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Celerity
Celerity's Journal
Celerity's Journal
December 14, 2022
Ron DeSantis is beating the former president by double digits in pair of new surveys released this week.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/12/donald-trump-ron-desantis-2024-polls
https://archive.ph/Tr9hu
To put it mildly, the final weeks of 2022 have not gone swimmingly for Donald Trump. In early November, a large number of candidates he backed for office lost their election bids, leading Republicans to blame him for their poor showing in the midterms. Shortly thereafter, Rupert Murdoch’s conservative media empire declared him a has-been. Few people rushed to endorse him following the announcement he’ll be running for president again. His favorite child made it clear she wants nothing to do with his political aspirations. His family business was found guilty of a whopping 17 different crimes. Multiple news outlets reported that more classified documents were found in one of his storage facilities. Congressional Democrats finally got their hands on his tax returns. People on the inside have said they believe the special counsel appointed by the attorney general to oversee a pair of criminal investigations into Trump’s conduct was brought in as a “hit man” and is likely to indict him.
Yes, it’s been a pretty, pretty, pretty rough time for the ex-president of the United States, and the hits continued to come this week when a pair of new polls showed Ron DeSantis, his theoretical rival for the 2024 nomination, thrashing him at the ballot box.
One of those polls, conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University and released on Tuesday, put the Florida governor ahead of the former president by a massive 23 points. The other, released by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, gave DeSantis a slightly smaller but still quite large 14-point lead over Trump. While Trump does not appear to have commented on the results, one can assume they’ve gone over about as well as the time Donald Trump Jr. allegedly tried to wear a Yankees jersey to a Yankees game. Last month, Trump the Elder basically shat a brick over DeSantis’s ascendancy within the Republican Party, (and in doing so implied he committed a major crime). As one Trump insider put it in a message viewed by The Guardian, the ex-POTUS is “in trouble.”
Of course, DeSantis has not yet actually announced a presidential run in 2024, and while many signs indicate he will, the polls aren’t all in his favor. In a survey conducted by Morning Consult between December 9 and 11, Trump was ahead by 18 points. But that’s probably of little comfort to the guy who clearly knows, on some level, that the GOP wants to trade him in for a younger model.
snip
That Sound You Hear Is Trump Raging at the Mar-a-Lago Omelet Station Guy Over the New 2024 Polls
Ron DeSantis is beating the former president by double digits in pair of new surveys released this week.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/12/donald-trump-ron-desantis-2024-polls
https://archive.ph/Tr9hu
To put it mildly, the final weeks of 2022 have not gone swimmingly for Donald Trump. In early November, a large number of candidates he backed for office lost their election bids, leading Republicans to blame him for their poor showing in the midterms. Shortly thereafter, Rupert Murdoch’s conservative media empire declared him a has-been. Few people rushed to endorse him following the announcement he’ll be running for president again. His favorite child made it clear she wants nothing to do with his political aspirations. His family business was found guilty of a whopping 17 different crimes. Multiple news outlets reported that more classified documents were found in one of his storage facilities. Congressional Democrats finally got their hands on his tax returns. People on the inside have said they believe the special counsel appointed by the attorney general to oversee a pair of criminal investigations into Trump’s conduct was brought in as a “hit man” and is likely to indict him.
Yes, it’s been a pretty, pretty, pretty rough time for the ex-president of the United States, and the hits continued to come this week when a pair of new polls showed Ron DeSantis, his theoretical rival for the 2024 nomination, thrashing him at the ballot box.
One of those polls, conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University and released on Tuesday, put the Florida governor ahead of the former president by a massive 23 points. The other, released by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, gave DeSantis a slightly smaller but still quite large 14-point lead over Trump. While Trump does not appear to have commented on the results, one can assume they’ve gone over about as well as the time Donald Trump Jr. allegedly tried to wear a Yankees jersey to a Yankees game. Last month, Trump the Elder basically shat a brick over DeSantis’s ascendancy within the Republican Party, (and in doing so implied he committed a major crime). As one Trump insider put it in a message viewed by The Guardian, the ex-POTUS is “in trouble.”
Of course, DeSantis has not yet actually announced a presidential run in 2024, and while many signs indicate he will, the polls aren’t all in his favor. In a survey conducted by Morning Consult between December 9 and 11, Trump was ahead by 18 points. But that’s probably of little comfort to the guy who clearly knows, on some level, that the GOP wants to trade him in for a younger model.
snip
December 14, 2022
Halle Berry and Gina Prince-Bythewood discuss filmmaking and stepping into their roles as storytellers. After making her directorial debut with 'Bruised' just last year, Berry talks to 'The Woman King' director Prince-Bythewood about the importance of telling stories of female empowerment through the lens of their own experiences as Black women in film.
Halle Berry & Gina Prince-Bythewood Discuss Filmmaking and Storytelling
Halle Berry and Gina Prince-Bythewood discuss filmmaking and stepping into their roles as storytellers. After making her directorial debut with 'Bruised' just last year, Berry talks to 'The Woman King' director Prince-Bythewood about the importance of telling stories of female empowerment through the lens of their own experiences as Black women in film.
