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muriel_volestrangler

(104,366 posts)
19. A "false positive" is someone the test claims is positive, but is in reality negative
Mon May 4, 2020, 02:36 PM
May 2020
In medical testing, and more generally in binary classification, a false positive is an error in data reporting in which a test result improperly indicates presence of a condition, such as a disease (the result is positive), when in reality it is not present, while a false negative is an error in which a test result improperly indicates no presence of a condition (the result is negative), when in reality it is present.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_positives_and_false_negatives

Also, it looks like the Philadelphia population is just over 1.5 million*, so if we say 1.5 million have not yet had the virus, then 1 in 500 of that is 3,000, not 10,000, so:

Of those who have antibodies, the "100%" claim suggests that anyone with antibodies will correctly test positive with zero false negatives.

Of those who do not have antibodies then the "99.8%" claim suggests that 99.8% will correctly test negative, and that .2% will falsely test positive.

Which, in Philadelphia, would mean that 3,000 people would be told they are not at risk of infection, when they actually are. (assuming we've nailed down, per other news, that the risk of reinfection is very low)

That is not an error on the safe side outcome. It would suck to be one of those 3,000 people if they changed their behaviour and subsequently caught it.


*Unless you mean the larger Metropolitan Statistical Area of Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, which has about 6 million: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Fresno county practically has zero tests onecaliberal May 2020 #1
I wish we could mass test here. ismnotwasm May 2020 #2
I would think that Trump would want that info out, as it bolsters his case for re-opening Celerity May 2020 #3
That's 2000 people out of every million jberryhill May 2020 #4
10,000 false positives muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #6
Stated an odd way jberryhill May 2020 #10
A "false positive" is someone the test claims is positive, but is in reality negative muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #19
Yippee. Igel May 2020 #13
Are Antibodies the Way Back? The Research is Mixed frazzled May 2020 #5
+1,000+++++ CountAllVotes May 2020 #8
You see that word "is"? Igel May 2020 #16
Some understand limited things well. Igel May 2020 #14
The problem is most people don't get to choose which antibody test to use. They use the one which still_one May 2020 #7
I think the Roche test will soon become the gold standard and the most widely used Celerity May 2020 #9
Perhaps. Igel May 2020 #17
+1 CountAllVotes May 2020 #20
According to John Oliver and the scientist on his show, ZERO tests Greybnk48 May 2020 #11
He is now wrong, Roche Coronavirus Antibody Test Wins FDA Approval for Emergency Use Celerity May 2020 #12
"Approval for emergency use" is not the same as "approval"... Wounded Bear May 2020 #15
+1 CountAllVotes May 2020 #18
A good test is great Chainfire May 2020 #21
A great drug (or test) for a drug company Chainfire May 2020 #22
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