Your midterm predictions

[Amishman]

7. House is gone, Senate hinges on PA.

To keep the House at this point would mean a major systematic error in turnout and electorate modeling at the national level. I don't see that in the cards given the economic headwinds.

The Senate control at this point is decided by PA. I give us a two in three chance of Fetterman winning. I thought he had it in the bag before that debate debacle. PA is a blue/purple state that is drifting a little more red, but I don't think we're there yet. Oz is a poor candidate and Mastriano is going to drag on him slightly.

I expect we lose one of two between NV and GA. Both are tossups. GA is a red state recently gone purple, and I can see them repeating VA 2021 and regressing to their mean given an unfavorable overall political climate. Also Keep leading soundly will boost Walker a little in the same way Mastriano hurts Oz. NV is just crazy close based on polling and is a hard to nail down swing state.

I don't see any other seats really being likely to flip either direction.