December 14, 2022
The Senate minority leader once again lamented the “candidate quality” the GOP put forth in 2022 — and, this time, took a direct shot at Donald Trump, whose standing in the party has waned.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/12/mitch-mcconnell-laments-gop-candidate-quality-2022-midterms
https://archive.ph/EPQud
While many of his colleagues were eagerly anticipating a Republican “tsunami” ahead of the 2022 midterms, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was warning against setting expectations too high: “Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,” he said in August, suggesting that wildly flawed nominees like Herschel Walker and Mehmet Oz could help Democrats retain control of the upper chamber. Rick Scott, the National Republican Senatorial Committee chair, bristled at the Kentucky senator’s assessment: “We have great candidates,” he told Politico at the time.
Now, in the wake of a midterm cycle that saw the Democrats expand their Senate majority and Donald Trump’s handpicked candidates mostly lose in key races, McConnell has a message for his party: I told you so. “Some of you may recall,” he told reporters Tuesday at his weekly news conference, “I never said there was a red wave.” Discussing the 2022 midterms, the minority leader once again expressed disappointment with the cast of wacky Trump loyalists his party put forth this cycle — and went even further in invoking the name of the man who helped saddle Republicans with them. “We ended up having a candidate quality test,” McConnell told reporters, citing winnable races in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Georgia that Republicans lost due in part to poor, Trump-backed candidates.
“Our ability to control the primary outcome was quite limited in ‘22 because the support of the former president proved to be very decisive in these primaries,” McConnell continued. “So my view was do the best you can with the cards you’re dealt. Now, hopefully, in the next cycle we’ll have quality candidates everywhere and a better outcome.”
McConnell’s unfavorable view of the MAGA losers his party ran in 2022 isn’t exactly a surprise, of course, but his remarks are notable for the more direct blame he’s assigning to Trump. Though the two men have seemingly long viewed one another with contempt, McConnell has been careful not to hit out at the former president — even after Trump suggested McConnell had a “death wish” and disparaged the senator’s wife, Elaine Chao, one of his own former Cabinet officials. But like others in the GOP, who had previously avoided confrontation with Trump in the interest of political gain, McConnell seems to be growing increasingly comfortable throwing jabs, as the former president’s standing wanes. “Anyone seeking the presidency who thinks that the Constitution could somehow be suspended or not followed, it seems to me, would have a very hard time being sworn in as president of the United States,” McConnell said last week after Trump called for the “termination” of the Constitution, echoing similar comments he made after Trump dined with Nazi-loving rapper Ye, also known as Kanye West, and noted white supremacist Nick Fuentes.
snip
Mitch McConnell to Republicans on Midterms: I Told You These Weirdos Would Lose
The Senate minority leader once again lamented the “candidate quality” the GOP put forth in 2022 — and, this time, took a direct shot at Donald Trump, whose standing in the party has waned.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/12/mitch-mcconnell-laments-gop-candidate-quality-2022-midterms
https://archive.ph/EPQud
While many of his colleagues were eagerly anticipating a Republican “tsunami” ahead of the 2022 midterms, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was warning against setting expectations too high: “Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,” he said in August, suggesting that wildly flawed nominees like Herschel Walker and Mehmet Oz could help Democrats retain control of the upper chamber. Rick Scott, the National Republican Senatorial Committee chair, bristled at the Kentucky senator’s assessment: “We have great candidates,” he told Politico at the time.
Now, in the wake of a midterm cycle that saw the Democrats expand their Senate majority and Donald Trump’s handpicked candidates mostly lose in key races, McConnell has a message for his party: I told you so. “Some of you may recall,” he told reporters Tuesday at his weekly news conference, “I never said there was a red wave.” Discussing the 2022 midterms, the minority leader once again expressed disappointment with the cast of wacky Trump loyalists his party put forth this cycle — and went even further in invoking the name of the man who helped saddle Republicans with them. “We ended up having a candidate quality test,” McConnell told reporters, citing winnable races in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Georgia that Republicans lost due in part to poor, Trump-backed candidates.
“Our ability to control the primary outcome was quite limited in ‘22 because the support of the former president proved to be very decisive in these primaries,” McConnell continued. “So my view was do the best you can with the cards you’re dealt. Now, hopefully, in the next cycle we’ll have quality candidates everywhere and a better outcome.”
McConnell’s unfavorable view of the MAGA losers his party ran in 2022 isn’t exactly a surprise, of course, but his remarks are notable for the more direct blame he’s assigning to Trump. Though the two men have seemingly long viewed one another with contempt, McConnell has been careful not to hit out at the former president — even after Trump suggested McConnell had a “death wish” and disparaged the senator’s wife, Elaine Chao, one of his own former Cabinet officials. But like others in the GOP, who had previously avoided confrontation with Trump in the interest of political gain, McConnell seems to be growing increasingly comfortable throwing jabs, as the former president’s standing wanes. “Anyone seeking the presidency who thinks that the Constitution could somehow be suspended or not followed, it seems to me, would have a very hard time being sworn in as president of the United States,” McConnell said last week after Trump called for the “termination” of the Constitution, echoing similar comments he made after Trump dined with Nazi-loving rapper Ye, also known as Kanye West, and noted white supremacist Nick Fuentes.
snip
December 14, 2022
Big-city mayor races and elections for prosecutor and sheriff—especially in Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia—will shape policing, punishment and jail conditions in 2023.
https://boltsmag.org/2023-criminal-justice-elections/
In 2022, voters largely defied expectations of a backlash against criminal justice reform. Progressives lost a figurehead as San Francisco recalled its district attorney but also added to the ranks of officials intent on reducing incarceration and abandoning the punitive status quo on criminal justice—from John Fetterman in Pennsylvania to Pam Price in California and Mary Moriarty in Minnesota. Now those debates will continue right into 2023, bringing in voters who didn’t get to weigh in this year.
