What's Driving Kamala Harris' Surge in the Polls

[getagrip_already]

6. I reject your hypothisis..

This is not a tossup election, although we should treat it that way.

First, national polls dont mean much in an electoral college system.

Second, polls are garbage. They have an achiles heal of not knowing who, or how many, of any demo is going to turn out, and that is how they are constructed. Small changes in a turnout model will result ineasureable changes in the final numbers.

Will it be a red wave election? Blue wave? Roe wave? Youth wave,? Grumpy white guy wave? 2020 election? 2016 election? 2022 election?
Some combination? None of that?

Add to that there is a distinct polling bias. Phone polls only reach predominantly conservative leaning respondants; retiree, stay at homes, work at homes, lonely people who answer every call.

Even online polls are biased because they are.opt in. Pollstets have to trust self reported profiles to try to sort respondents. But was the bot honest?

And finally, likely voter polls dont measure voters who havent recently voted. The young, women who just werent motivated to turn out before, and other voters who are registered but just havent voted but will this time.

That last group is what surprised us in 2016. Nontraditional white male voters who felt disaffected because nobody held their racist/mysogynist views. They turned out in droves. They were invisible to pollsters.

So this whole horserace thing is defeatest. We are not behind. We do need to fight in every battleground state. We do need to gotv.

We need win too big to steal.