Realistically, the election is probably gonna be decided by about 250,000 voters

[BWdem4life]

(less than a tenth of a percent of the population). Sad, but probably true.

If Biden can hang onto MI, WI and PA then it's not gonna matter what else happens. NV will probably stay blue as it has since 2008. AZ and GA could both go red, Biden could fail to pick up NC, and he would still have 276 EV (six more than he needs).

The only edge case scenario with the above would be if NE changed to winner-take-all without ME doing the same, and then Biden somehow lost NV. That would set up a 269-269 tie; but it's so unlikely that I feel like I just wasted a paragraph even bringing it up.

For those still concerned about the Green Party, their numbers plummeted in 2020 in MI, WI and PA. It's my pet theory that a lot of people voted for Jill Stein in 2016 just to try and prove (perhaps to themselves?) that they weren't misogynists for not voting Hillary. Still bitter? I don't blame you, but it's over and done.

Whatever the reason for 2016, I don't see much impetus for any kind of comeback for the Green Party this time around... knock on wood.

So anyway, that's my thinking. MI, WI and PA stay with us, and we'll be good to go.

Polls are useless and only time will tell, but I have a lot of hope because 2016 was the only time we lost ANY of those three states since 1988 - and that year there was an incumbent Republican. This time it's an incumbent Democrat. 2016 was a freak aberration and I strongly doubt it will happen again this year.

Bottom line, of course we cannot afford any kind of complacency, and of course we also need to take back the House and keep the Senate -- but I do not believe we should be losing as much sleep as some of us have been since last Thursday night.