Even if you don't trust polling, you should at least trust polling TRENDS

[getagrip_already]

8. Trends are only valid if they dont change their turnout models

But they are constantly changing those, and they should.

But in reality, they have no way to know who, or in what numbers, will show up at the polls.

Legitimate pollsters lose a lot of sleep over this.

Will more young woman turn out? More white men? More blacks/hispanics? More young voters? Etc, etc.

Changes in those model inputs will change the outcome of a poll.

Are they changing them based on recent enthusiasm, or keeping pre-kamala ratios?

Are rasmusen like pollsters going to lean more towards a red wave?

We dont know. We do know they can easily impact results that will impact trends.

So dont be shocked if the trends change.

All that said, im much happier with good numbers and trends than bad, i just know that can change.