Matthew Dowd (On Deadline White House) Said This Polling Firm Is The One He Trusts (A+)

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Jump in Enthusiasm for 2024 Race
Harris picks up support among young voters and ‘double haters’

August 14th, 2024

West Long Branch, NJ – Democrats’ enthusiasm has skyrocketed since they swapped their presidential nominee. The latest national Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds voter support for Vice President Kamala Harris slightly higher than it was for President Joe Biden, while the number who back former President Donald Trump has remained steady. Harris has higher favorability ratings than either Trump or Biden, which means there has been in a decline in the number of double haters, that is voters who dislike both nominees. Harris also has a clear advantage over Trump in being seen as having the necessary stamina for the job and matches or slightly edges her Republican opponent on understanding people’s concerns, representing American values, and bringing about change.

A huge shift in enthusiasm is the most vivid finding in the poll. While the number of voters who were at least somewhat enthusiastic about the Trump versus Biden rematch had been increasing throughout the year, it never topped 50%. Now that the contest is Trump versus Harris, voter enthusiasm has risen to 68%. The biggest jump has been among Democrats (from 46% in June to 85% now), but there has also been a notable increase in enthusiasm among independents (from 34% to 53%). Among Republicans, enthusiasm for the Trump-Harris contest (71%) is identical to what it was for the Trump-Biden rematch in June (71%).

Monmouth also asked specifically about enthusiasm for each party’s choice of nominee. The national electorate’s enthusiasm for Trump as the Republican nominee (41%) is basically unchanged from February (40%). However, enthusiasm for Harris as the Democratic standard-bearer (47%) is significantly higher than it was for Biden earlier this year (32%). Currently, Democratic voters are slightly more enthusiastic about having Harris as their nominee (92%) than Republicans are about having Trump at the top of their ticket (84%). Back in February, Republican enthusiasm for Trump was similarly high (80%), but Democratic enthusiasm about the prospect of Biden being their nominee was significantly lower (62%).

“This is clearly a different ballgame. The nominee change has raised the ceiling for potential Democratic support in the presidential contest by a small but crucial amount, at least for now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A lot to unpack here:


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_081424/