Joe Manchin: I will not vote to eliminate or weaken the filibuster

[Celerity]

25. We will be incredibly lucky to gain 2 or 3 seats max in 2022. The numbers just are not there for

much more than that, and we have 4 pretty hard seats to defend ourselves (GA, NH, NV, and AZ). Even with the spate of retirements, the only Rethug seats in real danger are the two open seats (PA and NC) plus probably WI (regardless of what the traitor Ron Johnson does). Portman's retirement gives us a slightly better chance at picking up OH, but both that and FL are major, major reaches. Nothing else is in real play, unfortunately (although some people will likely go fantasyland again like they did with KY, SC, and TX in 2020). If Grassley retires, his grandson will likely cruise to victory, for instance. IA is almost at the point of becoming IN and MO, and in fact may well boot out our last Congressional member there, Axne, in 2022 (she hung on by a wee bit over 6000 votes, around 1.3%, in 2020, and is a huge target by the Rethugs to take out in 2022).

Lack of passing these multiple voting rights bills will make it all even harder. The House is likely gone (more likely than the Senate even) in 2022, barring some serious major systemic developments. First midterms for our sitting Dem POTUS's have not been kind at all to us. 1994 and 2010 (net 63 House seats and a net 7 Senates seats lost after the election day, compared to where we were January 21, 2009) were bloodbaths.