangerous as are stupid people in highest positions.

Not sure at all what to do.




Conservative websites for the conned and the Qonned are "plain sense" on meth, dressed up with the fraudulent analysis of "conservative thinkers", replete with glaring logical and factual errors and cherry picked references to credentialed quacks and crackpots.

March 23, 2023

Do not fret. Tomorrow will still be a good day even if there is no indictment today

Likewise, there will be beauty in the world Saturday even if there is no indictment Friday.

Further, though the first to break the ice will certainly be very noteworthy, Bragg's case is not the main event.

March 22, 2023

"This is what authoritarianism looks like". Modern McCarthyism

Tom Nichols
@RadioFreeTom
This is what authoritarianism looks like: We will use the power of the government to punish you if you indict our guy.

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1638366539186405377

replying to this tweet (picture of McCarthy):

NBC News
@NBCNews
As former President Trump anticipates being indicted, House Republicans are threatening federal funding for the Manhattan district attorney office.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1638365901920645121

March 18, 2023

Exactly. Garland knows details, knows the rump is guilty, but had to formalize it to distance it

This is my speculation, of course I don't read minds or remote view documents and computer screens in offices.

1) Smith took over long-running complex investigations. Fact.

2) Smith is no nonsense kinda guy. Fact.

3) Garland was pipped by (McConnell and) the rump who appointed three judges to Garland's rightful seat. Fact. Thus Garland is forced to add a layer between him and indictment. Garland must still decline to veto an indictment recommendation from Smith, but will simply rubber-stamp it, correctly. This will lower the temperature a little bit (not much) and we can all use the cumulative effect of many efforts to lower the temperature a little bit.

4) I'm sorry. All this manouevring is necessary for success and takes time.

March 10, 2023

Keeping Jan 6 living rent free in voters minds is not a win for Republicon Party.

It's a win for RepubliQon primary candidates.

The set of people who believe Jan 6 was just a protest and not an insurrection has hit its peak. History, and even short term history is not kind to masterminds, criminals, followers and dupes. Hmm, odd to think of the rump as a mastermind, but given the nature of his minions, he is in the running for the brightest of the bunch. As to his followers and dupes: those two groups are one and the same.

Time will not gain him any more of the above. And he will quickly lose many or most of the Republicons who have sold their souls for a little money and a little power, as they search for alternatives.

March 9, 2023

Wonderful cartoon dramatizes exact issue: where to draw line? 100 pc prevention is impossible

It is impossible to prevent all rail accidents for all time.

Which is why we have politics. Yes.

Politics is the mechanism for mediating this kind of line drawing. How much is the public benefit worth to the public as a whole? A lot, for sure, but not infinite.

But politics takes many forms. Robber Baron Capitalism is a very bad way of using politics. Hence regulations, etc.

Democracy is way more effective. But the Robber Barons get upset. And then they use their power to squelch democracy.

It's a problem.

It's a bigger problem when the stupid are exploited. As in, vote to cut regulations and taxes on the Robber Barons so they can put everyone at higher risk so they can get more baronial.

March 9, 2023

The AI revolution is over-rated and under-rated at the same time

Advancements like AI go in waves. The writer is surfing a wave of over-rating AI, but is helping wake people up about AI and the people need waking.

1) There have been waves of AI before. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter

2) AI is a very real human capability, by which I mean it is within our grasp. But it is not a thing which arrives or has not arrives. AI capability and AI deployment come in degrees, levels, etc.

3) Since about 2000, long term research threads began to bear fruit as artificial neural networks (ANNs or NNs) became more possible with advanced computing hardware and cheapness of generally available hardware.

4) In the 2000s, large "tech" companies (meaning web companies) began adopting and integrating NNs in massive ways. The emergence of Big Data. It was the business model of Google, Facebook, and the rest: your data. Their joint agreements mean they all share data since the ToAs of them all say that you consent to sharing of data with joint venture partners.

5) The advancements of AI currently are stunning. No question. That is a big part of why I say it is "under-rated".

6) The advancements of AI currently are flawed. That's why I say it is "over-rated". The article is a bit glib and too ready to predict a calamitous swift revolution. It will be swift enough to amaze us, but it will go in fits and starts.

7) Flaws are hard to root out. But they will be. It will take time. This is why I think that the AI industry will head into a bit of a winter before long.

More on this point: Sure, an AI can write a bit of code, like implementing known algorithms in toy applications. But to write a complete working 20,000 line program involves designing and writing code when the problem is not well defined and gets defined by writing working code that fails to satisfy users then modifying it in steps until it does.

If you can't define it precisely, then the AI can fake it, but not make it.

