re: The idea of Undecideds breaking for the Challenger

[Drunken Irishman]

5. It's called the bandwagon effect and it is real.

A lot of people who've yet to make up their mind just very well could vote for the candidate they think will win because, you know, why not? I think if they're truly undecided, they're not terribly for, or against, either candidate. So, voting for the winner could give them some self satisfaction.

In the 1992 election, a survey took a collection of undecideds, broke them up into two groups and asked them who they were leaning toward. The first group was not informed on who was likely to win the election (how they didn't know this is beyond me ... but in '92, there was less access to instant news, so...) and most said they probably would vote for Bush (this also debunks the idea that the challengers pick up most undecideds). In the second group, they were all informed Clinton was likely to win ... and in that group, they overwhelmingly said they would probably vote Clinton.

It's why Romney was selling this idea of momentum the last few weeks because there needs to be the illusion a candidate is winning for that very reason.