Many states hold their local elections on odd-numbered years—a schedule that depresses turnout and that some places are fighting to change. That means that, if you’re interested in the shape of your criminal legal system, critical storylines are already taking shape: These local and state offices enjoy the brunt of the discretion to shape incarceration and policing. DAs and sheriffs, in particular, decide which cases to prosecute and with what severity, exercise nearly unfettered control over jail conditions, and choose how they partner with federal immigration enforcement.
There are nearly 500 elections for prosecutors and sheriffs scheduled for 2023, a Bolts analysis finds—and the first filing deadlines are coming up in just weeks. These elections are largely concentrated in Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, with just a few sprinkled in Florida, New Jersey, and Washington State. (The full list is available here.) Other local offices that shape criminal punishment and policing are also on the ballot next year, including three governorships, at least two supreme court justices in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and hundreds of state lawmakers, local judges, and mayors.
Local elections are often very late to take shape, so in most cases the field remains undefined. At this time, the likeliest elections to draw the stark contrasts we have seen in recent cycles—with candidates disagreeing on whether to intentionally aim to reduce incarceration, or what goes into advancing public safety—include prosecutor races in New York City and upstate New York, Pittsburgh and the Philly suburbs, and Northern Virginia, as well as mayoral races in Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver, and across Texas. Sheriff races across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia may draw some scrutiny to immigration and detention conditions.
Bolts will follow these races throughout the year. Today, I am kicking off our coverage by laying out six big questions that will define the cycle: .........
snip
What Off Year? Hundreds of Local Elections Will Define Criminal Justice Policy in 2023
Big-city mayor races and elections for prosecutor and sheriff—especially in Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia—will shape policing, punishment and jail conditions in 2023.
https://boltsmag.org/2023-criminal-justice-elections/
In 2022, voters largely defied expectations of a backlash against criminal justice reform. Progressives lost a figurehead as San Francisco recalled its district attorney but also added to the ranks of officials intent on reducing incarceration and abandoning the punitive status quo on criminal justice—from John Fetterman in Pennsylvania to Pam Price in California and Mary Moriarty in Minnesota. Now those debates will continue right into 2023, bringing in voters who didn’t get to weigh in this year.
Many states hold their local elections on odd-numbered years—a schedule that depresses turnout and that some places are fighting to change. That means that, if you’re interested in the shape of your criminal legal system, critical storylines are already taking shape: These local and state offices enjoy the brunt of the discretion to shape incarceration and policing. DAs and sheriffs, in particular, decide which cases to prosecute and with what severity, exercise nearly unfettered control over jail conditions, and choose how they partner with federal immigration enforcement.
There are nearly 500 elections for prosecutors and sheriffs scheduled for 2023, a Bolts analysis finds—and the first filing deadlines are coming up in just weeks. These elections are largely concentrated in Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, with just a few sprinkled in Florida, New Jersey, and Washington State. (The full list is available here.) Other local offices that shape criminal punishment and policing are also on the ballot next year, including three governorships, at least two supreme court justices in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and hundreds of state lawmakers, local judges, and mayors.
Local elections are often very late to take shape, so in most cases the field remains undefined. At this time, the likeliest elections to draw the stark contrasts we have seen in recent cycles—with candidates disagreeing on whether to intentionally aim to reduce incarceration, or what goes into advancing public safety—include prosecutor races in New York City and upstate New York, Pittsburgh and the Philly suburbs, and Northern Virginia, as well as mayoral races in Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver, and across Texas. Sheriff races across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia may draw some scrutiny to immigration and detention conditions.
Bolts will follow these races throughout the year. Today, I am kicking off our coverage by laying out six big questions that will define the cycle: .........
snip
December 14, 2022
Silvio “Bunga-Bunga” Berlusconi, who was recently lofted to power in the ruling Italian government, is back to his old misogynistic ways, it would seem.
When introducing a new coach for his Monza A.C. soccer squad, whom he described as “good, nice, kind, and able to stimulate our boys,” he added another incentive. “I added extra stimulation ... if you win against one of these great teams, I’ll send a bus full of whores to the locker room.”
The 86-year-old was thrice elected prime minister and twice charged for sex crimes, including abetting prostitution tied to an underage dancer. He is the leader of the Forza Italia party. It is unclear what his 32-year-old girlfriend thinks of his promise to his team.
https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1602960141988597760
Read it at ANSA
Silvio Berlusconi Promises 'Busload of Whores' if His Soccer Team Wins
https://www.thedailybeast.com/silvio-berlusconi-promises-busload-of-whores-if-his-soccer-team-winsSilvio “Bunga-Bunga” Berlusconi, who was recently lofted to power in the ruling Italian government, is back to his old misogynistic ways, it would seem.
