Polling in America Is Still Broken. So Who Is Really Winning in Virginia?

[Celerity]

10. If McAuliffe pulls it out, it will be because of the early voting (going on for 6 weeks now)

If the only time to vote (other than real, legit absentees) was on this coming Tuesday, he would get beaten badly I fear.

Of course no one has a crystal ball, but the Youngkin campaign and rallies are across the board are very upbeat, a lot of attendance, and all are energised. McAuliffe's campaign is tense and nervous, the rallies have been flat, and have not the best attendance. Youngkin has localised the campaign, McAuliffe has nationalised it. This is all per multiple local experts.

I do not myself have enough of true feeling to call it, but I am in no way 💯% confident we win. I so hope we pull it out and actually significantly exceed expectations.

Virginia and Colorado going consistently blew the last decade plus or so have been two huge positive paradigm shifts for us. We cannot start to backtrack.

My main targets to perma blue are GA, AZ, PA, and NC.

I am very pessimistic about FL, and all the Midwest, save for IL, MI, and (this state really worries me) MN. IA is now basically gone, same as IN and MO turned ages ago. WI is getting there, and then MN looms. I do not count PA as pure Midwest. It's a hybrid, like MD.

TX is still fantasyland. So many do no not understand the change taking place in the Latinx community (and not just in Texas at all) with fundie born again churches exploding inside them, and pumping out newly minted RWers. I fear a larger and larger chunk will vote Rethug.