Sen. Joe Manchin on ending the filibuster: 'Jesus Christ, what don't you understand about 'never'?'

[Tom Rinaldo]

29. "Even if we win 3 or 4 net seats, we are nowhere near 60..."

My point was that if we can net a two seat gain, so that Dems hold a 52 to 48 majority in the Senate (with VP Harris as backup) that might be a sufficient margin to enable Democrats to nuke the filibuster, even with Manchin and Sinma siding with Republicans. Doing so just takes a bare majority vote, after which we no longer would need 60 votes in order to prevail on Biden's agenda.

I don't disagree on your rundown regarding the 2022 races as matters stand now. Well done. I don't fully agree regarding IA and KS however. They are not likely pickups, true, but Iowa has been a purple state in the recent past, and Kansas has a stronger than usual block of relatively moderate/sane Republicans relative to most other Red States. So, when all is said and done, there are several non tortured paths open for Democrats to gain at least two Senate seats in 2022. Certainly is is plausible that we could do so.

Prior modern history regarding mid term elections does run against us as a whole when Democrats enter the midterms controlling most if not all of government. But politics as usual has undergone upheavals of major earthquake proportions in recent years. The past may no longer be prologue. I can not remember such significant high level defections from a major political party as the Never Trump movement, since George Wallace Democrats. And Democrats are dominating on the issues this year. If Biden can deliver, all bets may be off about typical mid term voter preferences.