When introducing a new coach for his Monza A.C. soccer squad, whom he described as “good, nice, kind, and able to stimulate our boys,” he added another incentive. “I added extra stimulation ... if you win against one of these great teams, I’ll send a bus full of whores to the locker room.”
The 86-year-old was thrice elected prime minister and twice charged for sex crimes, including abetting prostitution tied to an underage dancer. He is the leader of the Forza Italia party. It is unclear what his 32-year-old girlfriend thinks of his promise to his team.
https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1602960141988597760
Read it at ANSA
December 14, 2022
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/argentina-english-insult-world-cup-28727304
Argentina’s players sang a song which insults the English and makes reference to the Falklands War after beating Croatia to reach the World Cup final. Lionel Scaloni’s side picked up a comfortable 3-0 win over Croatia on Tuesday to book their place in Sunday’s final in Qatar. Lionel Messi ’s penalty and two goals from Manchester City striker Julian Alvarez ensured Argentina will play the winner of France vs Morocco’s semi-final this weekend.
After opening their campaign with a shock 2-1 defeat by Saudi Arabia, Argentina have now picked up five straight wins. They will play in their sixth World Cup final and will be aiming for their third trophy – and their first since Diego Maradona inspired them to the title in 1986.
The victory prompted joyous scenes inside the Lusail Stadium, with Messi and his teammates hugging each other and singing with their fans. Scaloni was caught on camera bursting into tears while embracing Messi, but their celebrations took a different tone once inside the dressing room.
Defender Nicolas Otamendi’s Instagram story showed how they celebrated reaching their first final since the heartbreak against Germany in 2014. The players and coaching staff are shown jumping up and down, swinging shirts around their heads while singing in unison a song which has been commonplace among supporters in Qatar. The song as, relayed by Marca, describes rivals Brazil as the "crumpled the five-time champions", says "f***ing English" and includes reference to the Malvinas.
snip
Argentina squad yell "f***ing English" insult during World Cup dressing room celebrations
Argentina beat Croatia 3-0 on Tuesday night to qualify for the final of the World Cup and their celebrations involved singing a controversial and offensive song in the dressing roomhttps://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/argentina-english-insult-world-cup-28727304
Argentina’s players sang a song which insults the English and makes reference to the Falklands War after beating Croatia to reach the World Cup final. Lionel Scaloni’s side picked up a comfortable 3-0 win over Croatia on Tuesday to book their place in Sunday’s final in Qatar. Lionel Messi ’s penalty and two goals from Manchester City striker Julian Alvarez ensured Argentina will play the winner of France vs Morocco’s semi-final this weekend.
After opening their campaign with a shock 2-1 defeat by Saudi Arabia, Argentina have now picked up five straight wins. They will play in their sixth World Cup final and will be aiming for their third trophy – and their first since Diego Maradona inspired them to the title in 1986.
The victory prompted joyous scenes inside the Lusail Stadium, with Messi and his teammates hugging each other and singing with their fans. Scaloni was caught on camera bursting into tears while embracing Messi, but their celebrations took a different tone once inside the dressing room.
Defender Nicolas Otamendi’s Instagram story showed how they celebrated reaching their first final since the heartbreak against Germany in 2014. The players and coaching staff are shown jumping up and down, swinging shirts around their heads while singing in unison a song which has been commonplace among supporters in Qatar. The song as, relayed by Marca, describes rivals Brazil as the "crumpled the five-time champions", says "f***ing English" and includes reference to the Malvinas.
snip
December 14, 2022
Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, is having a very rough week.
On Monday, he was arrested in the Bahamas after prosecutors from the U.S. Department of Justice indicted him on a variety of criminal charges. Yesterday morning, the department’s indictment was unsealed, revealing that Bankman-Fried, who often goes by the initials SBF, is being charged with eight different crimes, including wire fraud and conspiracy to defraud the United States. The Securities and Exchange Commission also filed a civil case against him. And then, yesterday evening, a judge in the Bahamas denied him bail, ruling that he must remain in jail while awaiting extradition proceedings.
The aspect of this story that I find most fascinating is the way that Bankman-Fried managed to embody a character that a lot of people seemed to be looking for: a lovable, virtuous, but still ultrasuccessful capitalist.
The book “The Confidence Game,” by Maria Konnikova, explores how trust is a crucial element of every successful fraud and Ponzi scheme. (Bankman-Fried has only been accused, not convicted, of fraud.) Fraudsters usually build trust, she shows, by identifying what their marks are yearning for and then promising to fill that vacuum.
Frauds, in other words, can be a kind of mirror for their marks’ desires, showing what they are so desperate to find that they will overlook obvious red flags to pursue it.
Bankman-Fried carefully branded himself as part of the “effective altruism” movement, and claimed that his large fortune was actually just a way to do more good in the world. In interviews, he often mentioned his upbringing by legal ethicist parents and his modest lifestyle. The message was not just that investing with him was almost akin to giving to charity, but also that his pure motives meant he was a trustworthy person to do business with.
