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Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

3. Yup. I don't know why people assume undecideds break for the challenger. '04 proved this wrong...

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:05 AM

Nov 2012

Bush won roughly 67% of undecided voters in '04 and Kerry only around 34% of the undecideds. If the idea that undecideds break for the challenger been true in '04, the popular vote would've been a true toss-up ... with Kerry receiving 49.2 of the vote to Bush's 49.8, instead of what we got - 50.7 for Bush and 47.4 for Kerry.

That probably would've been enough to win Ohio, Iowa and maybe New Mexico, giving Kerry a 283 vote electoral college victory ... even if he barely lost the popular vote.

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re: The idea of Undecideds breaking for the Challenger [View all] cthulu2016 Nov 2012 OP

Good info. n/t TDale313 Nov 2012 #1

Some people are saying that undecideds are those who decide based on who they think will win. patrice Nov 2012 #2

In presidential races that may well be true. cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #4

It's called the bandwagon effect and it is real. Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #5

Yup. I don't know why people assume undecideds break for the challenger. '04 proved this wrong... Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #3

Dick Morris has always said undecideds break for the challenger naviman Nov 2012 #6

Unusual circumstances in this election that help Obama with undecideds: Democratopia Nov 2012 #7