The Lambda variant: is it more infectious, and can it escape vaccines? A virologist explains

[Celerity]

3. To answer your question from earlier today

They did not have the data yet, mainly do to the duration required to label someone as a true long hauler. Delta has simply not been in zones where these Western studies are done long enough to determine an accurate percentage. They were sceptical of the Indian data.

As for Lambda versus the variant tweaked mRNA-1273.351 vaccine that we are in the trial study for, they only have lab mock-ups (as opposed to wild virus studies), but they preliminarily think to should come in well over 90% efficacy, so that is a positive. It is crushing the South African (B.1.351 aka Beta) and the Brasilian (P.1 aka Gamma) variants. Over 96% efficacy so far.

As for the mRNA-1273.351 variant tweaked vaccine versus Delta, they are extremely optimistic, as even the original Moderna vax had much higher antibody titer counts versus Delta than most of the other variants. Beta (the SA variant) kicked the original Moderna's arse, which is which they based the tweaked version off it.

The relative reductions in neutralizing titers for the original mRNA-1273 Moderna vax (the one 99.999999% of people have had) were as follows:

Gamma: 3.2-fold reduction
Kappa: 3.3–3.4-fold
Eta: 4.2-fold
Beta: 7.3–8.4-fold
Delta: 2.1-fold

if you want a deep dive on that, here you go

Serum Neutralizing Activity of mRNA-1273 against SARS-CoV-2 Variants

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.449914v1.full

ABSTRACT

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants has led to growing concerns over increased transmissibility and the ability of some variants to partially escape immunity. Sera from participants immunized on a prime-boost schedule with the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine were tested for neutralizing activity against several SARS-CoV-2 variants, including variants of concern (VOCs) and variants of interest (VOIs), compared to neutralization of the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus (designated as D614G). Results showed minimal effects on neutralization titers against the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant (1.2-fold reduction compared with D614G); other VOCs such as B.1.351 (Beta, including B.1.351-v1, B.1.351-v2, and B.1.351-v3), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and P.1 (Gamma) showed decreased neutralization titers ranging from 2.1-fold to 8.4-fold reductions compared with D614G, although all remained susceptible to mRNA-1273–elicited serum neutralization.

INTRODUCTION

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to escalate in various parts of the world, several severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of interest (VOIs) and variants of concern (VOCs) have emerged, including in the United States (B.1.526; Iota), United Kingdom (B.1.1.7; Alpha), Brazil (P.1; Gamma), India (B.1.617.1, Kappa; B.1617.2, Delta), South Africa (B.1.351; Beta), Uganda (A.23.1), Nigeria (B.1.525; Eta), and Angola (A.VOI.V2).1 There is growing concern over these variants based on increased transmissibility and the ability of some variants to partially escape both natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Notably, the B.1.617.2 lineage was recently classified as a VOC by the World Health Organization due to evidence of an increased rate of transmission, reduced effectiveness of monoclonal antibody treatment, and reduced susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies.1

We previously reported that mRNA-1273, a lipid nanoparticle encapsulated mRNA-based vaccine encoding the spike glycoprotein of the SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan-Hu-1 isolate, induced high neutralizing antibody titers in phase 1 trial participants2 and was highly effective in preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19.3,4 Some VOCs or VOIs, including B.1.351 and P.1, reduced neutralizing antibody levels using a pseudovirus-based model.5 Importantly, however, all variants remained susceptible to mRNA-1273 vaccine–elicited serum neutralization.5 Here we provide an update on the neutralization activity of vaccine sera against several newly-emerged variants, including the Delta variant B.1.617.2.