The Democrats' Nevada Problem

[Celerity]

Combining the Democrats’ Hispanic Voter and Working Class Voter Problems

https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-nevada-problem?s=r

What do you get when you combine the Democrats’ Hispanic voter problem with the Democrats’ working class voter problem? Something like the Democrats’ Nevada problem. On one level, it might seem odd that there should be a Democratic Nevada problem. Nevada is the most rapidly-diversifying state in the country—it recently became majority-minority—and should continue to be so in the future. All else equal, that should favor the Democrats and it is true that Democrats have carried the state in the last four Presidential election and currently hold the governorship and both US Senate seats.

But hidden in these facts are some troubling signs. Despite rapid diversification, the Democratic margin in Presidential elections from 2008 to 2016 declined sharply from 12.5 to 2.4 points. And in 2020, as the Democrats gained ground in the country as a whole, the Democratic margin in Nevada went from 2.4 points…..to 2.4 points. That means that—again, despite rapid diversification of the electorate—Nevada went from three-tenths of percentage more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2016 to 2 points more Republican in 2020.

Hmm. Now how did that happen? Start with Nevada’s Hispanic voters, 16 percent of 2020’s voting electorate. According to unpublished States of Change data, the Democratic margin among Hispanics contracted by 8 points between 2016 and 2020 (Catalist data show an even larger 17 point decline). This drop was driven almost entirely by working class Hispanics (81 percent of Nevada’s Hispanic voters). These shifts meant that Hispanics’ contribution to the Democratic margin in Nevada in 2020 actually went down by 2 points.

There was a similar story with black voters, 9 percent of the Nevada electorate, whose Democratic margin dropped by 13 points, again driven almost entirely by working class blacks (77 percent of black voters). On the other side of the ledger, Democrats did better among white college-educated voters and among Asian/other race voters, particularly the college-educated. The net result was the 2020 stasis in Democratic support, despite underlying trends that should have produced a bluer Nevada.

snip


Latest poll (3/21-24, and it is from a Democratic pollster) has Cortez Masto down 7 points to Laxalt



https://blueprintpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/BPP-NV-Survey-2.pdf