Poll: Cruz up 9 in Texas Senate race

[Awsi Dooger]

25. Awesome candidate in the wrong state

Arizona is slowly turning while Georgia and especially Texas are overhyped. I will continue to emphasize that. Polls mean very little. If a state simply has too many self-identified conservatives then there is no margin for error in a federal race. Beto would have greater chance in a governors race, where more voters allow themselves to stray from their preferred party.

Texas has 44% self-identified conservatives and 3/4 of that block place themselves toward the extreme end of conservatism. That is too much for Beto to overcome.

Nate Silver wrote in early August that the fundamentals of this race indicate a 5-10 point edge for Cruz. I agree. It is sad to watch our most awesome candidate wasted in a state like that.

The only surprising and somewhat questionable aspect of this poll is the high 52-43 favorable rating for Cruz. I have not seen it in that range. Normally Cruz has an even split in terms of favorable/unfavorable. So maybe the 9 point margin is high. But I believe it is more real world than the recent 1 point poll, or anything trying to pretend this race is near toss up.

A Texas political site broke it down in terms of raw numbers about a week ago. Not a perfect comparison but it basically demonstrates that Beto needs to find several hundred thousand votes:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/odds-against-orourke-some-back-envelope-vote-counting-texas-senate-race