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NNadir

(36,193 posts)
62. If it costs $1 billion dollars to develop a drug - a common and reasonable figure - you need...
Sat Aug 8, 2020, 08:43 PM
Aug 2020

...to provide 100 million doses of it at $10/dose to recover your investment, but you need to add manufacturing costs - manufacturing done under very rigorous controlled conditions - just to break even.

That should be pretty clear.

If you can't sell a 100 million doses, you need to charge considerably more per dose. You need to recover all that money in five to seven years, before you lose your patent and generic companies can produce your drug for manufacturing costs only, paying much less for development than an innovator company. (They still need to do "bioequivalence" trials, but these are far cheaper than what is involved in innovation.)

Example If 10 million people have Covid and we can cure their disease for 2 pills a day for 10 days, that's 20 pills per person, 80 million doses, that would be $250 per cure - if we totally ignore all the people who failed to make the drug but spent close to a billion working on their failure - and ignore manufacturing costs, shipping costs, storage costs etc, and of course, without any reward for the people who took the scientific and financial risks of developing the drug.

I would reasonably expect a vaccine for this disease to be fairly expensive, but the cost would be spread over billions of people who would ideally take it. If it requires frequent boosters - and it may well do so - it will be a blockbuster drug, worth tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars.

What's worth more, Jeff Bezos making it possible for you to buy Christmas doilies on line, or rewarding someone for saving the lives that would be saved if we stopped Covid in its tracks; if we were able to cure infected people?

For curative agents, if it's $3000/cure, this would still be much cheaper than two weeks in an ICU on a respirator, wouldn't it?

The reality is that these things are very, very, very, very high tech. People don't whine about paying for their cell phones, their TV's, their meals in restaurants, their Tesla electric cars, but a drug that would save their lives is always "too expensive."

We live in a weird culture.

It turns out that because of certain incentives, people do develop "orphan" drugs for "orphan" diseases, but they are enormously expensive per dose. It comes down to a question of whether the insurance company will save money by treating you or by dealing with the consequences of hospitalizations, etc.

That's a cold fact.

By the way, in the last five years, the makers of 90% of prescriptions sold today - generic drug companies - show many examples of companies losing money hand over fist. That wasn't true ten years ago, but it is true now.

It's easy now to figure it out the whole deal though. It's a billion dollars to develop - rule of thumb, some drugs cost considerably more, others less - you then need to multiply the number of patients and the number of doses per patient and divide it into development plus manufacturing costs and bingo! You're there if the goal is no one makes (gasp) a profit.

Spark's drug does not cost $3000. It's more like a million dollars per treatment. What is the lifetime worth of a child who couldn't see being able to see?

I would like to have every blind child be able to see, but there is some realities between here and there that are not amenable to solution by finger wagging.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Not a one RainCaster Aug 2020 #1
Come on, there has to be at least one, but... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #5
they are legalized extortion Skittles Aug 2020 #2
It's all about the money isn't it? AmyStrange Aug 2020 #3
This!👆 SheltieLover Aug 2020 #4
Yep PatSeg Aug 2020 #14
Corporations. Newest Reality Aug 2020 #6
You're not doing a good job of convincing me otherwise, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #7
They can't be altruistic. Legally, if they are a corporation, they must do AJT Aug 2020 #8
Ok, finally something to make me think otherwise... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #9
Democrats had a filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes in the Senate for four months and 10 days betsuni Aug 2020 #11
Thank you, but... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #13
No Republicans voted for it, all Democrats and Independents. betsuni Aug 2020 #15
Thank you for you're elaboration, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #16
I'm sure you knew this already. betsuni Aug 2020 #43
Nope, I didn't know the details, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #45
thats not true SiliconValley_Dem Aug 2020 #48
Thanks for the added info, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #71
They are exactly what is expected from a capitalistic society. unitedwethrive Aug 2020 #10
Ok, this helps too, but... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #12
I have worked with the pharmaceutical industry for more than 3 decades. NNadir Aug 2020 #17
Talking down to my moral inferiors? AmyStrange Aug 2020 #18
Let's not pretend that your question wasn't loaded, OK? NNadir Aug 2020 #19
Believe what you want, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #20
Here's why you're perceptions are off... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #21
Were that the case, you'd be researching relevant and peer-reviewed sources. LanternWaste Aug 2020 #72
You're wrong AmyStrange Aug 2020 #74
You mean Shkreli? Pharma bro? moondust Aug 2020 #22
I heard it was because they can, but... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #23
I don't think ANY of them are altruistic Luciferous Aug 2020 #24
Come on, there must be at least one or two, or... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #26
they exist to turn a profit for their shareholders spanone Aug 2020 #25
That's what other people have said, but... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #27
Several of the scientists and their other employees... Buckeye_Democrat Aug 2020 #28
2,000 dollars!!! AmyStrange Aug 2020 #29
That was the cost nearly a decade ago. Buckeye_Democrat Aug 2020 #30
Wow! AmyStrange Aug 2020 #31
The FDA approval process is pretty long and costly sometimes. Buckeye_Democrat Aug 2020 #32
Wait a minute. Can't they write all that off... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #33
I always thought those costs were the burden of the companies... Buckeye_Democrat Aug 2020 #34
I don't know if I am right or not... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #35
Get some good rest! Buckeye_Democrat Aug 2020 #36
I'll try, and take care of yourself also... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #37
You too! Buckeye_Democrat Aug 2020 #38
Perhaps the scientists at Genentech, rather than be thought greedy, shouldn't have done... NNadir Aug 2020 #42
Thanks for the info, but... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #44
Let me understand this question... NNadir Aug 2020 #50
I DO understand that drug companies want to make money, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #54
"Let's say it costs $1,000,000..." NNadir Aug 2020 #55
Thank you, but... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #59
If it costs $1 billion dollars to develop a drug - a common and reasonable figure - you need... NNadir Aug 2020 #62
You make a good case, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #63
Google is your friend. Here's a list of 31 pharmaceutical companies in danger of bankruptcy in 2020 NNadir Aug 2020 #66
Hmm, If companies are losing money... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #70
Let's see. Should we characterize all of us by Rod Blagojevich and Dan Rostenkowski because... NNadir Aug 2020 #73
What the hell dude... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #75
It's Part Of SG&A In Most Cases ProfessorGAC Aug 2020 #53
I'm sure that you're right... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #58
The Cost To Make That One Pill... ProfessorGAC Aug 2020 #67
I agree, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #69
I'm glad things worked out, but... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #49
I don't understand the hostility. Buckeye_Democrat Aug 2020 #65
Check your in-box AmyStrange Aug 2020 #68
The more disease there is, the more they make. gulliver Aug 2020 #39
I can see that with drugs... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #57
With all due respect..... liberaltrucker Aug 2020 #40
No respect needed... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #46
No way RANDYWILDMAN Aug 2020 #41
I didn't know this... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #47
Oh brother. NurseJackie Aug 2020 #51
What's your opinion on the Master Bates discussion here? AmyStrange Aug 2020 #56
No way in hell! nt Raine Aug 2020 #52
I'll take that as an emphatic no, and... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #64
Is Bloomberg a legitimate source here? AmyStrange Aug 2020 #60
I'm having a problem finding the cost for FDA approval... AmyStrange Aug 2020 #61
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