2020 figures to be very tight. And we should be pleased with that, given the situational terrain. Normally an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term has a monumental advantage and is virtually unbeatable. Only the sustained lowlife nature of Donald Trump and his 40ish approval rating keeps this race from falling comfortably into the category of a typical incumbent hold.
Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin want to default blue but they are tight enough from an ideology perspective that we can't take them for granted or nominate the wrong person. All are in the range of 5-9% fewer liberals than conservatives. The national gap is 9% so you can see they are very much in the swing category and not solid blue as we preferred to believe before 2016.
North Carolina is not a swing state. I'll continue to argue that Obama winning North Carolina in 2008 was one of the worst things to happen in recent Democratic politics, and specifically regarding Hillary 2016. Instead of recognizing that North Carolina simply has too many conservatives -- 43% -- and will not fall our way in a balanced environment, Hillary's camp stupidly put resources into that state while ignoring states that should have been recognized as very tight and not a cinch, given the demographics and the ideology.
I realize many fine posters here put great effort into states like North Carolina and Georgia and Texas. I'm a math guy so I'll continue to point out those states simply have too many self-identified conservatives to vote Democratic right now. They are in the 42% (Georgia), 43% (North Carolina) and 44% (Texas) range. Effort level and subjective hope cannot overcome the sheer numbers. You have to get to 37% conservatives to have a chance in a 50/50 national race. None of those will be 37% in 2020. Beto as presidential nominee might be enough to take Texas with him, but I doubt it.
There was a post here the other day asserting 360+ electoral votes, especially if Kamala Harris is the nominee. I guess that type of thing feels good to believe but I hope that type of person doesn't do any actual speculating. 2024 sets up well for the Democrat regardless of who wins in 2020. Once a Republican won in 2016 we had to understand the situational difficulties of 2020.
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