A mathematical irony [View all]
Nate Silver gave odds on all the states. Obama won every state where his odds were more than 50% and lost the rest.
Nate Silver went 50 for 50. (51 for 51 with DC)
Here's the irony... that result suggests that his odds were way off. 85% states probably should have should have been 97% states.
Using Nate Silver's odds, what were the odds of Obama winning all the swing states (other than NC)?
About 18%.
Using Nate Silver's odds, what was the chance of going 51 for 51? I don't have the time to calculate them, but it is a small number.
For there to be no upsets, Nate's state odds in probably disfavored Obama significantly.
(All of Romeny's states were 99%, 100%, so it is expected that Obama didn't win a Romney state.)
I am sure Nate will ponder this. It's a fun puzzle.
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