So what will happen is that there will be AIs that facilitate interaction with AIs. Software will be developed in conjunction with engineers and programmers, but their mode of interaction will be higher level than it is now.

Developing the software for those interactions will take time. Hence AI is over-rated. But AI will assist that development. All up and down the line AI will be accelerating those developments and at some point in the future it will seem like the "next wave" has suddenly arrived. Hence AI is under-rated.

This will happen across all the fields. AI integration will take time but will be amazing.

Take artwork for example. You can pick an artist known for a fairly consistent style and ask the AI to make a picture of something similar to their themes in their style, and the result will seem perfect at first look. But after a bit we notice flaws like a car poking through a window. This will all be ironed out, but it takes time.

The graphic artist of the future will do some "painting", but a lot of their work will be interacting with an AI. When they tell the AI "looks like a car poking through the window and that's nonsense", the AI will correct it and there will be back and forth.

So. Advancement was ever thus, in all spheres of human endeavor.

March 8, 2023

Keep posting, if it helps. As to internal dialogue,

... if you write about it (to us or to a diary), it might help. It might not be cathartic, but it might help. Catharsis can come in little bits and pieces if it is a stream, steady or otherwise.

Aside from treatments (medication, talk therapy), I don't know how that internal dialogue goes for you, but give this a try.

Stop fighting it. Not giving in, but going around.

Easy for me to say, difficult for anyone in your situation to do. What I suggest is that when life really gets you down, and something inside tells you something negative, say to yourself "Oh, you again. Yeah, life is tough." And then take you focus back to what you are doing. If you aren't doing something and aren't distracting yourself with something like video or games, etc., try writing.

Try writing about your feelings, not to wallow in them, but to acknowledge them and to really really enforce the idea that they are only feelings, however sincerely felt, and I do not doubt they are sincerely felt.

I think your sense of duty is a good anchor for you. Your duty to your wife is not only commendable, but healthy. You may feel duties to other causes. Don't let them rule you, but they can steady you. They are something you can focus on, not because you have to, but because you have chosen to.

As to anxiety, meditation is helpful, as has been measured by studies. You can even do meditation in daily activities. As you are cleaning up something, focus on the task. "Okay, got that bit, here's another, needs scrubbing, where's the scrubber, okay, gonna hafta rub hard, harder, got it, where's the water, ....". In classical meditation, people are often suggested to focus on their breath. Feel it come in, feel it held briefly, feel it exhaled, feel the brief pause, repeat cycles.

You can take a 30 second pause at times, and simply focus on five breath cycles, nothing else. A grounding pause.

When negatives or depressed thoughts come up as you are doing something, acknowledge them briefly, and then move your focus back. The thing is that if you try to fight negative thoughts, it makes them stronger. Go around them.

It doesn't hurt to from time to time remind yourself of your goodness and the goodness in the world. You are a good partner. The world still has much tremendous beauty. There are many good people helping others and themselves and nature. It is a truth, not glibness. Don't so much focus on the goodness, but keep it in your back pocket. Use it not to fight the bad wolf, but to balance yourself from time to time. "Yeah, it's bad now, but there is good, so I carry on."

It does get better. Accumulated age accumulates experience which generates bits of wisdom which help balance.

Feed the good wolf. Starve the bad one without pretending it is not there.

March 6, 2023

If he's the nominee, they'll be behind him 110 percent

And I think he will be, to the Republicans everlasting regret.

De Santis would be foolish to run in 2024. He is young enough and is sitting pretty for 2028 if he lets the rump self-immolate in Nov 2024. He has written a book and is on a speaking tour for the future, but also he's preparing now just in case something happens in the next 12 months (likely) and the rump withdraws (unlikely).

The rump will likely face a field of also-rans. Nobody mooted about (Haley declared, Pompeo, Pence, Cruz, etc) has enough of a base to overcome the rump. The more who get in the race fracture the rump's opposition. Hence I think he will be their nominee.

I think the rump will get fewer general election votes than he did in 2016 and not enough Electoral College votes to become 47th. Even if there is no indictment. I think the rump will be indicted in 2023 and there does not have to be a trial in 2024 for indictment to be a proverbial bombshell and for it to be a big drag on his campaign. It won't budge the 30% Rs who are "to the death" rump lickers, but it will sway some leaners to vote D or to stay home.

I expect the Grand Old Party to fracture. Alternatively there is also a high likelihood it would wither away as decent people (mostly decent) abandon it. But I think fracture is more likely. I think the rump will run in 2028 as a third party candidate, unless he is convicted, which I think has a high likelihood.