Sen. Joe Manchin on ending the filibuster: 'Jesus Christ, what don't you understand about 'never'?'

[Celerity]

22. 'More Republican Senate seats are up in 2022 than Democratic ones.'

That is just the raw numbers, the actual 'in-play/at risk seats' are far closer (and possibly favour the Rethugs.)

Also, we are going into a 'first midterm for a Dem POTUS' election in 2022, and the last 2 (1994 and 2010) were utter disasters for us. In 2010 we lost a net 7 Senate seats and had a net loss of 63 House seats (versus where we were post 2008).

Before I continue, I do want to address another thing you said

The way to overcome Manchin's opposition to ending the Filibuster is to make his support for doing so unnecessary.

Even if we win 3 or 4 net seats, we are nowhere near 60, so filibusters will still work to crush us.


Back to the breakdown:

In order to neutralise both Manchin and Sinema (who is even more conservative than he is on some issues, but is very under the radar) we need a net +2 gain.

For us to win a net two gain we need to hold our 4 vulnerable seats (in order of threat, Warnock in GA, Cortez Masto in NV (especially if Gov. Sandoval runs), Hassan in NH (especially if Gov. Sununu runs), and Kelly in AZ, we dodged a bullet with Ducey refusing to run there) None of those will be easy at all, anyone claiming that they are locks for us is simply way out over their skis, especially as its the 1st midterms.

If we defend all our seats, we then need to win the two easiest open (PA and NC) seats.

The only other somewhat likely shot is beating that absolute piece of dogshit Ron Johnson in WI would allow us to lose one of the 4 and still have a 52-48 majority, but WI will be tough, the MAGAts are dug in like tics there and the KEY Milwaukee A-A vote is the hardest to turn out of most any major city, especially for off-POTUS-year elections.

FL is quite likely harder than WI (unless Trumpian shenanigans scupper Rubio) but is in the realm of possibility.

OH is a real stretch (only reason we have any hope is Portman retiring and Ryan running)

The rest (I have seen IN, IA, KY, KS, and MO talked up as real chances for us to flip, and I really disagree, those states are solid ruby Red now) are likely not happening, especially given our first midterms of our Dem POTUS record.


Bad potential wild card... VT

If Leahy retires (he is not in good heath atm, and is ageing out, he would be approaching (15 months away) 90 years old at the end of his next term if he runs again) and the very popular (he won by 41 points in 2020, 68% to 27%) Rethug Gov, Phil Scott runs, we may have a real dogfight on our hands.