Perhaps he genuinely held those beliefs. Perhaps they were just a cynical ploy to build trust. Either way, he seems to have tapped into people’s desire to obtain the financial benefits of capitalism without guilt about its social drawbacks. And investors were so eager to jump on that bandwagon that they missed what now seem to be fairly obvious warning signs. According to John Jay Ray III, FTX’s new chief executive, the company suffered from an “unprecedented failure” of corporate controls. And a number of people have sounded the alarm about the risks of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem: Charlie Warzel had an interesting interview in The Atlantic this week with the author of a prominent crypto-skeptic newsletter about the problems he had observed at FTX before its meltdown in November.
Bankman-Fried’s story is in some ways a microcosm of the broader promises and pitfalls of cryptocurrency. Last year, for instance, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador made Bitcoin a national currency, a move that he claimed would make the tiny Central American country a hub of financial innovation and bring banking services to the poor. But the price of Bitcoin then fell sharply, cratering the savings of citizens who had invested in it. Foreign investment has been slow to appear. And just as Bankman-Fried’s altruistic persona hid a darker truth about his financial dealings, Bukele’s image as a modernizer has helped to distract from his authoritarian crackdown on civil liberties.
If you want to understand more about the specifics of the FTX scandal, you can start with the work of my Times colleague David Yaffe-Bellany, who has been covering the story closely. And Andrew Ross Sorkin interviewed Bankman-Fried via a video link live onstage at the DealBook summit two weeks ago.
But my personal favorite resource on this is Matt Levine’s “Money Stuff” newsletter for Bloomberg Opinion, because it is also often very funny. I particularly recommend the Nov. 14 edition, in which he walked through the mysteries of FTX’s leaked “balance sheet,” a vaguely labeled spreadsheet that included a mysterious entry described only as “Hidden, poorly internally labeled ‘fiat@’ account”:
So it would appear.
What I'm reading: SBF edition: Understanding the FTX scandal
this is an email only newsletter, there are no links to itSam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, is having a very rough week.
On Monday, he was arrested in the Bahamas after prosecutors from the U.S. Department of Justice indicted him on a variety of criminal charges. Yesterday morning, the department’s indictment was unsealed, revealing that Bankman-Fried, who often goes by the initials SBF, is being charged with eight different crimes, including wire fraud and conspiracy to defraud the United States. The Securities and Exchange Commission also filed a civil case against him. And then, yesterday evening, a judge in the Bahamas denied him bail, ruling that he must remain in jail while awaiting extradition proceedings.
The aspect of this story that I find most fascinating is the way that Bankman-Fried managed to embody a character that a lot of people seemed to be looking for: a lovable, virtuous, but still ultrasuccessful capitalist.
The book “The Confidence Game,” by Maria Konnikova, explores how trust is a crucial element of every successful fraud and Ponzi scheme. (Bankman-Fried has only been accused, not convicted, of fraud.) Fraudsters usually build trust, she shows, by identifying what their marks are yearning for and then promising to fill that vacuum.
Frauds, in other words, can be a kind of mirror for their marks’ desires, showing what they are so desperate to find that they will overlook obvious red flags to pursue it.
Bankman-Fried carefully branded himself as part of the “effective altruism” movement, and claimed that his large fortune was actually just a way to do more good in the world. In interviews, he often mentioned his upbringing by legal ethicist parents and his modest lifestyle. The message was not just that investing with him was almost akin to giving to charity, but also that his pure motives meant he was a trustworthy person to do business with.
Perhaps he genuinely held those beliefs. Perhaps they were just a cynical ploy to build trust. Either way, he seems to have tapped into people’s desire to obtain the financial benefits of capitalism without guilt about its social drawbacks. And investors were so eager to jump on that bandwagon that they missed what now seem to be fairly obvious warning signs. According to John Jay Ray III, FTX’s new chief executive, the company suffered from an “unprecedented failure” of corporate controls. And a number of people have sounded the alarm about the risks of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem: Charlie Warzel had an interesting interview in The Atlantic this week with the author of a prominent crypto-skeptic newsletter about the problems he had observed at FTX before its meltdown in November.
Bankman-Fried’s story is in some ways a microcosm of the broader promises and pitfalls of cryptocurrency. Last year, for instance, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador made Bitcoin a national currency, a move that he claimed would make the tiny Central American country a hub of financial innovation and bring banking services to the poor. But the price of Bitcoin then fell sharply, cratering the savings of citizens who had invested in it. Foreign investment has been slow to appear. And just as Bankman-Fried’s altruistic persona hid a darker truth about his financial dealings, Bukele’s image as a modernizer has helped to distract from his authoritarian crackdown on civil liberties.
If you want to understand more about the specifics of the FTX scandal, you can start with the work of my Times colleague David Yaffe-Bellany, who has been covering the story closely. And Andrew Ross Sorkin interviewed Bankman-Fried via a video link live onstage at the DealBook summit two weeks ago.
