Crystal Ball: A first look at the Electoral College - 248 R, 244 D, 46 Toss-up

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Don't be a Happy Adjuster

The projections here regarding that felon vote have been bizarre to put it mildly. I'm trying to be as reserved as I can, but it is admittedly difficult. I saw people taking the entire 1.5 million and dumping it atop the Democratic number.

Meanwhile, as I emphasized last fall the felon vote does not change Florida at all. The betting line would not move a fraction of one percent. There have been studies indicating the vote leans slightly Republican. Others say it is in the toss up range and may lean slightly Democratic. But everyone agrees that turnout will be very low and the vote figures to be very close to split, either way.

The governor DeSantis is taking steps to delay matters anyway.

Here is one article looking at the situation from a mathematical perspective, followed by some sections from the article:

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida

"Ex-felons vote at low rates. And when they do, there is no strong partisan lean.

One thing that limits the electoral impact of restoring ex-felons’ voting rights is that they turn out at particularly low rates.

<snip>

The potential electoral impact of Florida’s ballot initiative is further limited by the fact that the ex-felons who do vote are not politically uniform. While black voters within this population overwhelmingly register with the Democratic Party (87 percent), nonblack voters within this population were more likely to register as Republicans (40 percent) than as a Democrats (34 percent). The fact that 26 percent of the remaining nonblack voters affiliate with neither party suggests that their votes may not reliably be cast for either party.

<snip>

Although people do not always vote consistent with their party of registration, we can approximate the electoral impact by assuming that they would. Specifically, we multiply the estimated disenfranchised population first by the turnout rate and then by the party registration rate for both black and nonblack individuals. Had all ex-felons been eligible to vote in Florida in 2016, we estimate that this would have generated about 102,000 additional votes for Democrats and about 54,000 additional votes for Republicans, with about an additional 40,000 votes that could be cast on behalf of either party."