It's not going to be Shapiro. There are many people who will say his Judaism and Zionism is political suicide right now

[MyMission]

135. I think it's the opposite

I think more people would vote for a gay VP over a Jewish one.

I'm a numbers person.
We have 3 times as many LGBTQ as Jews in the US population, as I discovered when I googled.

A 2022 Gallup poll concluded that 7.1% of adult Americans identified as LGBT.

As of 2020, the American Jewish population is estimated at 7.5 million people, accounting for 2.4% of the total US population.

Both groups have friends and family who are supportive advocates, but by virtue of the numbers the LGBTQ community has more.

Both groups are immersed throughout our society. The majority of Dems would support either candidate. Non-Dems (and non voters) may be swayed based on the VP pick. As a Jew, I am sadly familiar with antisemitic tropes, and I must point out the "Jews secretly in control" trope which would cause (too) many to not vote for Shapiro. The fact that Kamala's husband is Jewish is tolerable to some who would not want vote for another Jew, lest we have too much power.

If the war in Israel hadn't happened, or if i still lived in NYC where I was born and raised, I might believe the US is ready to elect a Jew to such a high office. Not this time around, but hopefully in the future. May i live to see the day! Odds are good.