But my personal favorite resource on this is Matt Levine’s “Money Stuff” newsletter for Bloomberg Opinion, because it is also often very funny. I particularly recommend the Nov. 14 edition, in which he walked through the mysteries of FTX’s leaked “balance sheet,” a vaguely labeled spreadsheet that included a mysterious entry described only as “Hidden, poorly internally labeled ‘fiat@’ account”:
“But then there is the “Hidden, poorly internally labeled ‘fiat@’ account,” with a balance of negative $8 billion. I don’t actually think that you’re supposed to subtract that number from net equity — though I do not know how this balance sheet is supposed to work! — but it doesn’t matter. If you try to calculate the equity of a balance sheet with an entry for HIDDEN POORLY INTERNALLY LABELED ACCOUNT, Microsoft Clippy will appear before you in the flesh, bloodshot and staggering, with a knife in his little paper-clip hand, saying “just what do you think you’re doing Dave?” You cannot apply ordinary arithmetic to numbers in a cell labeled “HIDDEN POORLY INTERNALLY LABELED ACCOUNT.” The result of adding or subtracting those numbers with ordinary numbers is not a number; it is prison.”
So it would appear.
December 14, 2022
https://thebanter.substack.com/p/elon-musk-used-bari-weiss-and-matt
https://archive.ph/IQUB9
It’s been a week and a half since former journalist Matt Taibbi dropped the first #TwitterFiles dump and it has continued to be one of the worst manufactured outrages I’ve ever seen. It’s not quite “Obama’s Tan Suit,” but it’s not far off, either. It’s the equivalent of walking into someone’s home, pointing at the couch and screaming that they have a couch. On the one hand, it’s been a lot of fun watching #TwitterFiles fizzle, particularly the part where Glenn Greenwald has been drowning in tears of frustration as real media almost completely ignores the entire project. Poor Glenn, he really wanted the Hunter Biden story to catch on this time after his abject failure in 2020 to get Trump reelected.
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1602398365832122369
On the other hand, getting the press to bite would have been a happy bonus but it was never the goal. The real point of this exercise in propaganda has always been to justify unleashing disinformation and to provide grist for the coming Republican sham investigations. In that, #TwitterFiles is doing exactly what it was designed to do.
Tempest in a tiny, damp, shredded teabag
I imagine almost no one who is not on Twitter or trapped inside the right-wing media bubble has any idea what #TwitterFiles is about. Ben has an excellent primer on the first dump here. Just as an aside, “dump” is the official Banter phrase for each #TwitterFiles release because each one is a bigger pile of horseshit than the last. We’re going to do a quick recap so you’re up to speed:
snip
Elon Musk used Bari Weiss and Matt Taibbi to destabilize America
Musk is setting the stage for disinformation to wreck the 2024 electionhttps://thebanter.substack.com/p/elon-musk-used-bari-weiss-and-matt
https://archive.ph/IQUB9
It’s been a week and a half since former journalist Matt Taibbi dropped the first #TwitterFiles dump and it has continued to be one of the worst manufactured outrages I’ve ever seen. It’s not quite “Obama’s Tan Suit,” but it’s not far off, either. It’s the equivalent of walking into someone’s home, pointing at the couch and screaming that they have a couch. On the one hand, it’s been a lot of fun watching #TwitterFiles fizzle, particularly the part where Glenn Greenwald has been drowning in tears of frustration as real media almost completely ignores the entire project. Poor Glenn, he really wanted the Hunter Biden story to catch on this time after his abject failure in 2020 to get Trump reelected.
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1602398365832122369
On the other hand, getting the press to bite would have been a happy bonus but it was never the goal. The real point of this exercise in propaganda has always been to justify unleashing disinformation and to provide grist for the coming Republican sham investigations. In that, #TwitterFiles is doing exactly what it was designed to do.
Tempest in a tiny, damp, shredded teabag
I imagine almost no one who is not on Twitter or trapped inside the right-wing media bubble has any idea what #TwitterFiles is about. Ben has an excellent primer on the first dump here. Just as an aside, “dump” is the official Banter phrase for each #TwitterFiles release because each one is a bigger pile of horseshit than the last. We’re going to do a quick recap so you’re up to speed:
#TwitterFiles 12/2 - The original dump. Former journalist Matt Taibbi went first with a much-hyped shocking inside look at how Twitter censored The Greatest Scandal Of The 21st Century™, i.e. Hunter Biden’s dick pics, errrrr… “laptop”. Hilariously, Taibbi stated unequivocally that no government coercion of any kind took place while still claiming the whole thing was an assault on the Fist Amendment. MAGAland momentarily flew into a pearl-clutching frenzy. The left started laughing and hasn’t stopped since. As of this writing, #TF1 has been retweeted 132,100 times. That’s going to be important shortly.
https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1598822959866683394
https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1598822959866683394
snip
December 14, 2022
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/us/politics/sinema-democrats-senate-2024.html
https://archive.ph/dDSrF
Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia sounded intrigued by Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to become an independent, though he said he had “no intention of doing anything right now.”
When Senator Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party last week, she didn’t just momentarily drive up antacid sales on Capitol Hill. She also raised the pressure on three especially vulnerable Democratic senators who are up for re-election in 2024, and are defending seats in states that have turned a shade of deep crimson since they were first elected to Congress.
