New independence vote looms as Scottish nationalists ahead in count

[stopdiggin]

1. probably not anytime real soon

is kind of the consensus message from both sides of the 'border.'

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/scotland-independence-snp.html

- snip - So what now? The S.N.P., perhaps with the Greens, would hope to secure an agreement from the British government on another referendum, but Mr. Johnson’s Conservative government in London has indicated that the answer to any request will be no.

If Mr. Johnson refuses to grant a fresh vote, and effectively vetoes Scottish self-determination, he would be transforming Britain from a voluntary association based on consent into a compulsory one “based on the force of law,” as Ciaran Martin, who was the constitution director for the British government during the first referendum, warned in a recent paper.

Ms. Sturgeon has ruled out a “wildcat” referendum, like the one held in Catalonia in 2017. Her preference is for a poll that lies beyond legal challenge in the British courts. But she seems to be confident that Mr. Johnson will ultimately buckle under the weight of democratic pressure. “Scotland’s future must, and will, be decided by the people of Scotland,” she wrote in April, and it would be “unsustainable,” she wrote, for the Conservative Party to indefinitely ignore Scottish demands.

- snip - Scots, then, want to decide for themselves. But it doesn’t follow that they want to secede from Britain overnight.

The electorate is coming out of two referendums in quick succession, in 2014 and 2016, and four years of Brexit negotiations. Support for independence was consistently above 50 percent during most of the pandemic, largely thanks to the contrast between Ms. Sturgeon’s able handling and the bungled response by the British government. But the success of the British vaccination program, coupled with a bitter political row between Ms. Sturgeon and her predecessor as leader of the S.N.P., Alex Salmond, has eliminated that lead.

- snip - A poll this month asked the Scottish electorate if and when they thought another independence referendum should be held. Excluding those who answered “don’t know,” 33 percent said within two years, 30 percent said never, and the rest answered either 5 or 10 years’ time. The majority might, at least for the moment, prefer a break from the negotiating and campaigning that has dominated Scottish and British politics for years. Ms. Sturgeon, a formidable politician, realizes that much of the S.N.P.’s popularity reflects its image as a competent manager of Scotland’s devolved institutions, and in the latter weeks of campaigning, she tempered her independence messaging.

The Scottish National Party will probably continue to 'message' independence -- for it's enduring popularity, demographic advantage and ability to provide votes at the polls. But actual structural movement toward that eventual goal is probably some years (and perhaps multiple years) off in both practical and political terms.

Edit: And, while Brexit -- even before the bungling -- was deeply unpopular with the Scots -- and provided some extra impetus toward the 'leave' sentiment -- it has also served as an object lesson to some as far as the downside involved in 'decoupling.' There are some really substantial drawbacks Scotland would face in a move away (structural, institutional, financial, taxation, trade ...) -- that would quite probably be even more severe and crippling than Brexit. In short -- while still heartfelt -- independence, following Brexit, begins to look more and more like an expensive and foolish ramble into the weeds.