The 2024 map is daunting for Senate Democrats, and it will take all the political dexterity and luck they can muster to keep their 51-ish-seat majority — and then some. Twenty-three of the 33 seats up for grabs are held by Democrats or left-leaning independents. That list includes Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, where Donald Trump won in 2020 by 16, 8 and 29 percentage points.
But daunting is not the same thing as impossible. Faced with steep odds in the past, Democrats have managed to find local causes to champion — remember Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin’s crusade against almond milk? — as they looked for ways to differentiate themselves from the national party. And their incumbents have proved doubters wrong in the past. “From 30,000 feet, it looks brutal, but as you get closer to the ground, I feel more optimistic about it,” said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at Third Way, a center-left think tank. “If it’s mainstream versus extreme, we have a great shot.”
For now, Democratic strategists are still poring over the results of the recent midterm elections, trying to gain a deeper understanding of what moved voters. One consensus viewpoint so far, at least among those I’ve spoken with: Democratic candidates earned just enough credit for trying to address inflation through moves like capping insulin prices to dull Republicans’ advantage on the economy. And they say that while abortion may not matter quite as much in the next election, the issue is not going away in 2024.
snip
related
The 2024 Dem seats that are in play or could be (some would take unlikely scenarios to put them in play, but I am being as expansive as possible):
the following 6 are not 'safe' seats
WV (especially if Justice runs, and Manchin may run for Governor if that happens)
MT (Tester is the only Dem who can win there, but MT is now so Red, love Tester, so hope he wins)
OH (Brown (close to my favourite Senator) is the only Dem who can win there, but OH is now so Red)
NV (especially if Sandoval runs)
AZ (could be all sorts of chaos due to Sinema, and if Ducey runs it will be even harder)
WI (most likely Dem win of these 6, Baldwin is a strong Senator, but WI just re-elected an open traitor and Russian stooge, so I hesitate to put this in the next category)
then we have the 4 substantially more likely Dem wins, but still not 100% locks, especially if non MAGAt Rethugs run
MI
MN
PA
VA
then we have 3 states where ONLY IF super popular Rethug Govs run, then there could be a remote chance of danger (VT is also dependent on Sanders retiring to make it not 100% a lock for us)
MD (only if Hogan runs)
MA (only if Baker runs)
VT (only if Sanders retires and only IF Phil Scott then runs)
then the least likely (scenario-wise) loss as there is no very popular Rethug Governor to potentially stir things up by running (like MD, MA, and VT have), and it is also dependent on a retirement to put it into play
ME (only if King retires is it in any sort of remote danger, which I so hope he does not)
and finally a wild card
NJ (Menendez is underwater and now is once again under another federal corruption investigation. IF he is indicted again and goes to trial again, and IF he still insists on running, we might have a problem, if he is cleared, we win this easily IMHO)
The Rethugs only have to defend 10 seats TOTAL, and all are in deep Red states, other than Florida (Scott) which is now becoming deep Red. I would not put much hope in flipping any of the 10 seats, maybe, maybe Scott, but that is a real stretch, despite the fact he is a RW monster bellend. Florida is a nightmare for us atm, and not just because both Rump and DeathSentence are there.
NYT: Sinema's Defection Gives Democrats More Heartburn Over the 2024 Senate Map
A potential mess in Arizona was an unwelcome surprise for Democrats while they were still savoring their victories in 2022.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/us/politics/sinema-democrats-senate-2024.html
https://archive.ph/dDSrF
Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia sounded intrigued by Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to become an independent, though he said he had “no intention of doing anything right now.”
When Senator Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party last week, she didn’t just momentarily drive up antacid sales on Capitol Hill. She also raised the pressure on three especially vulnerable Democratic senators who are up for re-election in 2024, and are defending seats in states that have turned a shade of deep crimson since they were first elected to Congress.
The 2024 map is daunting for Senate Democrats, and it will take all the political dexterity and luck they can muster to keep their 51-ish-seat majority — and then some. Twenty-three of the 33 seats up for grabs are held by Democrats or left-leaning independents. That list includes Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, where Donald Trump won in 2020 by 16, 8 and 29 percentage points.
But daunting is not the same thing as impossible. Faced with steep odds in the past, Democrats have managed to find local causes to champion — remember Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin’s crusade against almond milk? — as they looked for ways to differentiate themselves from the national party. And their incumbents have proved doubters wrong in the past. “From 30,000 feet, it looks brutal, but as you get closer to the ground, I feel more optimistic about it,” said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at Third Way, a center-left think tank. “If it’s mainstream versus extreme, we have a great shot.”
For now, Democratic strategists are still poring over the results of the recent midterm elections, trying to gain a deeper understanding of what moved voters. One consensus viewpoint so far, at least among those I’ve spoken with: Democratic candidates earned just enough credit for trying to address inflation through moves like capping insulin prices to dull Republicans’ advantage on the economy. And they say that while abortion may not matter quite as much in the next election, the issue is not going away in 2024.
snip
related
The 2024 Dem seats that are in play or could be (some would take unlikely scenarios to put them in play, but I am being as expansive as possible):
the following 6 are not 'safe' seats
WV (especially if Justice runs, and Manchin may run for Governor if that happens)
MT (Tester is the only Dem who can win there, but MT is now so Red, love Tester, so hope he wins)
OH (Brown (close to my favourite Senator) is the only Dem who can win there, but OH is now so Red)
NV (especially if Sandoval runs)
AZ (could be all sorts of chaos due to Sinema, and if Ducey runs it will be even harder)
WI (most likely Dem win of these 6, Baldwin is a strong Senator, but WI just re-elected an open traitor and Russian stooge, so I hesitate to put this in the next category)
then we have the 4 substantially more likely Dem wins, but still not 100% locks, especially if non MAGAt Rethugs run
MI
MN
PA
VA
then we have 3 states where ONLY IF super popular Rethug Govs run, then there could be a remote chance of danger (VT is also dependent on Sanders retiring to make it not 100% a lock for us)
MD (only if Hogan runs)
MA (only if Baker runs)
VT (only if Sanders retires and only IF Phil Scott then runs)
then the least likely (scenario-wise) loss as there is no very popular Rethug Governor to potentially stir things up by running (like MD, MA, and VT have), and it is also dependent on a retirement to put it into play
ME (only if King retires is it in any sort of remote danger, which I so hope he does not)
and finally a wild card
NJ (Menendez is underwater and now is once again under another federal corruption investigation. IF he is indicted again and goes to trial again, and IF he still insists on running, we might have a problem, if he is cleared, we win this easily IMHO)
The Rethugs only have to defend 10 seats TOTAL, and all are in deep Red states, other than Florida (Scott) which is now becoming deep Red. I would not put much hope in flipping any of the 10 seats, maybe, maybe Scott, but that is a real stretch, despite the fact he is a RW monster bellend. Florida is a nightmare for us atm, and not just because both Rump and DeathSentence are there.
December 14, 2022
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/climate/fusion-climate-change.html
https://archive.ph/fO8up
The news this week that scientists had achieved a breakthrough in fusion technology was hailed as a milestone on the path toward a future of nearly limitless, emissions-free power. But if you think that means the days of burning fossil fuels for electricity will soon be over, enabling the world to more easily meet the goal of limiting warming this century, you may end up being disappointed.
The breakthrough is a huge step toward a long-held dream, one that has captured the world’s collective imagination: The ability to mimic the way the sun generates the energy that sustains life on Earth, and to control that process for the good of humankind. The achievement, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, “will go down in the history books,” said Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm at a news conference Tuesday.
A remarkable achievement
As my colleague Ken Chang wrote, scientists working on a mammoth experiment at Livermore, in which lasers are used to fuse two forms of hydrogen into helium, reported that, for the first time, it had released more energy than the lasers put in. That’s a big deal. Scientists around the world have been trying to develop controllable fusion (as opposed to the out-of-control fusion of a hydrogen bomb) for the better part of a century. While there have been many advances, a fundamental stumbling block remained. Fusion requires so much power, with temperatures of millions of degrees needed for it to occur, that none of the experiments produced a net gain of energy.
That hurdle is now out of the way, at least for this kind of laser-instigated fusion. That makes it easier to envision a future of fusion power plants that would produce essentially no planet-warming carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases. They would also have advantages over current nuclear plants that split, rather than fuse, atoms, because the fuel needed for fusion is more readily available and the radioactive waste produced is far less dangerous and problematic.
snip
Can Fusion Solve the Climate Crisis?
Scientists made a huge breakthrough on the road to emissions-free power. Here’s what that means, and doesn’t mean.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/climate/fusion-climate-change.html
https://archive.ph/fO8up
The news this week that scientists had achieved a breakthrough in fusion technology was hailed as a milestone on the path toward a future of nearly limitless, emissions-free power. But if you think that means the days of burning fossil fuels for electricity will soon be over, enabling the world to more easily meet the goal of limiting warming this century, you may end up being disappointed.
The breakthrough is a huge step toward a long-held dream, one that has captured the world’s collective imagination: The ability to mimic the way the sun generates the energy that sustains life on Earth, and to control that process for the good of humankind. The achievement, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, “will go down in the history books,” said Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm at a news conference Tuesday.
A remarkable achievement
As my colleague Ken Chang wrote, scientists working on a mammoth experiment at Livermore, in which lasers are used to fuse two forms of hydrogen into helium, reported that, for the first time, it had released more energy than the lasers put in. That’s a big deal. Scientists around the world have been trying to develop controllable fusion (as opposed to the out-of-control fusion of a hydrogen bomb) for the better part of a century. While there have been many advances, a fundamental stumbling block remained. Fusion requires so much power, with temperatures of millions of degrees needed for it to occur, that none of the experiments produced a net gain of energy.
That hurdle is now out of the way, at least for this kind of laser-instigated fusion. That makes it easier to envision a future of fusion power plants that would produce essentially no planet-warming carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases. They would also have advantages over current nuclear plants that split, rather than fuse, atoms, because the fuel needed for fusion is more readily available and the radioactive waste produced is far less dangerous and problematic.
snip
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